Potential winter threats

[tombo82685]

i know its hr 384, and will likely be gone, but has anyone ever seen sub -40 850s?

[Alpha5]

i know its hr 384, and will likely be gone, but has anyone ever seen sub -40 850s?

Not over us

[Kaner587]

looks like european and north american patterns switch...that would be epic if it occurred

[tombo82685]

looks like european and north american patterns switch...that would be epic if it occurred

big thing you notice on this, look over alaska, the trof has been replaced with a ridge.

[Alpha5]

if you take the ukmet and go out 24 hours, you might see something like this. The CMC has been hinting at coastal redevelopment as well

[Kaner587]

big thing you notice on this, look over alaska, the trof has been replaced with a ridge.

-EPO ftw. -EPO plus -NAO plus -AO=its gonna be cold

[Kaner587]

I can also see why a -epo and a -nao are very good together...they basically force the cold air south and dont allow it to leave with the blocking from the east on one side (-nao) and the west on the otherside (-epo ridge) locking in the arctic air for what it looks like 90%+ of the CONUS

[SnoSki14]

Well we all know how amazingly accurate those 384 hour gfs forecasts are. .

The gfs doesn't really have anything for us at all, except some rather consistent below average temperatures although they would eventually translate into more seasonal temps/slightly below normal temps as our daily averages continue to decline.

Pretty mundane week coming up with a possible Day 5 threat, but the 50/50 low looks a bit too strong and too far south for us. Great for parts of Virginia and N.C. It's going to be just an awful day tomorrow with the rain and wind and it's going to feel like spring once more with temps in the mid to upper 50s. No flash freezes either, the cold looks to kind of slosh in rather than rush in. The cold push for December 1 will probably be more significant than the one we'll see for Sunday night into Monday.

[Kaner587]

Well we all know how amazingly accurate those 384 hour gfs forecasts are. .

The gfs doesn't really have anything for us at all, except some rather consistent below average temperatures although they would eventually translate into more seasonal temps/slightly below normal temps as our daily averages continue to decline.

Pretty mundane week coming up with a possible Day 5 threat, but the 50/50 low looks a bit too strong and too far south for us. Great for parts of Virginia and N.C. It's going to be just an awful day tomorrow with the rain and wind and it's going to feel like spring once more with temps in the mid to upper 50s. No flash freezes either, the cold looks to kind of slosh in rather than rush in. The cold push for December 1 will probably be more significant than the one we'll see for Sunday night into Monday.

at no point did me or tombo suggest this may actually occur or that it is likely to occur. It is fun to look at though and shows you what can occur in an anomalous pattern such as the one were in.

[ag3]

if you take the ukmet and go out 24 hours, you might see something like this. The CMC has been hinting at coastal redevelopment as well

Great post.

Thanks.

[Dark Energy]

i know its hr 384, and will likely be gone, but has anyone ever seen sub -40 850s?

well considering the cold bias of the GFS still lives on, i wouldnt bank on any super cold stuff it shows if the other guidance are against it. Case in point. With this latest ULL that will be over the area. The GFS was consistently showing a 1000-500 thickness sub 510, which it finally backed off of. Also, it was alone in bringing -20C h85 temps which was also out to lunch given now it only brings those temps as far south as Lake superior. So, the model has been too cold still, and this was not even in the long range. It was pretty close to this upcoming event. Just look at the CMC/Euro combo and you'll get reality. Also, this upcoming week i dont see being very earth shattering cold under this ULL. What, -16C 850s on TUE? This week the park will see low 30s, maybe mid 30s as the ULL moves farther away. The MOS looks high as usual tho. But i already made an old thread on that.

[tombo82685]

well considering the cold bias of the GFS still lives on, i wouldnt bank on any super cold stuff it shows if the other guidance are against it. Case in point. With this latest ULL that will be over the area. The GFS was consistently showing a 1000-500 thickness sub 510, which it finally backed off of. Also, it was alone in bringing -20C h85 temps which was also out to lunch given now it only brings those temps as far south as Lake superior. So, the model has been too cold still, and this was not even in the long range. It was pretty close to this upcoming event. Just look at the CMC/Euro combo and you'll get reality. Also, this upcoming week i dont see being very earth shattering cold under this ULL. What, -16C 850s on TUE? This week the park will see low 30s, maybe mid 30s as the ULL moves farther away. The MOS looks high as usual tho. But i already made an old thread on that.

didn't they say after the gfs update it had a warm bias?

