David Reimer Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 I'm heading up Highway 287 with a plan of getting to at least Vernon if not further northwest. The new Norman HWO is really ramping up the wording for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 071827Z - 072000Z PORTIONS OF NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND INCREASING SVR WEATHER THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER W TX...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO FAR SERN KS. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT N-NW INTO THE REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IN ADDITION...PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE WARM SECTOR IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. THOUGH PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL W OF THE SRN PLAINS...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD/CLOUD STREETS WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS ARE DEEPENING OVER NWRN TX. THIS AREA OF IMPLIED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS JUXTAPOSED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J PER KG/ AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MESOSCALE AND BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AS WELL AS 50+ KT SWLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE LINE OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING...WHICH MAY FAVOR A DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE DURING THE INITIAL STAGES OF THIS CONVECTIVE EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EXCEEDING 200 M2 S-2 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES TO 40 KT/...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..GARNER.. 11/07/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Anybody know if we'll be fortunate enough for a few 18Z balloons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 RSO STATUS... GOES-E RSO WILL BE IN PLACE FROM 1845Z TO 1215Z 11/08 IN SUPPORT OF SOUTHERN REGION'S SEVERE WX OPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 New Tornado Watch being issued currently. From @WeatherWatches on Twitter: Tornado Watch #870 (OK/TX) is about to be issued until 10:00 pm EDT (9:00 pm CDT) Tornado Watch #870 will include Lawton, Altus, Wichita Falls, Vernon, Iowa Park, Elk City, Weatherford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 two most promising cells right now are northeast and southeast of CBS with other cells starting to go southwest of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 New Tornado Watch being issued currently. From @WeatherWatches on Twitter: Tornado Watch #870 (OK/TX) is about to be issued until 10:00 pm EDT (9:00 pm CDT) Tornado Watch #870 will include Lawton, Altus, Wichita Falls, Vernon, Iowa Park, Elk City, Weatherford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 One less window to be checking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 joel taylor posted a pic of a tornado near elk city (a tiny one) -- no warning tho? https://www.facebook.com/?ref=logo#!/photo.php?fbid=250649144984630&set=a.142972065752339.23616.114446321938247&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Cell to the west of Hollis looks like it's trying to wrap around. Gabrielson has a wall cloud up on a his cam, not sure if he's on the Hollis cell or the one just to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 joel taylor posted a pic of a tornado near elk city (a tiny one) -- no warning tho? https://www.facebook...&type=1 just saw that and hard to tell anything on radar, probably some serious updraft stretching early on in its development and right near the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Cell to the west of Hollis looks like it's trying to wrap around. Gabrielson has a wall cloud up on a his cam, not sure if he's on the Hollis cell or the one just to the southeast. That Hollis storm is likely dropping some nice hail....76 dBZ reflectivity, impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Here we go. Cell southwest of Eldorado looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Here we go. Cell southwest of Eldorado looks great. Funnel cloud reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 214 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... GREER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... NORTHERN HARMON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 300 PM CST * AT 214 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF VINSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BRINKMAN...MCKNIGHT...VINSON AND WILLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Eldorado storm is splitting. Right split should get real interesting over next half hour or so. Edit: Will be interesting to see what happens when the Eldorado left split flies up into the tornado warned cell to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Laubach has a lowing with the tor warned cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 the storms NW of Altus are currently in the better sheared environment closer to the upper trough but as the energy continues to swing east, the shear will continue to increase in SW OK into central OK. even though the tor warned storm NW of Altus is in a good environment, there is a lot of storms in the area and some storm interference could cause them to start congealing more into a cluster or squall line. i have a close eye on the storm SE of Altus. It isnt in the best shear now but instability is ample and it is more isolated. as the shear increases later, this cell def needs to be watched. looks to have a hook already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Cell west of KFDR wrapping up nicely. Looks like it just went tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Cell west of KFDR wrapping up nicely. Looks like it just went tornado warned. Tornado just reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Tornado just reported. Don't doubt it...133 kts Gate to Gate in the newest scan. Classic tornado look on reflectivity and velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 WOW...over 130kt g2g at 600ft. Without a doubt a tornado on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 64dbz debris ball on that sup west of Frederick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 and my target cell produces if i could have chased today i totally nailed my target. that cell is a beast. classic supercell. bet it looks gorgeous being all isolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 After a relatively long cycle the old Eldorado cell is organizing quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 barely anyone on that cell compared to the others. oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 barely anyone on that cell compared to the others. oops. was just thinking the same exact thing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I'm still maintaining hope for Texas based action based on latest SPC meso and radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Just got off the phone with David, quarter mile wide, violent tornado just to his SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 barely anyone on that cell compared to the others. oops. That's usually what happens when you jump on the first supercell of the day....which a lot of people did. I learned this lesson the hard way in the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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