bluehens Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I seem to remember last December starting off with tons of blocking and potential but nothing happening initially which leads to tons of angst. Then BOOM we got 12/19. Seems like some patience may be needed here. I know this level of blocking/-NAO is very unusual in such a strong Nina but I think the Atlantic is going to help us most of this winter....persistence FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 When the Euro shows something like this I always remind people it got the pressure within 1mb and the center within 50 miles of the 96 Blizzard at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 When the Euro shows something like this I always remind people it got the pressure within 1mb and the center within 50 miles of the 96 Blizzard at 168 hours. Well lets hope this stays out to hour 168, then we need lightning to strike twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 When the Euro shows something like this I always remind people it got the pressure within 1mb and the center within 50 miles of the 96 Blizzard at 168 hours. I think its important to note that this isn't a model predicting a storm with an UNFAVORABLE upper level setup. We have a robustly -AO, -NAO, 50/50 low and what looks like a neutral to maybe slightly pos PNA for a second just in time for some amplification of this system. Its a lot different than fantasy land GFS (or for that matter EURO since at 240 it often shows storms that dont end up as advertised) showing a large storm in a seemingly unfavorable set-up. Just an important fact to keep in mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 How can anybody not be excited by the signals at this range? I'm stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 This storm is largrely generated by the Polar Jet.... Impressive QPF for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 How can anybody not be excited by the signals at this range? I'm stoked. Remember the President's Day storm of 1989? In fact, that phrase should be on every forecasters desk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Remember the President's Day storm of 1989? In fact, that phrase should be on every forecasters desk. I don't think many of us were remember that... but yeah that storm dumped 20" in ACY and not a flake in NYC from what I read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I don't think many of us were remember that... but yeah that storm dumped 20" in ACY and not a flake in NYC from what I read. It was basically a model error in the short range the opposite of what occurred in the January 2000 event...the NGM model was grossly off with the track and evolution of the system but I don't think we'll ever see that bad of a forecast inside 24 hours ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 You mean '79, no? There was a great snowstorm in south Jersey in Feb 89...which you might be talking about..don't think it was Prez Day though... No, I mean 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It was basically a model error in the short range the opposite of what occurred in the January 2000 event...the NGM model was grossly off with the track and evolution of the system but I don't think we'll ever see that bad of a forecast inside 24 hours ever again. not to mention that was almost 22 years ago and while our modeling isn't perfect (far from it) its a lot better and more comprehensive then it was back then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 You mean '79, no? There was a great snowstorm in south Jersey in Feb 89...which you might be talking about..don't think it was Prez Day though... Yeah i think PD1 was 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 What kind of ratios are we talking in the interior of PA?? 12:1? ok i through this together really quickly. Im going to start from greatest amt to least amount. basically take 20 miles east of nyc and draw a line straight down thats that seperates snow from rain pink- 2-2.5 whitish yellow 1.75-2 blue-1.5-1.75 darker blue-1.25-1.5 lime green-1-1.25 turquise-.75-1 yellow-.5-.75 pinkish red-.25-.5 greenish blue-.1-.25 pinkish purple-.01-.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 not to mention that was almost 22 years ago and while our modeling isn't perfect (far from it) its a lot better and more comprehensive then it was back then The modeling was tremendously better in 1995 than it was in 1989...the 3-4 year period from 1989 to around 1993 saw the biggest advancement in forecast models of any 3-4 period since 1970 by a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yeah i think PD1 was 89. no...PD1 was '79.. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/19790217-19790219-4.77.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I can only think of what this board would have been like during President's Day week of 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 PD I: 1979 PD 2: 2003 Now let's carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I can only think of what this board would have been like during President's Day week of 1989. Considering it was going to be the first real all snow event since 1983, probably very hyped....January 1987 did drop a foot of snow on many parts of the NYC metro but the amounts varied quite a bit with some places seeing as little as 6 and others around 12-13...it also switched to rain and sleet...the 1979 event would have been priceless as well, it was very close to the 2/6/10 event but was shifted maybe 50-75 miles more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I can only think of what this board would have been like during President's Day week of 1989. how bout a much more recent example...the storm that we wont be mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 how bout a much more recent example...the storm that we wont be mentioned I think I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I think I know... 3/5/01. lol well i guess it will be mentioned....but I believe wwbb (for all you newbies wright-weather forum) was in existence then so for anyone that was on that at that time maybe you could chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 What kind of ratios are we talking in the interior of PA?? 12:1? 12-1 thats prob it...32 line is just east of the citys I will have euro info also now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 You mean '79, no? There was a great snowstorm in south Jersey in Feb 89...which you might be talking about..don't think it was Prez Day though... it wasnt presidents day, it was like feb 25 or so 1989.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yeah i think PD1 was 89. LOL....this had me laughing...revisionist history at its greatest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 first threat gets sheared out, vortex is to far south despite an increase in hgts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm waiting for someone to post the 12z JMA 192 hours has a big low over Georgia that looks to come up the coast if the JMA went out beyond 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 When the Euro shows something like this I always remind people it got the pressure within 1mb and the center within 50 miles of the 96 Blizzard at 168 hours. lol talk about throwing gasoline on a fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 12-1 thats prob it...32 line is just east of the citys I will have euro info also now Just need to shift somewhat more to the west for the heavier stuff to get in here... would love 1-1.25"+ of QPF Still way to early to be even talking about it as it's still 8-9 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 384 brings siberia to south central canada just about to enter northern plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 384 brings siberia to south central canada just about to enter northern plains haha beat me to it...this thing is coming even further south if we were to extrapolate...looks to possibly have a storm also with energy on the Pac coast. Cold run 850s dont rise above 0 (and temps for the matter for the most part) for the hole run past 60 hrs. Also long duration weird looking storm from 240ish on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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