[Dark Energy]

didn't they say after the gfs update it had a warm bias?

Yea, with the 2m temps I think. But aloft, to me, it's still the same old POS.

[Dark Energy]

dont get me wrong, low 30s is still way below normal. But for some peeps that are saying this upcoming week under the ULL will be colder than the last one are wishcasting. I just dont see it.

[Kaner587]

well considering the cold bias of the GFS still lives on, i wouldnt bank on any super cold stuff it shows if the other guidance are against it. Case in point. With this latest ULL that will be over the area. The GFS was consistently showing a 1000-500 thickness sub 510, which it finally backed off of. Also, it was alone in bringing -20C h85 temps which was also out to lunch given now it only brings those temps as far south as Lake superior. So, the model has been too cold still, and this was not even in the long range. It was pretty close to this upcoming event. Just look at the CMC/Euro combo and you'll get reality. Also, this upcoming week i dont see being very earth shattering cold under this ULL. What, -16C 850s on TUE? This week the park will see low 30s, maybe mid 30s as the ULL moves farther away. The MOS looks high as usual tho. But i already made an old thread on that.

Euro brought in 850's of -20 and the recent runs of the NAM have -18 850's (at least 12z didnt check 18z). In fact, for a while the EURO was probably 5 degrees colder at the surface for next wk. I am also confused by your MOS statement because doesn't the GFS have temps staying below freezing tuesday and wednesday? And also if you're saying mos is high how does that translate to temps above freezing. Am I missing something?

[Guest someguy]

This is NOT correct... the trough going negative does NOT bring the system up the coast.

Given the way the pattern is set for the DEC 16-17 event that wave cannot come up the coast

if you take the ukmet and go out 24 hours, you might see something like this. The CMC has been hinting at coastal redevelopment as well

[Dark Energy]

Euro brought in 850's of -20 and the recent runs of the NAM have -18 850's (at least 12z didnt check 18z). In fact, for a while the EURO was probably 5 degrees colder at the surface for next wk. I am also confused by your MOS statement because doesn't the GFS have temps staying below freezing tuesday and wednesday? And also if you're saying mos is high how does that translate to temps above freezing. Am I missing something?

im talking specifically about nyc. no, the latest mos is not below freezing at all. It may be for the interior areas, but not in the city. The mos is running high for the city as it did with the last ULL over the area when it had 40s and we stayed in the low-mid 30s the whole time.

[Kaner587]

This is NOT correct... the trough going negative does NOT bring the system up the coast.

Given the way the pattern is set for the DEC 16-17 event that wave cannot come up the coast

I think he was taking about the subsequent wave so are you saying that that the wave the euro blows up cannot come up the coast given the pattern? or that the Dec 16th and 17th cannot...the latter makes sense but just want to clarify

Edit: I'm not actually sure which one he is talking about because by 168 (144 +24 hrs) the original wave is gone yet it is also too early for the second one

[Dark Energy]

for the city to get 20s for highs, you need 1000-500 thickness of 510 or lower and 850s at least -18C to -20C. When the park only hit 30 last Thu, the thickness was very close to 510 that day and the 850 temps were around -17C or so. It was really close. if it were JAN, it would be low 20s at best with -20C 850s and that low of a thickness.

[Guest someguy]

It looks very close to the 12z CMC which so far NO one has mentioned

I did in the MIDALANTIC va SUB FORUM

here is the 12z ukie at hr 144 looks like it would prob bring precip up to balt

[WeatherX]

Kinda looks warm

[Guest someguy]

Is the euro at least cold enough for all snow, or what's the deal with that? Oh and yeah Day 10 events work out about 5% of the time as originally depicted so if we're in the bulls eye at Day 10, that's probably not going to work out, but the Day 5 event could. I think it might.

all fair points...

keep in mind the 0z EURO was further east that the 12z

and there IS a diference between having a model.. ANY model showing a MECS or HECS event at day 10

versus showing a MECS / hecs it when you also know the -NAO is severely west based and the -AO is tanking

