snywx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This was never really suppose to be a major snow event for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It seems like Upton went too high with totals for the city and LI. That being said, I think they were right to have raised totals for the suburbs nearing 8" here and coming down nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The rain over Long Island currently is testament that the sun angle had nothing to do with the p-type today. Again...the two most important fators...which, if in place, can bring heavy snow to the coast...storm track and having a cold anticyclone in place. We had the storm track...and the air mass was reasonably cool by October standards....but generally, for snow at the coast, there must be either an arctic or reasonably cold polar air mass in place. Everything else can be a problem...time of year, sun angle water temps, ground temp, etc....but if those two things are met...it will snow at the coast. Those 2 factors are as necessary on October 29th as on January 29th.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just about 10" now and snowing heavily.. This deform band is producing some serious parachutes right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This was never really suppose to be a major snow event for the coast. Yes but the models had a bunch of the snow occurring this evening, not this morning. Theoretically, with the snow we has this morning, this CCB was modeled to produce 2-5 more inches of snow. That's what the discussion is about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yes but the models had a bunch of the snow occurring this evening, not this morning. Theoretically, with the snow we has this morning, this CCB was modeled to produce 2-5 more inches of snow. That's what the discussion is about. NYC metro will still see 2-4" more as the band over Middletown collapses SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah it's likely a combination of poor snow growth, maybe a bit of saturation problems...and some melting. The CCB itself formed well and looks good. But the precip rates are struggling and as mentioned the snow growth & snow quality is poor. Can't complain too much about poor snow growth in October; any snow accumulation is a remarkable event. Definitely agree the banding has fallen apart over here in SE PA. Generally lt-mod snow for the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This morning really confused the heck out of everyone... The fact that i changed to snow at 11am in western suffolk county and heard about these crazy events going on to my west - it appeared that today was just going to come together and provide an amazing event and I think upton got caught up in all that.. Hey- maybe we are jumping to conclusions... But it's almost 8pm - and well these bad reports fro NJ and being that the temps aren't falling yet here on LI - I'm not sure what to think.. It's what 01z right now? when was it "suppose" to change over in the nyc area? when was the precip suppose to cut off? 06z? Another unbelievable thing : You guys are on the cold side of the storm now with a north wind , yet Newark airport just bounced up to 36. go figure.. If it makes ya guys feel any better.. this is what it looks like here right now . ( just hit a foot..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NYC metro will still see 2-4" more as the band over Middletown collapses SE. everyone is panicking a little bit...temps are falling again on the island...it will snow, relax. its been sleeting here all day, im sure that will move out to suffolk...1 inch of slush! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Another unbelievable thing : You guys are on the cold side of the storm now with a north wind , yet Newark airport just bounced up to 36. go figure.. If it makes ya guys feel any better.. this is what it looks like here right now . ( just hit a foot..) incredible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Probably a foot right now, power flickering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319932371[/url]' post='1081860']everyone is panicking a little bit...temps are falling again on the island...it will snow, relax. its been sleeting here all day, im sure that will move out to suffolk...1 inch of slush! It's been snowing moderately for the past hour here with zero accumulations. Poor snow growth and 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Some of y'all panic way too much. It is OCTOBER. Just having snow period makes this awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yes but the models had a bunch of the snow occurring this evening, not this morning. Theoretically, with the snow we has this morning, this CCB was modeled to produce 2-5 more inches of snow. That's what the discussion is about. The EC clown maps on Wunderground actually got the trend right here. They were overdone, as you would think, (though maybe not further north where it was colder), but they seemed to nail that the highest accumulation rates would actually occur from 15z-18z with a gradual lowering after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Again...the two most important fators...which, if in place, can bring heavy snow to the coast...storm track and having a cold anticyclone in place. We had the storm track...and the air mass was reasonably cool by October standards....but generally, for snow at the coast, there must be either an arctic or reasonably cold polar air mass in place. Everything else can be a problem...time of year, sun angle water temps, ground temp, etc....but if those two things are met...it will snow at the coast. Those 2 factors are as necessary on October 29th as on January 29th.... Quite frankly sun angle rarely plays a role in determining p-type. I guess the only exception would be a light snowfall in early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 moderate snow on the UWS, finally back in decent snow for a while... I think we will still pick up a few inches as it winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 islip airport not reporting any rain, a sleet snow mix now. We are starting to cool. Im thinking we may see a bit better snow growth out here being closer to the cyclone and vertical motion as the deformation band moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 everyone is panicking a little bit...temps are falling again on the island...it will snow, relax. its been sleeting here all day, im sure that will move out to suffolk...1 inch of slush! Everyone will do better as the deformation band slides SE during the evening hours. Yonkers over to Bronxville is getting destroyed right now with 30dbz banding, looks to be right along the Westchester/Bronx border. I think my house at 350' in Dobbs Ferry is going to receive close to a foot of snow; they already had 6-7" according to my parents at 5pm, and areas north of the City have largely avoided the dryslot, so they are probably racking it up. Scarsdale reporting moderate snow at 32.5F.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Getting hit hard here right now. Although I will say the snow growth must be poor---it's not snowing as hard as it could be given the radar reflectivities. This has been going on all night with this back edge...its looked a lot worse on radar but has mainly been light-moderate ...1/2 - 2 mile visibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe1946 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NJ Gov Chris Christie on WABC TV just said NJ has 600,000 without power including his house in Morris County. BTW they just showed West Milford with 15.5" of snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Another unbelievable thing : You guys are on the cold side of the storm now with a north wind , yet Newark airport just bounced up to 36. go figure.. If it makes ya guys feel any better.. this is what it looks like here right now . ( just hit a foot..) that just may be your biggest storm of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Quite frankly sun angle rarely plays a role in determining p-type. I guess the only exception would be a light snowfall in early April. It sometimes determines if it will stick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 State of emergency town of yorktown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It sometimes determines if it will stick... True, but that is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Radar looks like its going to explode over much of western and central ct any moment you can see some bright banding showing up just west of hartford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Massive tree just fell across my street. Somehow I still have power. Moderate snow continues and trees continue to sag under the weight of 8" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 12z NAM Raleigh snow map. Can't get more accurate then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The EC clown maps on Wunderground actually got the trend right here. They were overdone, as you would think, (though maybe not further north where it was colder), but they seemed to nail that the highest accumulation rates would actually occur from 15z-18z with a gradual lowering after that. The WRF was hitting the same exact thing...3hr precip totals were off the chart around 18z, but gradually backed off towards 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 This storm reminds me a lot of Dec. 11-12 '92 in MA, where it kept oscillating between heavy snow and lt/mod rain... meanwhile about 10 miles west, they got 8-10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The most I can see for western Long Island is two inches, and I think even that is pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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