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November Obs/Banter thread


Mr Torchey

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Not the first time I heard about crappy forecasts from them.

I also think there's a difference between a forecast I'd give to the general public and a forecast I'd give to a utility to start preparing.

Thursday morning I probably would have been telling NU to start getting mutual aid on standby because of potential. By Friday morning it seemed like a sure bet to me this was going to be big.

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How does Wiz have power and you don't? You live on the same street

He's on Farmington Ave. The main streets are lit up.

There were hundreds of utility poles damaged or destroyed in town.... so I understand why it has taken a long time but 9 nights is getting a bit excessive.

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I also think there's a difference between a forecast I'd give to the general public and a forecast I'd give to a utility to start preparing.

Thursday morning I probably would have been telling NU to start getting mutual aid on standby because of potential. By Friday morning it seemed like a sure bet to me this was going to be big.

I would love to know the inner thinking of what happened. Who dropped the ball? Vendor? CL&P? Both? I think it's a case of both factors messing up..but it's one of those things where the planning clearly was way off base on CL&P's part.

The sad thing is...if we have another Carol or even Bob that made landfall over by BDR...the outages would be even worse!

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I also think there's a difference between a forecast I'd give to the general public and a forecast I'd give to a utility to start preparing.

Thursday morning I probably would have been telling NU to start getting mutual aid on standby because of potential. By Friday morning it seemed like a sure bet to me this was going to be big.

Well they obviously did not listen to their own forecaster, Webster is the Lead Met at DTN

http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/news/938265-196/expert-snowstorm-could-reach-catastrophic-level.html

Six to 12 inches of snow in January is one thing. New Englanders hardly notice that anymore. But in October, with plenty of leaves left on trees, the potential tree and power line damage could be catastrophic and leave a large number of people without power for several days, Webster said.

“The potential is very great,” he said. “To be honest, I think the potential for power outages is greater than it was before Tropical Storm Irene.”

“It you took the leaves off the trees, it would still be an unusual storm, but probably not one that threatened to be very damaging,” Webster said. “There’s going to be tremendous, if not astronomical, tree damage and power outages across the state, far worse than any hurricane we’ve ever had.”

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That article is very damaging to NU's public denigrating of Ryan and they should be exposed. That forecaster absolutely nailed it in terms of destruction and societal impact. Absolute disgrace they even went after Ryan. I hope the media exposes them for the frauds they are in this area alone.

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That article is very damaging to NU's public denigrating of Ryan and they should be exposed. That forecaster absolutely nailed in terms of destruction and societal impact. Absolute disgrace they even went after Ryan. I hope the media exposes them for the frauds they are in this area alone.

I think if a Euro shows a bomb 5 days out, we should just all lock it up, cause its going to happen.

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Looks like a nice pattern change just in time for Thanksgiving per indices. NCEP EPO goes neg around then with a rising PNA and falling NAO. Good times ahead.

Just in time for bear/deer season in the Poconos. Last year we had beautiful weather. Chilly but not bitter. Sunny and dry after loads of rain, with lots of water moving over 3,500 acres of diverse terrain. I'm thinking colder this hunting season!

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He's on Farmington Ave. The main streets are lit up.

There were hundreds of utility poles damaged or destroyed in town.... so I understand why it has taken a long time but 9 nights is getting a bit excessive.

Yeah my sister lives on Lexington and still nothing, she was looking at Farmington Ave all lit up and finally gave up and came to Canton

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I would love to know the inner thinking of what happened. Who dropped the ball? Vendor? CL&P? Both? I think it's a case of both factors messing up..but it's one of those things where the planning clearly was way off base on CL&P's part.

The sad thing is...if we have another Carol or even Bob that made landfall over by BDR...the outages would be even worse!

Well I think even if you knew things were going to be bad the best you could do was get crews lined up an extra 24 hours ahead of time. So many instead of 9 days without power you knock it down to 8?

I think the forecast issue was just a convenient excuse and not necessarily something that really impacted the outcome. Staffing levels, communication, and organization were all more important in getting the lights back on.

And yeah a Carol or Bob that made a direct landfall near BDR or HVN would turn 8 or 9 days of outages into 20 or 30. People love to live in wooded suburbs but you have to pay for that when a big storm comes. CL&P/NU have just been lucky that since Gloria there has been a drought of these kinds of tree-destroying storms but just because you go 25 years doesn't mean they're 1 in 25 year storms. Ice storms, hurricanes, early/late season snowstorms combined probably have a return time of once in every 10 years or so... we had just been lucky.

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I think your defense of NU has failed completely. I would find a new job, heads will roll.

