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November Obs/Banter thread


Mr Torchey

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Well big night in our home, we are decorating the house for xmas, we will be away tday week back home in South Carolina and thats usually when we do it. So some festivus cheer, some libations some xmas music blazing fire. Found this heritage collection thats out for the holidays........brings back memories!

Happy weekend weenies.

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Metherb..how much snow did you get in Stafford?

I had 11.5".

My folks in Somers had about 8" but I never measured...too much going on there. My family and I had been planning a trip long before the snow but after the morning of 10/31, I'm kind of glad that we had other plans. The power came back on Thursday while I was away so I guess it worked out.

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Well big night in our home, we are decorating the house for xmas, we will be away tday week back home in South Carolina and thats usually when we do it. So some festivus cheer, some libations some xmas music blazing fire. Found this heritage collection thats out for the holidays........brings back memories!

Happy weekend weenies.

Geneseeing is belivin'

Snowed at a good clip in Gardner. Nada here

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Well big night in our home, we are decorating the house for xmas, we will be away tday week back home in South Carolina and thats usually when we do it. So some festivus cheer, some libations some xmas music blazing fire. Found this heritage collection thats out for the holidays........brings back memories!

Happy weekend weenies.

Nice! Don't forget the extra TP for the morning.....

;)

Enjoys

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If anyone wants to be depressed, check out JB's column today---has a map out from the 01-02 winter (Water temps) and talks about the big flip to warm in Jan...ouch....any mention of 01-02 brings chills to my spine....:thumbsdown:

Unfortunately, I think he has a valid point. This is a bit unlike JB, since he usually has a cold, snowy bias. The SSTA maps from 11/13/01 and 11/10/11 do look very similar (see below), particularly with regard to the large negative anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska and the positive anomalies in the central and western Pacific. This setup implies continued positive EPO and negative PNA, equalling a roaring Pacific jet and persistent troughiness along the west coast. La Nina is also pretty similar looking, which led to a strong SE ridge that winter, and so far this year as well.

Of course, the one major wild card is the AO and NAO. If these can go deeply negative for an extended period of time this winter, we may be able to push back the torch invasion from the Pacific and get a decent winter from blockiness, like we did for 6-8 blissful weeks last winter. However, so far I'm not liking what I see...

anomnight.11.10.2011.gif

anomnight.11.13.2001.gif

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In terms of the north Atlantic, SSTA maps are not too warm when compared to last year with slightly above anomalies immediately around Greenland and colder than normal to the south in the north-central Atlantic. Since the NAO is tied in the SSTA profile of the north Atlantic, it may be tougher to get a sustained negative NAO this year if one goes by the SSTA profiles. Like last year, it will take a strongly negative NAO to push back the torch from the Pacific. Once the negative NAO went in early February, so did the cold, snowy pattern for SNE. If it weren't for this, last winter probably would've been a dud...

anomnight.11.11.2010.gif

anomnight.11.10.2011.gif

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Just had a sleet/snow shower move through about a half hour ago, feels like November out there tonight, fireplace is roaring. Bad news from Granby the next town over one of our competitors shop's is fully involved in fire and the wind was making it a terrible fight, looks like much of it is a loss.

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The north atlantic has a very strong tripole configuration that is favorable for a -NAO. It looks more impressive than last year. Not that I would ever forecast a block like last winter, but a -NAO will probably be favored.

Thank you. That is exactly what is shown on that SSTA map....Not to draw a comparison to 2009, but a very similar configuration of the tri-pole....

post-334-0-56330100-1321052764.gif

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The north atlantic has a very strong tripole configuration that is favorable for a -NAO. It looks more impressive than last year. Not that I would ever forecast a block like last winter, but a -NAO will probably be favored.

With the Pacific the way it is, it's going to take some pretty strong blocking to get a good pattern for us. It could certainly happen. A slightly negative or an east based negative NAO may not be enough to do the trick for us. Time will tell...

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Well big night in our home, we are decorating the house for xmas, we will be away tday week back home in South Carolina and thats usually when we do it. So some festivus cheer, some libations some xmas music blazing fire. Found this heritage collection thats out for the holidays........brings back memories!

Happy weekend weenies.

SCREAMERS!!! Love the Genny Scream Ale.

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