skierinvermont Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 12z ECM today was probably even worse...once that vortex over Baffin Island (+NAO) disappears and the Atlantic starts to improve, a huge polar vortex builds into the Beaufort Sea and blocks any cold air from entering Eastern Canada. We have a solid -NAO by Day 8 on the 12z ECM but there's absolutely no cold air available with the monster +EPO/-PNA. It looks as if a piece of the PV over northern Alaska might eventually break off and enter the Northern Plains/Canadian Prairies by Day 10, which could end our torch if the cold air presses far enough east and doesn't just get stuck over the High Plains. The departures we'd accumulate by that point are ridiculous though....New Hampshire is still at +12C 850s at Day 10 on the ECM with a 588dm ridge over Bermuda. The 12z ECM ENS were still pretty mild at Day 10 but it looked as if that cold air from NW Canada might be on its way with the -NAO strengthening and a front sagging east: Any storm would track really far north, however, with the strong troughing out west... Such a transition would match up pretty well with ENSO/PDO climo for Nov and Dec. The cold air tends to stay locked up in western Canada during November -PDO and/or -ENSO and has a tendency to bleed farther east (perhaps as the wavelengths get longer?) in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Don't get me wrong, we still have some decent sized patches of snow, especially in wooded areas. Piles are still quite large. But there's been an immense difference since when I arrived back on campus Sunday night after being in NYC metro for the weekend; we went from a solid 2-4" snow cover in the forest then to just isolated skiffs of snow today. Being in the upper 50s yesterday and low 60s today has kept the melt steady despite the low dewpoints, and I think tonight will be an absolute killer in the higher elevations with the warm 850s; our projected low is 42F. I would think that the snow will be defeated tomorrow outside of plowed piles with 63F and sunny the forecast. Ski resorts trying to open in time for Thanksgiving are dead in the water with the projected pattern, no chances for any snowfall outside of a few flurries Friday in the highest elevations following a large rainstorm. Looks like a miserable regime for the most part. i'm living for snow and the slopes ...i think it sustains my mood to a degree now i did get outside today and walk around breakheart reservation(wakefield, ma) and go to the driving range but i rank that up there with a thick fog as far as wx induced happiness goes i have some miles i may use and book somewhere cheap out west in Cali heck i'm looking to rent out there in the donner/truckee area for a couple few months.....6500' in truckee is prolly good for 275" year of sierra cement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I just need normal temps to return. Overnights in the 20s highs in the 40s so they can make snow at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 8 November the year 11 BOS +13 BDL+8 OVD+11 ORH+14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 8 October the year 11 BOS +13 BDL+8 OVD+11 ORH+14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 is that an LIT ? might be able to cook the turkey outside this year, fried turkey FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Looking at mid 70's or better here in southern Spain for the next four or five days. Joe would have loved the beaches near Ponta de Sagres, Portugal (the end of the world before Columbus proved otherwise). People sunbathing and surfing, but a little cool for a lot of swimming. I want the wx pattern to turn cold again for my return on the 17th...... The GFS has so much cold air spilling over the pole and covering Canada...crime to keep it locked up there. Western Canada will be frigid. The cold is here in our side of the pole, but it will take its sweet time coming east with such a strong -PNA. We go through this every Nina it seems. Western Canada cools down, but it takes 2+ weeks for it to come east. I don't see this being different...at least in terms of more prolonged change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 is that an LIT ? might be able to cook the turkey outside this year, fried turkey FTW? What is a LIT? And you never answered my PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 Looking at mid 70's or better here in southern Spain for the next four or five days. Joe would have loved the beaches near Ponta de Sagres, Portugal (the end of the world before Columbus proved otherwise). People sunbathing and surfing, but a little cool for a lot of swimming. I want the wx pattern to turn cold again for my return on the 17th...... The GFS has so much cold air spilling over the pole and covering Canada...crime to keep it locked up there. Rick!! You could have just gone to the Hamptons Islip shattered its record with a high temp of 70 today, next week looks like an absolute inferno!! Have fun and enjoy the tapas and wine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I just need normal temps to return. Overnights in the 20s highs in the 40s so they can make snow at night ya last year wa wa opened on thanksgiving looking at last year's temps in ORH it wasn't until the 19'th of november before below freezing lows settled in for the duration.... http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORH/2010/11/1/MonthlyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 What is a LIT? And you never answered my PM long island ice tea silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 What is a LIT? And you never answered my PM long island tea (iced) i'd assume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 long island ice tea silly Lol, answer my PM. Yes it is, for some reason I could not get warm today,might be getting sick, yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 8 October the year 11 BOS +13 BDL+8 OVD+11 ORH+14 We went back in time to October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 We went back in time to October? ooooooooooops, congrats on the Daily Torch Award Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 ya last year wa wa opened on thanksgiving looking at last year's temps in ORH it wasn't until the 19'th of november before below freezing lows settled in for the duration.... http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORH/2010/11/1/MonthlyHistory.html I was talking to a friend of mine who works there about the new lift. They claim to be on schedule for it to open December 15. $2.3 million dollars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 12z ECM today was probably even worse...once that vortex over Baffin Island (+NAO) disappears and the Atlantic starts to improve, a huge polar vortex builds