Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Really one of the only times I've seen it even close to spot-on was the April 27th outbreak, which a lot of people could see the potential far before the runs ever came out for that afternoon (And it was kind of hard to overestimate the dynamics for that one). I've seen the HRRR nail plenty of setups....but also blow some too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I haven't looked at the current run of the NAM, but a few prior runs did hint at some convective-related stabilization across ctrl TX. I just mentioned it as a reason not to completely discount the HRRR just yet, so no I am not trolling. I'm not accusing you of trolling. It's just that I looked back through the past 8 runs of the NAM and they have been remarkably consistent w/r/t instability. The main difference is that each run has slowly increased instability and expanded the good instability northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I haven't looked at the current run of the NAM, but a few prior runs did hint at some convective-related stabilization across ctrl TX. I just mentioned it as a reason not to completely discount the HRRR just yet, so no I am not trolling. Here. Note that I am NOT taking these verbatim as is, just wanted to provide some evidence for what I was talking about: QPF Sfc T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I'm not accusing you of trolling. It's just that I looked back through the past 8 runs of the NAM and they have been remarkably consistent w/r/t instability. The main difference is that each run has slowly increased instability and expanded the good instability northward. I know you aren't accusing me. I was responding to both you and Andy, and some parts of it were directed more towards Andy than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I haven't looked at the current run of the NAM, but a few prior runs did hint at some convective-related stabilization across ctrl TX. I just mentioned it as a reason not to completely discount the HRRR just yet, so no I am not trolling. Was just joking man. But yeah, the new day 1 is intriguing, if earlier convection fails to influence the threat significantly, I could potentially see a mod at some point within the next outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Was just joking man. But yeah, the new day 1 is intriguing, if earlier convection fails to influence the threat significantly, I could potentially see a mod at some point within the next outlooks. Sorry about that then, haha. I agree that if the morning convection ends up not doing much, a MDT ought to be in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I'm not accusing you of trolling. It's just that I looked back through the past 8 runs of the NAM and they have been remarkably consistent w/r/t instability. The main difference is that each run has slowly increased instability and expanded the good instability northward. Got to give the new NAM some credit for being remarkably consistent. Even the EC and other globals trending towards it regarding a much slower ejection of the western wave and a break in the early DMC. This is how any model is supposed to operate...make very slow trends so it is actually usable in an operational environment. I still have hope for the NAM even though it has not been stellar since it first came out a few weeks ago...this is something the previous NAM never would have been capable of--steady and consistent trends/changes without erratic run by run differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I've seen the HRRR nail plenty of setups....but also blow some too. The HRRR is a tough one since it runs hourly. Hard to analyze something that may whiff one hour then nail it the next. That said, the HRRR seems to be more effective where there is clear linear forcing for initiation when significant capping is not a concern. As tornadotony said, it otherwise seems to be overly sensitive to diffuse and/or non-existent forcing mechanisms at times, and this can make it challenging to use operationally. SPC rarely mentions it for this reason I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 FWIW the RGEM lights up the dryline tomorrow afternoon. Sometimes the RGEM can be a bit over-baked, but it seems to be trying to simulate the threat for multiple rounds of supercells initiating along the dryline through the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 A few images off of the 0z NAM 1.3km nested fire wx run... A few rounds of supercell development, before a main squall line/QCLS develops during the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 A few images off of the 0z NAM 1.3km nested fire wx run... Wow, some pretty crazy discrete activity there... You got any images from the RGEM baro? The one here isn't uploading for me, for w/e reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 New Day 1 keeps the same probs, makes the 10% hatched tornado contour a little bigger. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TX. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTHERN AZ WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND HELP TO PRODUCE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS OK IN A REGION OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION. THESE STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TX AND WESTERN OK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500+ J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. MOST MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MAX HEATING PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TX. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. AFTER DARK...A SECOND ROUND OF INTENSE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST TX AND WESTERN OK. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GROW RATHER QUICKLY INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. WHILE THE INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS WITH THESE STORMS THAN EARLIER IN THE DAY...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. ..HART/COHEN.. 11/07/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 A few images off of the 0z NAM 1.3km nested fire wx run... link por favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 The 12Z NAM makes Childress, TX look like the sweet spot around 6 PM this evening. Overall, it's looking like this is going to be a long-duration event with the tornado threat lasting well into the evening. Eventually, a very impressive squall line should fire off the dry line/cold front which will then chase me back home to Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 CAPE nearing 3,000 J/kg around the Vernon, TX area later today at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 12Z NAM simulated sounding for Childress, TX at 6 PM tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 The 12Z NAM makes Childress, TX look like the sweet spot around 6 PM this evening. Agreed. Nice looking DL bulge around that area and its also progging more instability this evening then previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Looking at the 12z suite, I see the RUC and the HRRR not backing surface flow as much as the NAM. I mean it's not a huge difference, due south at the surface versus SSE, but it might be the difference between a couple tornadoes and a mini-outbreak. I'd say that's something to watch later in the day, if the surface winds back as much as we hope they will. Edit: closer to 0z the HRRR finally remedies the situation, although up through at least 22z the winds are still due S until you get north of the axis of instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Also think we get a supercell or two to fire off the Serranias del Burro mtn range west and southwest of Del Rio, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 This is the 12z NAM sounding for Vernon TX valid at 3pm cst this afternoon. Note the Significant Tornado Parameter of 7.7. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 alot of low-mid 60 dew points in southwest/southern OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Clearing taking shape along the Red River Valley. Also dews are 67 at Altus and 68 at Fredrick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Clearing taking shape along the Red River Valley. Also dews are 67 at Altus and 68 at Fredrick... Also 68 at DUC and 65 and LAW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Strong Surface and MU CAPE (both 3000 J/kg) building in on the Texas side of the Red River according to Mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 The Southern end of the Slight Risk needs a bit of clearing, but all in all it does appear an active evening is ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 lots o dots headed toward altus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 44 degress at Arnett and 74 at Altus. some sub severe storms getting going along/north of I-40 on the OK/TX border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 44 degress at Arnett and 74 at Altus. some sub severe storms getting going along/north of I-40 on the OK/TX border. Tops near 45k ft near the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Tops near 45k ft near the border. also getting cells to fire southwest of CDS with the building cu field, few sites gusting to 25kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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