I don't even care really... If you live in the sticks and don't have a generator, your fault.

I think a little over a week to restore power to 800K customers out (which is the largest ever) is pretty damn good, but thats me.

If people are saying that this is CT's 08' Icestorm then the restoration time was actually great. They even had to restore multiple transmission lines, which is a feat in itself. Many people in NH were out almost 3 weeks in that storm.

Here or there... tough luck with two of the greatest outages ever for CL&P in a matter of months apart.

If I were CL&P, Suck it up. Take the heat. Not much you can do now.

Oh and to Ginx I do think its CL&Ps fault. But Like Ryan said. prepping another 24 hours would have let to what 9 days over 8? People still would complain.

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Went out for a walk around the Jamaica pond this afternoon, really pretty perfect fall weather out there. Looks like it'll be pleasantly above normal for the next few days at least and dry. No complaints from me. Also it seems like we're close to peak colors for many trees in the boston area - see pic below - but there are still quite a few trees that are still all green. I did notice some big tree limbs down and one big tree that fell into the pond, so we were lucky here. Another inch or two and the damage would have risen exponentially.

I also saw about 5 or 6 squirrels and every single one was a rolly polly tub of lard, vicious winter incoming.

Jamaica Pond

post-1511-0-38844200-1320618473.jpg

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I think your defense of NU has failed completely. I would find a new job, heads will roll.

When Connecticut residents focus on the fact that CL&P is an entity of a Virginia based behemoth, the lawsuits against Dominion will gain quick political favor. I'm sure most residents of Connecticut do not realize that this model corporate citizen essentially forced the Town of Waterford to spend over one million dollars in a lengthy property tax appeal. This company has NO loyalty to Connecticut and, in Waterford's case, is capable of being overtly hostile to Connecticut.

Gov. Malloy has a perception problem in that the majority party in State politics has accepted campaing $$ lustily from the power industry. That said, Malloy is a skilled politician and has never been accused of being tone deaf. It's going to be an interesting week.

Can we take a poll. Who is going to have a worse week? CL&P or Penn State?

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Well I think even if you knew things were going to be bad the best you could do was get crews lined up an extra 24 hours ahead of time. So many instead of 9 days without power you knock it down to 8?

I think the forecast issue was just a convenient excuse and not necessarily something that really impacted the outcome. Staffing levels, communication, and organization were all more important in getting the lights back on.

And yeah a Carol or Bob that made a direct landfall near BDR or HVN would turn 8 or 9 days of outages into 20 or 30. People love to live in wooded suburbs but you have to pay for that when a big storm comes. CL&P/NU have just been lucky that since Gloria there has been a drought of these kinds of tree-destroying storms but just because you go 25 years doesn't mean they're 1 in 25 year storms. Ice storms, hurricanes, early/late season snowstorms combined probably have a return time of once in every 10 years or so... we had just been lucky.

It was an act of desperation that backfired.

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When Connecticut residents focus on the fact that CL&P is an entity of a Virginia based behemoth, the lawsuits against Dominion will gain quick political favor. I'm sure most residents of Connecticut do not realize that this model corporate citizen essentially forced the Town of Waterford to spend over one million dollars in a lengthy property tax appeal. This company has NO loyalty to Connecticut and, in Waterford's case, is capable of being overtly hostile to Connecticut.

Gov. Malloy has a perception problem in that the majority party in State politics has accepted campaing $ lustily from the power industry. That said, Malloy is a skilled politician and has never been accused of being tone deaf. It's going to be an interesting week.

Can we take a poll. Who is going to have a worse week? CL&P or Penn State?

Ray or Scott :arrowhead:

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When Connecticut residents focus on the fact that CL&P is an entity of a Virginia based behemoth, the lawsuits against Dominion will gain quick political favor. I'm sure most residents of Connecticut do not realize that this model corporate citizen essentially forced the Town of Waterford to spend over one million dollars in a lengthy property tax appeal. This company has NO loyalty to Connecticut and, in Waterford's case, is capable of being overtly hostile to Connecticut.

Gov. Malloy has a perception problem in that the majority party in State politics has accepted campaing $ lustily from the power industry. That said, Malloy is a skilled politician and has never been accused of being tone deaf. It's going to be an interesting week.

Can we take a poll. Who is going to have a worse week? CL&P or Penn State?

CL&P is owned by Northeast Utilities.

Dominion owns Millstone.

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I know underground has been mentioned here, which I don't think that will happen, but I do think that it might not be a bad idea to change all overhead service wires to underground. It would save a lot of time working on individual service calls and when the section of the circuit is restored, then everyone in that section has power. Just a thought.

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