baroclinic_instability Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Eh scratch that, the moisture return is still poor. It may be a tick stronger mainly owing to its farther S latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Euro is going to be leading the way again this winter eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Euro is going to be leading the way again this winter eh? Actually the GFS kicked arse last winter after its upgrade. However, this spring/summer it really suffered likely owing to changes to its convective scheme. It is still catching up it seems, and it definitely is not close to as stellar as it was last winter regarding synoptics. It was darn near close to the ECMWF last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 This storm still has potential to be a nice early season system, but not going to lie, it had major potential. The day 3 wave is really killing the potential of this system. This event really shows why the GOM is such a major player in the extremity of US weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Wish that day 3 wave would just die lol... Mainly cause I am not the most interested in snow and whatnot (unless it's something crazy like the GHD blizzard), I don't know it just doesn't interest me as much as the rest of you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Wish that day 3 wave would just die lol... Mainly cause I am not the most interested in snow and whatnot (unless it's something crazy like the GHD blizzard), I don't know it just doesn't interest me as much as the rest of you guys. You're the opposite of me. I could care less about severe weather but I love snow. I guess it's because severe weather is fairly common here and pretty destructive in general. Even before the tornado I wasn't that into severe weather. I've just always liked snowstorms. Something about how clean it makes everything look and how quiet and beautiful it is outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 If I had multiple violent tornadoes either go through or near the city i live in, I'd probably have a different opinion as well, it's probably just my ignorance on that front that is causing me to get agitated with these uncertain, "all or nothing" setups. (Of course, being in the C/W/GL/OV forums, you're bound to get sucked into the severe weather discussion no matter what) Tbh, the significant snow potential is kind of going down the drain on the models as well (at least in the Northern Plains), to add insult to injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Interesting comparison from Roth at the HPC to last late October: THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES THE IDEA OF A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WARM SECTOR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. STILL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER/LESS WINDY THAN THE HISTORIC STORM WHICH IMPACTED THE REGION FROM OCTOBER 26-27 LAST YEAR. FOR AN REVIEW OF THAT STORM...ITS REPORT IS ON OUR WEBSITE AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews. shtml AND CLICK ON OCTOBER 26-27, 2010 MIDWEST HIGH WIND EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Still looks good for some snow here but its hard to say a lot more than that yet. Seems to be more of a tendency to become N-S oriented as it moves through here which I am sure results in changes when it reaches you guys in the plains. All models are on board though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 I've been eagerly awaiting my first snowfall since moving out here and since I'll be out of town this weekend you can take it to the bank. In all seriousness though the model agreement for this far out is impressive, I don't think it's a question of will there be a storm as much as how strong it may be and where the best action will occur. GGEM & GFS say "you & cmichweather" won't have to wait much longer. 12z hr 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Still a good storm threat for ND into MN...UKMET still holds out hope for a deeper trough and a stronger ejecting wave with a more favorable GOM moisture return. I am not holding my breeath, but there is still plenty of variability here...and it really hinges quite a bit on how this wave developing across the intermountain W develops...and how deep the longwave digs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 Still a good storm threat for ND into MN...UKMET still holds out hope for a deeper trough and a stronger ejecting wave with a more favorable GOM moisture return. I am not holding my breeath, but there is still plenty of variability here...and it really hinges quite a bit on how this wave developing across the intermountain W develops...and how deep the longwave digs. The GAPS is like the UKIE so not good when it's those two models holding onto the bigger threat compared to the others..lol. I want snow like most everyone else but i'd be happy just to get some rain as it's been so dry here for the last 2 months. Hoping to a flip back to a bigger storm in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I'm really thinking that based on the strength of the trough that the strong solutions will be right, my only worry for my location is a track west of the city but this should be a fairly potent system and i'm thinking low 980's or so as of right now.... yes i'm throwing the euro out right now. This is gonna be a big storm I don't buy the stronger lead wave solution as of right now based on sat. and current analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I'm really thinking that based on the strength of the trough that the strong solutions will be right, my only worry for my location is a track west of the city but this should be a fairly potent system and i'm thinking low 980's or so as of right now.... yes i'm throwing the euro out right now. This is gonna be a big storm I don't buy the stronger lead wave solution as of right now based on sat. and current analysis. We shall see. The GOM is not in play based on current projections, but I see your point regarding the fast solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Nice write up this morning from the HPC. The slower Euro solution even brings snow into Oklahoma. We will see... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 402 AM EDT WED NOV 02 2011 VALID 12Z SUN NOV 06 2011 - 12Z WED NOV 09 2011 ...WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND... ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON MAINTAINING A PROGRESSIVE BUT AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PAIR OF DETAIL ISSUES ARE NOTED THIS PERIOD. EARLY ON...BOTH THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SHIFTING THE CYCLONE BACK TO WHERE IT WAS PROGGED FOUR DAYS AGO. USED A 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR THIS FEATURE PER THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION /PMDHMD/. THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEEDINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION/DEPTH OF A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST HERE. THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE TRACK TO THE LEFT...WHICH IT HAS DONE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. USED A 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD COMMA HEAD SNOWS FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN ITS WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY. A GREATER INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SNOWS TO THE TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE FROM THE US/MEXICAN BORDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WETTER WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS TO ITS NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...EASING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE AN OUTBREAK OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Gorgeous