Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Link to your blog? Its in my signature lol It wasn't much just a quick paragraph and then some images from the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The GFS keeps teasing me with these bomb runs. Being the first major storm threat I am definitely being more weather weeni-like than I should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The EC/GFS continue to suggest a rather unusual Colorado Low track, but I would take it in a heart beat. Most track much farther SE more along the MN/IA border, but the orientation of the baroclinic zone and the relative extremity of the amplitude of the long wave result in a rapid intensification a bit farther W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 The EC/GFS continue to suggest a rather unusual Colorado Low track, but I would take it in a heart beat. Most track much farther SE more along the MN/IA border, but the orientation of the baroclinic zone and the relative extremity of the amplitude of the long wave result in a rapid intensification a bit farther W. The GFS is rain for me then i get dry slotted followed by a brief period of backend snow...6 days out so it could track a bit further SE. Fun model watching the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The GFS is rain for me then i get dry slotted followed by a brief period of backend snow...6 days out so it could track a bit further SE. Fun model watching the next few days. I will take any storm. Currently I am not hoping for any snow, just a storm. Given the setup I doubt snow would make it to the cities. Weather pron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The EC/GFS continue to suggest a rather unusual Colorado Low track, but I would take it in a heart beat. Most track much farther SE more along the MN/IA border, but the orientation of the baroclinic zone and the relative extremity of the amplitude of the long wave result in a rapid intensification a bit farther W. 979mb into southern MN, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 979mb into southern MN, wow. A Colorado to Minnisota. I know these are the type of systems that sometimes bring tornado outbreaks. Does this one have any potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 GFS takes the L right over my backyard. I agree with baro, take any storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 A Colorado to Minnisota. I know these are the type of systems that sometimes bring tornado outbreaks. Does this one have any potential? SHEAR PROFILES AS WELL AS FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING N TX...OK...KS...AR...MO. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH SUCH STRONG WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS EVENT IS 7 DAYS OUT...AFOREMENTIONED PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WITH TROUGH TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL FORESTALL ANY SEVERE AREAS UNTIL LATER OUTLOOKS. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/28678-severe-weather-thread-november-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 979mb into southern MN, wow. 972mb just north of LS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 972mb just north of LS. Even stronger than the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 The EC/GFS continue to suggest a rather unusual Colorado Low track, but I would take it in a heart beat. Most track much farther SE more along the MN/IA border, but the orientation of the baroclinic zone and the relative extremity of the amplitude of the long wave result in a rapid intensification a bit farther W. 12z CMC a bit further SE this run...L from nw IA to n WI at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Right now I am not convinced in the GFS solution...it is still the slowest and weakest with the ejecting day 3-4 cutoff low out of the intermountain W, and that results in by far the moist ambitious GOM return moisture flow for the day6+ storm into the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 12z Euro is further west at 144 hrs than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 12z Euro is further west at 144 hrs than the GFS. 12z euro says, congrats BIS for a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Looks like I will get hit by this thing before it heads out to produce severe wx for you guys. I should get 2-4 inches of snow and then temps fall below freezing for a couple days. Consider it a gift from me to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Interesting to read that FGF puts more weight on the dgex/fim models over the ecmwf...not often that you read about those 2 models in a AFD. ABR just to their south has totally the opposite...gotta love it. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 30 2011 .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBLE LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING SEA THAT IS APPROACHING THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS LOW WILL BECOME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LOWER 48 LATER THIS WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN FORMING IN THE COLORADO AREA AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TO TAKE THIS STRONG LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS...OR JUST SOME RAIN AND WIND. THERE HAS BEEN SOME GREATER CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS/DGEX/FIM MODEL RUNS RATHER THAN THE ECMWF...SO LEANED ON THE FORMER FOR THIS FORECAST. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 30 2011 THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS IN FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROF INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK TIMING AND EXACT POSITION OF THE STACKED LOW REMAIN IN QUESTION. THESE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...EC FARTHER WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER AND MOVES THE LOW OVER MN...WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE EC SOLUTION LENDS ITSELF TO A DRY SLOT AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS...POSSIBLY KEEPING THE PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THE GFS SOLUTION ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS DOWN ENOUGH COLD AIR TO PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND GUSTIER WINDS. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST TODAY LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF POSITION WITH THE GFS TIMING...SO QUICKER BUT WARMER. WILL NEED TO WATCH AND WAIT TO SEE HOW CONSISTENT THIS SOLUTION REMAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Awaiting the 18z GFS rather eagerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Awaiting the 18z GFS rather eagerly. My gut says it will be weaker and closer to the ECMWF...the day 3-4 wave is coming out of the Rockies much stronger...with a stronger cold front pushing into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Although it is digging a lot farther S this run too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Ridge appears less amplified in between the two systems at 102 hrs, idk I could be seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 My gut says it will be weaker and closer to the ECMWF...the day 3-4 wave is coming out of the Rockies much stronger...with a stronger cold front pushing into the GOM. alittle slower and a bit weaker through 144hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Very little moisture advection on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Awaiting the 18z GFS rather eagerly. When something seems to good to be true... it probably is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Although, to be fair, the 12z and 00z GFS runs seem to have trended on the strong side as opposed to the 06z and 18z runs for this system (or at least I've noticed that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I've been eagerly awaiting my first snowfall since moving out here and since I'll be out of town this weekend you can take it to the bank. In all seriousness though the model agreement for this far out is impressive, I don't think it's a question of will there be a storm as much as how strong it may be and where the best action will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Want to see why there is such a difference between the 18Z and 12Z GFS? Moisture return and the process of rapid cyclogenesis through moist latent heat release. ECMWF has always been weaker since it had a much stronger day 3+ intermountain W wave and associated cold front. The return flow low level trajectories off the GOM were much less robust than the strong GFS runs. 18Z GFS finally caught a clue of reality with the day 3+ wave, and here are the results. 12Z GFS 925 theta-e: 18Z GFS 925 theta-e: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Moist latent heat release is important, and an "open" GOM is very important on rapid intensification. While I was "hoping" for a GFS bomb run, a more realistic scenario was more ECMWF like since it was advertising a much beefier ejecting cutoff low out of the intermountain W (as was the NAM/CMC). Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 GFS is much slower and digging the longwave much farther S. We may see a bit more return flow moisture this run...it will really be the only saving grace for a stronger solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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