mattinpa Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 what makes this possible, is there is a vortex or cutoff at h5 sitting over the lakes at hr 174...this pumps the ridge along the east coast negatively tilted and allows the storm to flow right around it right into long island... How big a storm is this 240-hour threat? 4+ inches? 8+ inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 222 the storm has been absorbed by that vortex at h5 and is part of it now....lgt precip still over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 How big a storm is this 240-hour threat? 4+ inches? 8+ inches? bigger than 8 esp nyc metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 At 174 hours (before the storm arrives), the total QPF map shows about 1" for Philly, and 1.5" for NYC (numbers go gradually from 1 to 1.5 as yo head from Philly to NYC) At 222 hours, Philly has about 1.75" of QPF, but that goes up drastically as you head NE...all of Central NJ has 2.5 to 3" of QPF, and NYC/LI has over 3" of QPF. So, this storm looks like .75" of QPF as snow in Philly, and 1 to 1.5" of QPF as snow in Central Jersey, and 1.5", or even slightly more than that as snow for NYC. These maps are annoying to read, so this could be off, but I tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 At 174 hours (before the storm arrives), the total QPF map shows about 1" for Philly, and 1.5" for NYC (numbers go gradually from 1 to 1.5 as yo head from Philly to NYC) At 222 hours, Philly has about 1.75" of QPF, but that goes up drastically as you head NE...all of Central NJ has 2.5 to 3" of QPF, and NYC/LI has over 3" of QPF. So, this storm looks like .75" of QPF as snow in Philly, and 1 to 1.5" of QPF as snow in Central Jersey, and 1.5", or even slightly more than that as snow for NYC. These maps are annoying to read, so this could be off, but I tried. i need practice on my snow making maps...ill do a map now to show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 And the GFS doesn't have anything in this time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 240 that low is cutoff over lake erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hrs 192 just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 December 19th big event two years in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wow. ECMWF at hour 204 would be feet of snow. If of course it stays all snow. Crazy totals if right, we would be looking at Feb 5-6th 2010 numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wow. ECMWF at hour 204 would be feet of snow. If of course it stays all snow. Crazy totals if right, we would be looking at Feb 5-6th 2010 numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Tombo, does this screw all of CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yes I know its a weenie rendition... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 ok i through this together really quickly. Im going to start from greatest amt to least amount. basically take 20 miles east of nyc and draw a line straight down thats that seperates snow from rain pink- 2-2.5 whitish yellow 1.75-2 blue-1.5-1.75 darker blue-1.25-1.5 lime green-1-1.25 turquise-.75-1 yellow-.5-.75 pinkish red-.25-.5 greenish blue-.1-.25 pinkish purple-.01-.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Nice map Tom!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 And remember, this is a day 8-9 event, not day 9-10 event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 ok i through this together really quickly. Im going to start from greatest amt to least amount. basically take 20 miles east of nyc and draw a line straight down thats that seperates snow from rain pink- 2-2.5 whitish yellow 1.75-2 blue-1.5-1.75 darker blue-1.25-1.5 lime green-1-1.25 turquise-.75-1 yellow-.5-.75 pinkish red-.25-.5 greenish blue-.1-.25 pinkish purple-.01-.1 Fook, looks like I'll be driving to NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 no one isafraid thatbthe block and 50/50 will b too strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 please don't get me wrong. this is a great possibility. im just trying to keep my options open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I got a little extra giggity in me giggity this afternoon.....what an epic run of the Euro....should be a fun week of tracking, to say the least. If the storm were to happen as progged, we would truly be in uncharted territory during this ENSO event (as Don S eloquently pointed out) ..fun times especially for the youngsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Basically puts us CNJ folks in the jackpot. Unlikely to stay with this solution, but it's a testament to what can happen in a pattern with historic blocking. Not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Basically puts us CNJ folks in the jackpot. Unlikely to stay with this solution, but it's a testament to what can happen in a pattern with historic blocking. Not impossible. Does that low get pulled NW because the trough goes negative or is it a combination of the block + 50/50 forcing it to go underneath WHEN the trough goes negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 here is the 12z ukie at hr 144 looks like it would prob bring precip up to balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Once the Euro has this type of solution for 3 or 4 runs in a row then everyone should start getting excited - chances are 0Z Sunday will not have a storm or a storm that takes a completly different track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 whoa.. just checked the 12z euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 how do i ignore certain users? i know i could do it over on eastern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Is the euro at least cold enough for all snow, or what's the deal with that? Oh and yeah Day 10 events work out about 5% of the time as originally depicted so if we're in the bulls eye at Day 10, that's probably not going to work out, but the Day 5 event could. I think it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 whoa.. just checked the 12z euro... I'm waiting for someone to post the 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Is the euro at least cold enough for all snow, or what's the deal with that? Oh and yeah Day 10 events work out about 5% of the time as originally depicted so if we're in the bulls eye at Day 10, that's probably not going to work out, but the Day 5 event could. I think it might. unless our days have shortened to 19.2 hrs a day this is not a day 10 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 unless our days have shortened to 19.2 hrs a day this is not a day 10 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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