New England Storm Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 It is nice torch weather for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Yeah Phil...looks like we are all locked in for sub zero wind chills and 12" of snow. Just brutal, brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I thought Kevin said the cold is here to stay in 9 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Yeah Phil...looks like we are all locked in for sub zero wind chills and 12" of snow. Just brutal, brutal cold. i think we are looking at the last week of the month at the earliest. there aren't any really strong signals for a big shift right now...so add that to the fact that guidance is notoriously too fast in actually establishing a new pattern...i don't see anything other than short-lived cool shots for now. maybe we start to beat back the very large + departures a bit with closer to normal type days, but below normal seems like it's quite a ways off right now. i don't have the ec ens past day 10 but given what they look like at day 10 - i wouldn't look for cold into our area until thanksgiving week *at least*. we've got a decent -nao progged to develop and it can't do crap to compete against the strength of that -pna arrangement right now...too early. i guess could see where down the road a ways just the mass of that frigid air overwhelms the pattern a bit and is able to bleed down and flatten things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 tank tops, sun tanning and frisbees? picnics in the park? beaches crowded...flag football games on turkey day with shorts and t-shirts? Tha's not a warm pattern at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 wow...bob's gone green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Tha's not a warm pattern at all. well for western canada, yeah i agree. it's a pretty damn cold one for the northern rockies/western canada, maybe northern high plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 wow...bob's gone green. That's Sir Bob to you, Mr. red tagger... Geez that pattern is ugly, but it is only mid November. Plenty of time for it to change at the end of the month, early December. Works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 well for western canada, yeah i agree. it's a pretty damn cold one for the northern rockies/western canada, maybe northern high plains. I think much of that is weighted twds the first 3 days next week which agreed are torch..after that it cools off significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 i think we are looking at the last week of the month at the earliest. there aren't any really strong signals for a big shift right now...so add that to the fact that guidance is notoriously too fast in actually establishing a new pattern...i don't see anything other than short-lived cool shots for now. maybe we start to beat back the very large + departures a bit with closer to normal type days, but below normal seems like it's quite a ways off right now. i don't have the ec ens past day 10 but given what they look like at day 10 - i wouldn't look for cold into our area until thanksgiving week *at least*. we've got a decent -nao progged to develop and it can't do crap to compete against the strength of that -pna arrangement right now...too early. i guess could see where down the road a ways just the mass of that frigid air overwhelms the pattern a bit and is able to bleed down and flatten things a bit. The blocking has been slowly trending a little weaker on the models...not sure this AK beast of a storm has anything to do with it?? Anyways I agree...anything long lasting probably won't come until after T-Day. We still have that massive west coast trough which is helping to keep the cold locked into western Canada. This is a good thing since we need the source region snow covered anyways. Usually down the road, the dam eventually breaks and a winter-like pattern can ensue. FWIW it looks very PDO-ish and not so La Nina-ish for November. I correlated it to the MEI and PDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 better off now than a month from now, imo. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/pna.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 The blocking has been slowly trending a little weaker on the models...not sure this AK beast of a storm has anything to do with it?? Anyways I agree...anything long lasting probably won't come until after T-Day. We still have that massive west coast trough which is helping to keep the cold locked into western Canada. This is a good thing since we need the source region snow covered anyways. Usually down the road, the dam eventually breaks and a winter-like pattern can ensue. FWIW it looks very PDO-ish and not so La Nina-ish for November. I correlated it to the MEI and PDO yeah one of the posters in the main thread was suggesting the same, iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 you know it's going to be a while when even the GFS days 10-16 is blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Just don't agree with any of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Just don't agree with any of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 LOL. bring it on. i'm ready for snow season. i hope things change around but by the same token, i'm fine with things the way they are right now. i'd rather have that frigid air building in canada and poised to make things fun in december as opposed to having all the cP air diving down into the US right now and modifying into 30s/40s/50s. when that cold finally lets go from western and central canada in a couple of weeks it should make for a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 In Canada?? Cool. its hideously warm outside for this time of year. on MTL sportradio, they give the forecast every 30 mins the AM sports guys started whooping it up when they heard the forecast that it was going to cool down for a couple days, and then warm back up again!.....it was kinda funny the way they were celebrating, they started playing clips and celebrating like they won the SB or something LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 pretty good slug of rain coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 The blocking has been slowly trending a little weaker on the models...not sure this AK beast of a storm has anything to do with it?? Anyways I agree...anything long lasting probably won't come until after T-Day. We still have that massive west coast trough which is helping to keep the cold locked into western Canada. This is a good thing since we need the source region snow covered anyways. Usually down the road, the dam eventually breaks and a winter-like pattern can ensue. FWIW it looks very PDO-ish and not so La Nina-ish for November. I correlated it to the MEI and PDO What do you mean? Those two charts look pretty similar to me. The pattern the first half of this month looks like a classic Nina and/or -PDO november. You've also got a finer scale on the PDO chart which makes the correlation appear stronger. I pointed out a few days ago that a transition to colder late November would make sense as the cold air has a tendency to bleed farther east from western Canada in December than November (perhaps as the wavelengths get longer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 What do you mean? Those two charts look pretty similar to me. The pattern the first half of this month looks like a classic Nina and/or -PDO november. You've also got a finer scale on the PDO chart which makes the correlation appear stronger. I pointed out a few days ago that a transition to colder late November would make sense as the cold air has a tendency to bleed farther east from western Canada in December than November (perhaps as the wavelengths get longer). I mean it looks like how typical November -PDO pattern with a big trough in western Canada. That's all I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I mean it looks like how typical November -PDO pattern with a big trough in western Canada. That's all I meant. But isn't that also shown in the Nina correlation as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Theres no reason to rush a colder pattern in now, Let the cold and snowpack build over the regions we need to have it in western and central canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 But isn't that also shown in the Nina correlation as well? MEI correlation had hints of some ridging in the sw, and also was not as strong with the big NPAC ridge. There are similarities because these two features are somewhat related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Heavy heavy problems at NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Heavy heavy problems at NCEP. Yea.. I thought the gfs was back on to summer time for a bit. I think it's time for a server upgrade over there.. it's a government agency for God sakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Yea.. I thought the gfs was back on to summer time for a bit. I think it's time for a server upgrade over there.. it's a government agency for God sakes I think it's power problems from what I hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Wouldn't be shocked if Pete sees a few predawn flakes tomorrrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I think it's power problems from what I hear. CL&P runs NCEP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Could be a deceiving day tomorrow where highs are early in the am..like 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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