Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 21Z SREF for 6 PM on Monday The tor ingredients has been very consistent with this setup. FWIW, the 0z NAM is mixing out low-level moisture a bit east of the dryline monday afternoon but wow and sfc winds seriously backing by 0z that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I know it is outside the time period, but I would look at the period of November 13th to November 14th for severe weather as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 SWODY2....30% and hatched. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT SUN NOV 06 2011 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ..SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS A FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. WELL TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX DURING THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS NORTH TX INTO CNTRL OK WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE REGION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY NWD ACROSS NW TX INTO WCNTRL OK. FURTHER TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDAY STORMS ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...THE MODELS FORECAST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY REACHING THE 1000 TO 1500 J/K RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS...DISCRETE CELL INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL DEVELOP STORMS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS A SQUALL-LINE WILL DEVELOP IN WRN OK AND NW TX AND MOVE EWD INTO WCNTRL OK AND ACROSS NORTH TX SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WCNTRL OK AND NORTHWEST TX ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AS HIGH AS 50 KT COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS STORM MODE. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENT WITH A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURED MCS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE FROM NORTHWEST SWD INTO WCNTRL TX WHERE MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL THREAT FROM FAR SW OK SWD TO AROUND SAN ANGELO WITH SEVERAL TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WHERE A HATCHED AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL HAS BEEN ADDED. A STRONG TORNADO ALSO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST FURTHER NORTH INTO CNTRL OK...THE MORE PREDOMINANT THREAT COULD BECOME WIND DAMAGE AS A SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD INTO ECNTRL OK AND ACROSS NORTH TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 DFW a bit East of the hatched area... Well, more than a 'bit' East... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Perhaps a moderate risk could be upcoming? Although it is Broyles, so perhaps take that with a grain of salt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 Dewpoints are recovering quite nicely this morning. My Davis Vantage Vue mounted on my chase vehicle outside is showing a dewpoint of 57 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 The 03Z SREF has ramped up the probs at 0Z and we now have a small area of 40% outlined on the significant tornado ingredients algorithm on the red river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Whoa pretty large 30 area...welcome back to standard time everyone Impressive environment with very strongly backed surface winds, 50-60 kts of 0-6 km shear, 150-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) and 1500-2000+ J/kg CAPE at 00z in that general area being forecast by the 06z NAM. Pretty damn robust STP in the area as per the 06z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 New NAM gives a vibe of a fairly small area that might actually see significant severe storms. CDS-SPS axis, extending into maybe adjacent Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 New Day 2, 30%/hatched area expanded a bit towards FWD. 40 STI areas also appear to have expanded at 21z and 00z as per the most recent runs of the SREF: DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2011 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WITH THE POLAR JET/SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING/DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CA COAST...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EAST/EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS IT TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT WHILE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF A SHARPENING WEST TX DRYLINE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY /AND INTO TUESDAY/ ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX... GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS DESCRIBED...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING/INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME...AND THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF HAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO OK MONDAY MORNING. WITH TIME...GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A CONTINUALLY MOISTENING/DIURNALLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/PERIPHERAL DRYLINE ACROSS NORTHWEST/PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK. HERE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/PERHAPS MIDDLE 60S F WILL BE PREVALENT BENEATH AN EASTWARD-ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE MODE ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN...A MIXED MODE SEEMS PROBABLE WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST/PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHWEST OK...ASIDE FROM A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR LINEAR/SQUALL LINE-TYPE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND WEST/NORTH TX...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. OVERALL...ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES...INCLUDING RISKS FOR A STRONG TORNADO GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY LARGE/ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS THAT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ..GUYER.. 11/06/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Just SW of Altus on Monday evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Jeez at that surface backing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 chasing in nov must suck with early sunset.. not to mention fall svr seems to crap on itself more often than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Jeez at that surface backing... A shade farther South closer to the surface boundary would seem the place to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 chasing in nov must suck with early sunset.. not to mention fall svr seems to crap on itself more often than not This is in good chaser territory, which helps make up for it, unlike many Fall svr events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 "good chase country". too many chasers down in that area but it being november it shouldnt be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 "good chase country". too many chasers down in that area but it being november it shouldnt be that bad. Actually, I expect a ton of chasers to be out. It sounds like folks are flying down from your area. When you get a good setup in November in good terrain, everyone and their donkey chases it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 SREF popping a 50% 12z/18z NAM forecast soundings for CDS-FDR-F05 looking increasingly ominous, with better thermodynamic profiles than previous runs (SBCAPE ~2500 J/kg, LI -6) and large looping hodographs by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 SREF popping a 50% 12z/18z NAM forecast soundings for CDS-FDR-F05 looking increasingly ominous, with better thermodynamic profiles than previous runs (SBCAPE ~2500 J/kg, LI -6) and large looping hodographs by 00z. This is definitely shaping up as the most significant threat Texas/Oklahoma have seen in the fall/winter months since back on February 10, 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Actually, I expect a ton of chasers to be out. It sounds like folks are flying down from your area. When you get a good setup in November in good terrain, everyone and their donkey chases it. Not to mention that this could be one of the last threats of the season in prime chase country...yeah...I would expect a lot of chasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 This is definitely shaping up as the most significant threat Texas/Oklahoma have seen in the fall/winter months since back on February 10, 2009. I'll post a more detailed analysis later, but the way I see it, it's probably the biggest threat the area from SPS up to Childress has seen in probably many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 This event appears poised to buck November climatology. Here are a couple maps showing the probability of a tornado day in November within 25 miles of a point. Note that the first map covers a much shorter time scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 My thoughts on tomorrow's severe weather event across Texas. This was written so the general public could understand it and it's pretty much just a overview of what everyone here already knows. Still, if you're interested, you can read it at http://texasstormchasers.com/2011/11/05/severe-weather-expected-on-monday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 I'll post a more detailed analysis later, but the way I see it, it's probably the biggest threat the area from SPS up to Childress has seen in probably many years. I agree, I don't remember chasing a tornadic supercell out towards Wichita Falls and I've been chasing since 2008. Tomorrow could be a doozy and I'm looking forward to it. I'll be out chasing along with half the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 It is funny because what partially makes this event unique is the very fact it is November...you never see such a deep wave with respectable cross barrier terrain flow forcing compensating upslope flow combined with a fall like wave off the EC contributing to those impressive trajectories in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 SREF popping a 50% 12z/18z NAM forecast soundings for CDS-FDR-F05 looking increasingly ominous, with better thermodynamic profiles than previous runs (SBCAPE ~2500 J/kg, LI -6) and large looping hodographs by 00z. Holy moly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I'll post a more detailed analysis later, but the way I see it, it's probably the biggest threat the area from SPS up to Childress has seen in probably many years. Agreed, and that's not necessarily saying a whole lot: 2001-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Holy moly... I echo that exact comment there Andy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Agreed, and that's not necessarily saying a whole lot: 2001-2010 Yeah, I wasn't really trying to make that profound of a statement, although I think there is a shot at something substantial happening tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I agree, I don't remember chasing a tornadic supercell out towards Wichita Falls and I've been chasing since 2008. Tomorrow could be a doozy and I'm looking forward to it. I'll be out chasing along with half the state. the only good supercell I've seen that was really close to produce was down around FDR on 4/26/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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