into the Beaufort Sea and blocks any cold air from entering Eastern Canada. We have a solid -NAO by Day 8 on the 12z ECM but there's absolutely no cold air available with the monster +EPO/-PNA. It looks as if a piece of the PV over northern Alaska might eventually break off and enter the Northern Plains/Canadian Prairies by Day 10, which could end our torch if the cold air presses far enough east and doesn't just get stuck over the High Plains. The departures we'd accumulate by that point are ridiculous though....New Hampshire is still at +12C 850s at Day 10 on the ECM with a 588dm ridge over Bermuda. The 12z ECM ENS were still pretty mild at Day 10 but it looked as if that cold air from NW Canada might be on its way with the -NAO strengthening and a front sagging east: Any storm would track really far north, however, with the strong troughing out west... Yeah it's too bad we're sort of wasting a good Atlantic set-up. In my previous post I meant the vortex was in the Beaufort Sea not Baffin Island...I don't know my polar geography like you Anyway, like CoastalWx said it is going to take a little bit of time but there are definitely some good signs out in the 11-15 day time frame. Whether or not they are actually good by the time we get there remains to be seen I guess. Btw Nate, do you know if 1975-76 was a La Nina? Sort of OT but I noticed DXR's record high from today was in 1975 not that will translate over to how this winter might be but I was just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 Lol, answer my PM. Yes it is, for some reason I could not get warm today,might be getting sick, yuck. son was home all 5 days from preschool last week, wife is on the Zpac and Tylenol with codeine cough syrup, she was coughing so much she strained her abs, doc hooked her up with the good stuff Pharmacist said it was the worst season for URI that she had ever seen, and that the flu had not really even begun around here..............I take two of the EMERGEN C paks a day..........good stuff, drink them man, mind over matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 son was home all 5 days from preschool last week, wife is on the Zpac and Tylenol with codeine cough syrup, she was coughing so much she strained her abs, doc hooked her up with the good stuff Pharmacist said it was the worst season for URI that she had ever seen, and that the flu had not really even begun around here..............I take two of the EMERGEN C paks a day..........good stuff, drink them man, mind over matter What is PCPCM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 What is PCPCM. I dont remember.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Yeah it's too bad we're sort of wasting a good Atlantic set-up. In my previous post I meant the vortex was in the Beaufort Sea not Baffin Island...I don't know my polar geography like you Anyway, like CoastalWx said it is going to take a little bit of time but there are definitely some good signs out in the 11-15 day time frame. Whether or not they are actually good by the time we get there remains to be seen I guess. Btw Nate, do you know if 1975-76 was a La Nina? Sort of OT but I noticed DXR's record high from today was in 1975 not that will translate over to how this winter might be but I was just curious. It was a strong La Nina in a multi-year event, following a weak -ENSO winter. December and January were quite cold in the Northeast with a MJO burst/+PNA similar to Jan 2011 in Jan 1976, but the rest of the winter was a torch. Parts of the Northeast managed to finish normal but Feb/Mar was an oven: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I was talking to a friend of mine who works there about the new lift. They claim to be on schedule for it to open December 15. $2.3 million dollars Wow, that's nuts. Sounds sweet, but I'm afraid I will have to see that to believe it... From looking at a trail map, they really need to get it open, is there any other way to access that terrain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 It was a strong La Nina in a multi-year event, following a weak -ENSO winter. December and January were quite cold in the Northeast with a MJO burst/+PNA similar to Jan 2011 in Jan 1976, but the rest of the winter was a torch. Parts of the Northeast managed to finish normal but Feb/Mar was an oven: I lost my bookmark, Do you or anyone have a link to those analog maps? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I lost my bookmark, Do you or anyone have a link to those analog maps? Thanks http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ Thanks nate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Wow, that's nuts. Sounds sweet, but I'm afraid I will have to see that to believe it... From looking at a trail map, they really need to get it open, is there any other way to access that terrain? The do have a carpet lift for about 200' of it, but other than that, beginners have to hoof it... I don't think they get it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The do have a carpet lift for about 200' of it, but other than that, beginners have to hoof it... I don't think they get it done Wait, the new lift is for that beginners area? What was wrong with the old one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Wait, the new lift is for that beginners area? What was wrong with the old one? Took over 10 minutes to get to the top of that lift... 2 wide open, flat beginner trails...lots of beginners on the mountain. 1 crappy triple chair. New one will be a high speed quad, 4 minutes. Under the chair, off to the side you can make some good air on the bumps... Just by chance their webcam is "stuck" on a pic from earlier today... showing parts of the lift being delivered (or something) crappy pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Took over 10 minutes to get to the top of that lift... 2 wide open, flat beginner trails...lots of beginners on the mountain. 1 crappy triple chair. New one will be a high speed quad, 4 minutes. Under the chair, off to the side you can make some good air on the bumps... Oh, ok. I do remember when I went up on that lift a few years ago taking double the time of the other lifts, and going up half the distance. Makes sense. A lot of families that go 1 or 2x a year use those lifts so they might want to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Oh, ok. I do remember when I went up on that lift a few years ago taking double the time of the other lifts, and going up half the distance. Makes sense. A lot of families that go 1 or 2x a year use those lifts so they might want to get it done. see updated post above... Also, cheezy video showing Doppelmeyer installing parts of the new lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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