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November Obs/Banter thread


Mr Torchey

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Snow almost completely wiped out now in Rindge, NH on the Hampshire Country School campus. Partly cloudy with a temperature of 60.1F, a complete torch for November 8th in the Monadnocks. It doesn't look as if much snow will be in the forecast until after Thanksgiving with the -PNA dominating for a while now.

So how was your first taste of a new England winter? A little better than dobbs ferry huh

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So how was your first taste of a new England winter? A little better than dobbs ferry huh

I lived in Vermont for college so I'm pretty accustomed to a New England winter, but the 25" in Rindge on 10/29 was impressive to say the least. Dobbs Ferry did pick up 10" according to spotter reports, which seems even more anomalous than the huge snowfall the Monadnocks had prior to Halloween.

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Snow almost completely wiped out now in Rindge, NH on the Hampshire Country School campus. Partly cloudy with a temperature of 60.1F, a complete torch for November 8th in the Monadnocks. It doesn't look as if much snow will be in the forecast until after Thanksgiving with the -PNA dominating for a while now.

Lol, the ECM OP last night was like the worst pattern possible. Big vortex sitting up in Baffin Bay with a CONUS blow torch. The ensembles looked a little better as the cold was more spread out across Canada but I agree, we'll have to wait probably until the first week of December before we get into a below normal or at least near normal temperature regime. Of course with that SE ridge the farther north you are, the better off you will be.

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:lol: Lol they set up a sprinkler to cool off in. hair and pony o's are flying thru the air as they do ce do around in a circle..arms interlocked

I can see Pete enclosing is lawn and pointing the AC outside keeping the air cold enough to prevent snow melt

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Lol, the ECM OP last night was like the worst pattern possible. Big vortex sitting up in Baffin Bay with a CONUS blow torch. The ensembles looked a little better as the cold was more spread out across Canada but I agree, we'll have to wait probably until the first week of December before we get into a below normal or at least near normal temperature regime. Of course with that SE ridge the farther north you are, the better off you will be.

12z ECM today was probably even worse...once that vortex over Baffin Island (+NAO) disappears and the Atlantic starts to improve, a huge polar vortex builds into the Beaufort Sea and blocks any cold air from entering Eastern Canada. We have a solid -NAO by Day 8 on the 12z ECM but there's absolutely no cold air available with the monster +EPO/-PNA. It looks as if a piece of the PV over northern Alaska might eventually break off and enter the Northern Plains/Canadian Prairies by Day 10, which could end our torch if the cold air presses far enough east and doesn't just get stuck over the High Plains. The departures we'd accumulate by that point are ridiculous though....New Hampshire is still at +12C 850s at Day 10 on the ECM with a 588dm ridge over Bermuda.

The 12z ECM ENS were still pretty mild at Day 10 but it looked as if that cold air from NW Canada might be on its way with the -NAO strengthening and a front sagging east:

Any storm would track really far north, however, with the strong troughing out west...

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Western Canada will be frigid. The cold is here in our side of the pole, but it will take its sweet time coming east with such a strong -PNA. We go through this every Nina it seems. Western Canada cools down, but it takes 2+ weeks for it to come east. I don't see this being different...at least in terms of more prolonged change.

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I'm surprised.. there's still patches of snow south of Middletown on RT 9 in CT. I guess it has to do with the water content.

Don't get me wrong, we still have some decent sized patches of snow, especially in wooded areas. Piles are still quite large. But there's been an immense difference since when I arrived back on campus Sunday night after being in NYC metro for the weekend; we went from a solid 2-4" snow cover in the forest then to just isolated skiffs of snow today. Being in the upper 50s yesterday and low 60s today has kept the melt steady despite the low dewpoints, and I think tonight will be an absolute killer in the higher elevations with the warm 850s; our projected low is 42F. I would think that the snow will be defeated tomorrow outside of plowed piles with 63F and sunny the forecast. Ski resorts trying to open in time for Thanksgiving are dead in the water with the projected pattern, no chances for any snowfall outside of a few flurries Friday in the highest elevations following a large rainstorm. Looks like a miserable regime for the most part.

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