mountain wave activity ahead of the beastly trough with signficant lee cirrus. What a waste though, with moisture from the GOM this would have been an epic beast storm likely deep into the 970s. We can thank the current migratory PV anomaly currently showing that front through the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'm becoming more and more interested in the second shortwave that comes through the 7th-9th. GOM would be open for business if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'm becoming more and more interested in the second shortwave that comes through the 7th-9th. GOM would be open for business if that happens. Yes, I noticed that too. EC would be an impressive snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Looking at the bufkit, 12z GFS had a nice little burst of snow for my area as well. Just going to depend on the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Still looking at some snow tomorrow night. I think 1-3 inches is my current feelings. Maybe the 00z models will offer more hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I have a WWA now, here is part of it * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ON THE VALLEY FLOORS WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES ON THE BENCHES. LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE. * TIMING: RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN TAPER OFF AROUND DAYBREAK. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. Models have come in a little stronger the last few runs developing a low pressure to my south and moving it of the NE allowing for strong wraparound and what looks to be something of a deformation band. At any rate I think 2-5 inches is a realistic forecast for my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I have a WWA now, here is part of it * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ON THE VALLEY FLOORS WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES ON THE BENCHES. LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE. * TIMING: RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN TAPER OFF AROUND DAYBREAK. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. Models have come in a little stronger the last few runs developing a low pressure to my south and moving it of the NE allowing for strong wraparound and what looks to be something of a deformation band. At any rate I think 2-5 inches is a realistic forecast for my place. I never underestimate that area from SLC through UT Valley in NW flow behind a cold front as it begins to stagnate and the Froude NUmber decreases with the Wasatch Front effectively blocking the flow. U WRF supports 3-4 for UT Valley, and I agree with that just giving it a brief look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 I never underestimate that area from SLC through UT Valley in NW flow behind a cold front as it begins to stagnate and the Froude NUmber decreases with the Wasatch Front effectively blocking the flow. U WRF supports 3-4 for UT Valley, and I agree with that just giving it a brief look. Down to 37 now with rain, snow shouldn't be far. Still have a few hours of the frontal moisture to work with. The low pressure is forming to the SE as well. Latest models keep the real heavy stuff over the mountains but we will see. Should still see something noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Down to 37 now with rain, snow shouldn't be far. Still have a few hours of the frontal moisture to work with. The low pressure is forming to the SE as well. Latest models keep the real heavy stuff over the mountains but we will see. Should still see something noteworthy. Turned over at Ogden and SLC. Front just made it to UT Valley, but the moisture and cold air advection is still well behind. I would think turnover will be in the next 1-2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Turned over at Ogden and SLC. Front just made it to UT Valley, but the moisture and cold air advection is still well behind. I would think turnover will be in the next 1-2 hours. Its 36F now with a solid rain/snow mix. SLC is 33 with snow and Ogden 32. At least the moisture band appears to be intensifying. Probably due to uplift and possibly because of the interaction with that low forming to my SE. Models have shown that occuring anyway but mostly over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Its 36F now with a solid rain/snow mix. SLC is 33 with snow and Ogden 32. At least the moisture band appears to be intensifying. Probably due to uplift and possibly because of the interaction with that low forming to my SE. Models have shown that occuring anyway but mostly over the mountains. Yeah that is part of it, but the real reason for the intensification of the precip band along the front is air "bunching up" along the Wasatch Front as strong cold air advection stabilizes the air mass and effectively "blocks" the flow. Pretty classic Wasatch Front weather with this front...really the reason why some of the higher elevations see 600-700 " annually...well that and the Salt Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Yeah that is part of it, but the real reason for the intensification of the precip band along the front is air "bunching up" along the Wasatch Front as strong cold air advection stabilizes the air mass and effectively "blocks" the flow. Pretty classic Wasatch Front weather with this front...really the reason why some of the higher elevations see 600-700 " annually...well that and the Salt Lake. Yeah that makes sense, it is a pretty regular occurance with storm systems around here. Unfortunately I rarely cash in on lake effect here but salt lake city is amazing during the lake effect storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 It was 33 and snowing when I went to bed but woke up to bare ground! Lame. SLC got 3.2 inches so far and its still snowing. I have noticed that nw flow sometimes dry slots me but other times it doesn't have an effect. Now if I could predict why that happens sometimes and not other times I would be a much better forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 It was 33 and snowing when I went to bed but woke up to bare ground! Lame. SLC got 3.2 inches so far and its still snowing. I have noticed that nw flow sometimes dry slots me but other times it doesn't have an effect. Now if I could predict why that happens sometimes and not other times I would be a much better forecaster. I will admit I am surprised you got nothing. That area is a major challenge to forecast for, and that is just the nature of the game. The Traverse Range that splits UT/SLC Valley can have major downslope effects depending on the flow direction and the strength of the Salt Lake enhancement. If the flow is strong enough lake bands will push into UT Valley...that is the thing to look for. NE UT Valley typically does much better than Provo. Provo is a bit of a weather hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 I will admit I am surprised you got nothing. That area is a major challenge to forecast for, and that is just the nature of the game. The Traverse Range that splits UT/SLC Valley can have major downslope effects depending on the flow direction and the strength of the Salt Lake enhancement. If the flow is strong enough lake bands will push into UT Valley...that is the thing to look for. NE UT Valley typically does much better than Provo. Provo is a bit of a weather hole. I am too. I really want to try and focus on this so I can get better at forecasting its effects on the weather here. The local mets or NWS never see it and so they plow ahead with similar totals to everywhere else in the valley but quite often this happens. With WSW flow we are the winners here most of the time. At any rate, thanks for the advice and watching the storm with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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