[Kaner587]

all fair points...

keep in mind the 0z EURO was further east that the 12z

and there IS a diference between having a model.. ANY model showing a MECS or HECS event at day 10

versus showing a MECS / hecs it when you also know the -NAO is severely west based and the -AO is tanking

thank you DT this is what I said earlier...its important to realize its not fantasy land showing ridiculous solutions. Will it happen as modeled? maybe maybe not but to say its 10 days out blah blah blah doesn't give this threat its due attention

[Dark Energy]

Euro brought in 850's of -20 and the recent runs of the NAM have -18 850's (at least 12z didnt check 18z). In fact, for a while the EURO was probably 5 degrees colder at the surface for next wk. I am also confused by your MOS statement because doesn't the GFS have temps staying below freezing tuesday and wednesday? And also if you're saying mos is high how does that translate to temps above freezing. Am I missing something?

i saw most of the euro runs for the upcoming ULL, but not all of them, and i can say i didnt see any -20C 850s on the Euro, and if there were, it wasnt nearly as many as the GFS. As far as the NAM goes, yea, it may have had it but again i didnt see it. I think Earthlight posted a shot of the nam with temps close to -20C. the nam has -19C 850s over the area at 84s. good luck with that at that range. the latest euro has 850s near -18C for mid week. Will be interesting to see how high we get. The clouds may be a wild card in all this tho. the last ULL had a lot of clouds modeled but we ended up partly sunny on some days and not BKN as progged.

[Guest someguy]

Kinda looks warm

On the ukmet ? maybe maybe not...

the UKMET past 72 hrs is not very good... its OK...

recall How far EAST the ukmet was with the CURRENT Low for the midwest 5 and 6 days ago...

it was more east than the OP GFS and GFS ensemble mean

I am simply making the point that wave is THERE and the Ukmt supports that

Given the supressed pattern it will be plenty cold enough

[Kaner587]

i saw most of the euro runs for the upcoming ULL, but not all of them, and i can say i didnt see any -20C 850s on the Euro, and if there were, it wasnt nearly as many as the GFS. As far as the NAM goes, yea, it may have had it but again i didnt see it. I think Earthlight posted a shot of the nam with temps close to -20C. the nam has -19C 850s over the area at 84s. good luck with that at that range. the latest euro has 850s near -18C for mid week. Will be interesting to see how high we get. The clouds may be a wild card in all this tho. the last ULL had a lot of clouds modeled but we ended up partly sunny on some days and not BKN as progged.

True...im not arguing that its going to be 20 degrees next wk for NYC metro I'm just pointing out that for a while the GFS was on the warm side of things. Its going to end up being very similar to this week (maybe a little colder for highs with clouds+ possible snow showers early on).

[Dark Energy]

True...im not arguing that its going to be 20 degrees next wk for NYC metro I'm just pointing out that for a while the GFS was on the warm side of things. Its going to end up being very similar to this week (maybe a little colder for highs with clouds+ possible snow showers early on).

i agree on this. that is a fair statement. But some were saying a solid 5F or so colder than the last event. Im not buying that just yet. But again, we'll see. It will be nice to see the snow showers/squalls around again tho.

[tombo82685]

On the ukmet ? maybe maybe not...

the UKMET past 72 hrs is not very good... its OK...

recall How far EAST the ukmet was with the CURRENT Low for the midwest 5 and 6 days ago...

it was more east than the OP GFS and GFS ensemble mean

I am simply making the point that wave is THERE and the Ukmt supports that

Given the supressed pattern it will be plenty cold enough

what i like about the next 10 days, with the vortexs floating arounnd the northeast all it takes is one storm, which was shown by the 12z euro to phase with it and produce a big storm for someone. The pattern has a lot of potential, especailly with the hostoric blocking, you can get crazy outcomes.

[SnoSki14]

It should be almost exactly the same next week as it's been this past week, including the lows. Actually the lows will be warmer next week because we may not experience ideal radiating conditions. Not even the suburbs of the city are forecast to reach the teens anymore. Coldest day will probably be Tuesday, it should still be below freezing for many places.

[Zir0b]

12z euro looks almost like a March 01 setup for the day 8+ storm