SACRUS Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Last few runs of the ecm, gfs, and associated ensembles continue to advertise a warm up next weekend into the week of the 7th. How strong and long the period lasts is still in question, but perhaps a bit of Indian Summer a week after our October snowstorm. Strong trough digging into the west coast with ridge building into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Yeah. Looks like a big time heat surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 big storm at the end of the month, around the 22nd. Could be a long island crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 big storm at the end of the month, around the 22nd. Could be a long island crusher. lol, where did you hear that from? Or is it from a lack of sleep from staying up waiting for the euro to come out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 lol, where did you hear that from? Or is it from a lack of sleep from staying up waiting for the euro to come out!! My forecasts are original. My own research points to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 My forecasts are original. My own research points to this. So you have some bit of confidence in this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 My forecasts are original. My own research points to this. I'll send you a $25 gift card to anywhere if we get a big snow event in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I'll send you a $25 gift card to anywhere if we get a big snow event in November. I will top that, I will shovel his snow naked, if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I'll send you a $25 gift card to anywhere if we get a big snow event in November. sizzler? can we go to sizzler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 We just broke 1925's snowfall record and that year saw 67 degrees on 11/8...The average long term November max is 69.7...It hit 74 last year...Last 30 years averaged 71.6...Long term minimum is 25.7...Last 30 years is 27.7...34 was the min last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 AO is going to be positive once again so no suprise here.With low dewpoints though it is actually going to feel nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 The Euro and Euro ensembles are showing a west based -NAO develop in the long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 The Euro and Euro ensembles are showing a west based -NAO develop in the long range... If so, then we're right on track as far as I'm concerned. Expecting the pattern change from warm to cold in the East to occur around Nov 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 If so, then we're right on track as far as I'm concerned. Expecting the pattern change from warm to cold in the East to occur around Nov 20th or so. That bodes very well for our winter being very snowy and cold in the months of December and much of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Yup, looking like we return to cold around the 12th-15th IMO, with the potential for actual almost real-winter-like cold after the 20th... impressive blocking does look to begin over the Davis Straits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 OT, but the first blizzard warning has been issued for Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 The weenie question is will we have a bonafide threat come late November?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 If so, then we're right on track as far as I'm concerned. Expecting the pattern change from warm to cold in the East to occur around Nov 20th or so. Larry Cosgrove will caution that the persistent presence of a Baffin Island Block could lead to another, longer lasting, blast of colder values at mid-month. Both the European and American model suites are hinting at a rather vast blocking signature covering northern Canada and Greenland, set against a ridge complex across the northern Pacific Ocean. That couplet of positive 500MB height anomalies would doom most of the lower 48 states to a long period of cold with storm threats along the southern and eastern coastlines of the U.S. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/houston-tx-and-vicinity-weather-forecast-halloween-monday-october-31-2011 <a href="http://ad.doubleclick.net/jump/cdg.examiner2.houston-tx/nws/pos3/article;tt=weather;plc=houston;chn=news;subc=weather%20%26%20climate;sect=weather%20%26%20climate;nid=39183581;top=news;top=weather%20%26%20climate;top=houston%20weather%20forecast;top=warmer;top=warm%20start%20to%20november%20locally;top=more%20humid;top=showers%20wednesday;ed=houston-tx;uid=1464251;etid=3775;pgtp=article;tile=3;pos=3;sz=300x250;kw=;ord=962454170?" target="_blank"><img src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/cdg.examiner2.houston-tx/nws/pos3/article;tt=weather;plc=houston;chn=news;subc=weather%20%26%20climate;sect=weather%20%26%20climate;nid=39183581;top=news;top=weather%20%26%20climate;top=houston%20weather%20forecast;top=warmer;top=warm%20start%20to%20november%20locally;top=more%20humid;top=showers%20wednesday;ed=houston-tx;uid=1464251;etid=3775;pgtp=article;tile=3;pos=3;sz=300x250;kw=;ord=962454170?" width="300" height="250" alt="" /></a> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 just when I was ready to say goodbye to summer, you guys suck me back in with a heat ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 big storm 11/22-25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 big storm 11/22-25 agreed on that Trials, my thinking as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 a thanksgiving snowstorm would be pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 a warm and dry Nov would be really nice.... take a break from the extreme weather, tee it up a few more times, get out and get stuff done around the house in preparation for a loooong winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 just when I was ready to say goodbye to summer, you guys suck me back in with a heat ridge Oh come on, we all knew this was coming. It's one warm month after the next with a crazy snow event in between. That's fine though, 70s will feel amazing considering our growing season has now ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 this should be called the "back to reality" thread. we basically had a once in a lifetime dream weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 this should be called the "back to reality" thread. we basically had a once in a lifetime dream weekend. I still have traces of snow left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I know it's a long way off but you guys need go check out the long range GFS, it shows a massive +PNA ridge and -NAO in the 11-15 day period. If this is right it's going to get mighty cold around here by mid month. Euro ensembles also agree on this pattern change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I know it's a long way off but you guys need go check out the long range GFS, it shows a massive +PNA ridge and -NAO in the 11-15 day period. If this is right it's going to get mighty cold around here by mid month. Euro ensembles also agree on this pattern change.... Unfortunately, thus far at least, the global ensembles don't agree. There's actually a fairly large neutral/-PNA signal which, even despite some modestly favorable positive height anomalies into the davis straight & western Greenland, will cause our pattern to be rather unsupportive of any frozen precipitation or cold air surges for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Unfortunately, thus far at least, the global ensembles don't agree. There's actually a fairly large neutral/-PNA signal which, even despite some modestly favorable positive height anomalies into the davis straight & western Greenland, will cause our pattern to be rather unsupportive of any frozen precipitation or cold air surges for the time being. big storm end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Unfortunately, thus far at least, the global ensembles don't agree. There's actually a fairly large neutral/-PNA signal which, even despite some modestly favorable positive height anomalies into the davis straight & western Greenland, will cause our pattern to be rather unsupportive of any frozen precipitation or cold air surges for the time being. That's true John, would be good if we can get agreement from the global ensembles. They all seem to at least agree on a -NAO for the time being. If the GFS is right though, that's a mighty cold look to the pattern. Only time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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