Analog years with snow in October in NYC

[ArtRosen]

I've noticed a great deal of posts predicting that if we get snow in October, we'll get lots of snow later in the year as well. So, is October a canary in the coal mine?

Let's look at the years we've had snow in October in NYC.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

There have been 17 years with snow in October.

1876-77 1925-26 1926-27 1928-29 1929-30 1934-35 1936-37 1937-38 1940-41 1944-45 1960-61 1962-63 1965-66 1972-73 1979-80 2000-01 2002-03

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Out of those years, only 1962 has been a La Nina year during October.

Additionally, only 1960 and 2000 were neutral negative during October.

Additionally, out of these years, only 3 years have had 40 or more inches of snow:

1876-77 1960-61 2002-03

Out of those years, none of those years had had a La Nina preceeding October or following October that same year.

Only 2000 had a decent hurricane season. 14 named storms plus 1 sub-trop (http://skeetobiteweather.com/history.asp). Additionally, only the year 2000 was a La Nina year before October.

So, if we look at the year 2000, it wasn't such a bad year. We had 35 inches of snow.

10 out of 17 winters had less than 30 inches of snow.

1926-27 1928-29 1929-30 1936-37 1937-38 1944-45 1962-63 1965-66 1972-73 1979-80

1962 had a La Nina form in ASO and 1980 was neutral negative (barely).

1962 received 16.3 inches of snow that winter and 1980 received 12.8.

1962 had 5 named storms and 1980 had 11 named storms. Certainly nothing like what we've received this year.

But it has never snowed in October in a year that follows two years where we've had 40+ inches of snow.

Statistically speaking, there was a very, very, very low chance that we would've received snow this October. It wasn't an El Nino nor was it a quiet hurricane season nor did the last year or year before receive less than 40 inches of snow.

Finally, 1928 was the last time we were close to the amount of snow that fell today. That winter had 32.4 inches. I have no idea what the hurricane season was like or what the ENSO was like at that time.

But if we were going to use analogs, I would go with 1928, 1960, 1962 and 2000. And there is such a vast difference between all 4 years, I really don't think that snow in October really means anything more than, well, it snowed in October. I would not use October snow as a canary in the coal mine or a basis upon how the rest of the season is going to do with all of the other factors in place.

[Ericjcrash]

It does NOT matter Its october. Its a freak event, whatever happens in DJF is yet to be seen.