prinsburg_wx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Might be a little early to start a thread on a possible storm threat being a week out but the models have been consistent the last few days of showing a trough in the west & more storm development...The 12z 20111029 models are progging a big storm around the nov 5/6 time frame followed by more cold. Would like to hear what METS & others think on the possible pattern change and storm threat. GFS, ECMWF & CMC all have a storm late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Snow and severe weather threat would both be possible with this verbatim. Really liking the consistency I'm seeing with the models this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It has my attention. In fact I will be visiting in MN right during this time. That said, while the consistency is good regarding a significant trough and dump of arctic air, any storm threats are still a bit out to get too excited. That said, it has my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 It has my attention. In fact I will be visiting in MN right during this time. That said, while the consistency is good regarding a significant trough and dump of arctic air, any storm threats are still a bit out to get too excited. That said, it has my attention I should have waited a few more runs before starting the thread but i was excited when i seen that thing on most of the 12z models today...lol, oh well. Most of MN had alot of snow before you moved to NE last winter so hope you can bring it back when you visit next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I should have waited a few more runs before starting the thread but i was excited when i seen that thing on most of the 12z models today...lol, oh well. Most of MN had alot of snow before you moved to NE last winter so hope you can bring it back when you visit next week. My gosh, 0Z GFS just had a dream run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 That's intense on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Good lord, insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 That's intense on the 00z GFS. Good lord, insane. It was gorgeous. A classic Colorado Low/Panhandle Hooker. I am pretty pumped since I will be in MN at this time. I will take any storm, something like that would be a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Just a full blown blizzard on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Me likes what me sees, to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Me likes what me sees, to say the least... I hope you don't sees severe weather Twisterdata GFS maps are down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 My gosh, 0Z GFS just had a dream run. No doubt. Blizzard, severe wx and a high wind event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 fwiw...0z ggem has 990 L in central MN at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I hope you don't sees severe weather Twisterdata GFS maps are down I hate to say it, but with that kind of trough, svr wx would be likely. Yeah, they have been down since the 174 hr run of the 12z GFS this morning. I'd like to see what some of the hodos look like off this thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 No doubt. Blizzard, severe wx and a high wind event... Weather pron. I may have to go to COD for now since twisterdata took a dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Imagine what the NAM is gonna show later in the week if the GFS runs maintain anywhere near this intensity.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 fwiw...0z ggem has 990 L in central MN at 168 Can you be generous and post some of your maps? Also please tell me you have your website up and running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Can you be generous and post some of your maps? Also please tell me you have your website up and running My ggem maps updating now so will post when complete...i'll have my site up on monday for sure...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I hate to say it, but with that kind of trough, svr wx would be likely. Yeah, they have been down since the 174 hr run of the 12z GFS this morning. I'd like to see what some of the hodos look like off this thing... yeah that looks... not good. Hopefully it will be linearly forced if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 yeah that looks... not good. Hopefully it will be linearly forced if anything. One thing that could limit tornado output is the closed low at H5 being rather close in proximity to the warm sector, which could create shear profiles unfavorable for sustained discrete supercellular convection. We saw something similar to this on April 14th of this year (although that still was a significant outbreak) and, to a lesser extent, May 24th (particularly in Kansas). But that's not to discount these parameters that the models are showing, because that would truly be a very likely severe weather threat with all facets possible if something close to these verbatims came into fruition (We've seen it several times this year what can happen with mid level jets of this intensity punching into an even modestly buoyant warm sector). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 The 0z ggem developes it a little later than the gfs but it's alot better than the 12z run. hrs 156 - 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The 0z ggem developes it a little later than the gfs but it's alot better than the 12z run. hrs 156 - 180 Thanks for posting. Now onto the ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Excellent agreement with the GFS from the 0z Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Thanks for posting. Now onto the ECM. The 0z ECM still a strong system & western dakotas snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Excellent agreement with the GFS from the 0z Euro... The 0z ECM still a strong system & western dakotas snowstorm. Hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Yeah, just nasty stuff all around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 My gosh, 0Z GFS just had a dream run. haha i did a quick blog post on the GFS run earlier before seeing this...called it a run for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Hello. pretty close, with the Euro having it alittle further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Just to put in perspective how insane the temp gradient/low-level baroclinic zone is this run...over a 50 degree gradient from southeast NE to western NE as the sfc low is bombing out on the KS/NE border moving northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 haha i did a quick blog post on the GFS run earlier before seeing this...called it a run for the ages. Link to your blog? The cold plunge is impressive, but we will have to wait and see what kind of shape the ejecting wave is in. That day 3-4 cutoff low heading towards the EC will also have an influence on the low level moisture transport from the GOM...which will significantly influence the moist latent heat release potential/intensification. I think most of the differences between the EC/GFS intensification differences revolve around the drier low levels in the EC (resulting from the poorer moisture advection in the ECM). Still a long ways out, but the teleconnection patterns are pretty conducive to a potential significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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