Potential winter threats

[isnice]

suppression causes depression

that said, of course it still bears watching, but weve seen this before and it dint end pretty

[Sundog]

suppression causes depression

that said, of course it still bears watching, but weve seen this before and it dint end pretty

We've also seen it end very pretty. PDII, blizzard 96, dec 19th 2009, etc. A storm suppressed in this range means absolutely nothing.

[jrodd321]

We've also seen it end very pretty. PDII, blizzard 96, dec 19th 2009, etc. A storm suppressed in this range means absolutely nothing.

Yes exactly!

And if he is referring to "we've seen this before" as in that first little dried out clipper a few weeks ago that went south, this is a totally different setup.

[tombo82685]

here is the 144hr gem, pretty decent consensus so far with a storm coming out of the se

[earthlight]

GGEM turns the corner and brings the storm up the coast at 162

[earthlight]

[tombo82685]

johm, where is the extended gem on ewall, i cant find it?

[earthlight]

johm, where is the extended gem on ewall, i cant find it?

12z is here..only goes out to 180 hrs

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

[tombo82685]

12z is here..only goes out to 180 hrs

http://www.meteo.psu...avnloopnew.html

thank you

[Allsnow]

Im very shock in the lack of intrest in this event........i see model threads for a lake cutter for the last 6 days...yet nada for this.....which is prob our ost legit threat so far thi early winter

[SnoSki14]

Im very shock in the lack of intrest in this event........i see model threads for a lake cutter for the last 6 days...yet nada for this.....which is prob our ost legit threat so far thi early winter

Given what has just transpired over the past week, not to mention this event is still way out there, I'm not surprised by the lack of interest. If things get better with this event as we get closer, then they'll likely be more interest.

[ag3]

Im very shock in the lack of intrest in this event........i see model threads for a lake cutter for the last 6 days...yet nada for this.....which is prob our ost legit threat so far thi early winter

I agree.

[ag3]

Given what has just transpired over the past week, not to mention this event is still way out there, I'm not surprised by the lack of interest. If things get better with this event as we get closer, then they'll likely be more interest.

5-6 days is not way out there.

[RowanBrandon]

Anybody going to make a snowfall map yet?

[Sundog]

For the storm coming tomorrow we had people follow it literally for over 200 hours. People were even calling it at over 160 hours. Now there is a storm on the map closer to game time than the calls being made for the last storm and people aren't even looking at it. People are strange.

[gkrangers]

I will get onboard when we are 96 hours from first flake.

[Riptide]

For the storm coming tomorrow we had people follow it literally for over 200 hours. People were even calling it at over 160 hours. Now there is a storm on the map closer to game time than the calls being made for the last storm and people aren't even looking at it. People are strange.

This system was also being compared to the December 5th clipper.

[Ace]

For the storm coming tomorrow we had people follow it literally for over 200 hours. People were even calling it at over 160 hours. Now there is a storm on the map closer to game time than the calls being made for the last storm and people aren't even looking at it. People are strange.

I certainly am looking at this storm, but I think the reason people are not paying much attention to this storm is because it does not look like it is going to become a big storm at this time. If the models were showing a 988mb low over the benchmark, there would be a lot more interest.

[Allsnow]

I certainly am looking at this storm, but I think the reason people are not paying much attention to this storm is because it does not look like it is going to become a big storm at this time. If the models were showing a 988mb low over the benchmark, there would be a lot more interest.

You are prob right.....but people need to get last year out of there heads and take what we can get.

[earthlight]

Given what has just transpired over the past week, not to mention this event is still way out there, I'm not surprised by the lack of interest. If things get better with this event as we get closer, then they'll likely be more interest.

Maybe if we stopped tracking storms at 220 hours, there would be less of this. There should be no lack of interest in this event.

[Isotherm]

Maybe if we stopped tracking storms at 220 hours, there would be less of this. There should be no lack of interest in this event.

Agree.

[WxLover]

We've also seen it end very pretty. PDII, blizzard 96, dec 19th 2009, etc. A storm suppressed in this range means absolutely nothing.

Agree! I can remember Friday a week before the Jan. 96 blizzard, Weather World in the extended forercast said the low would stay to the south and not come up into the mid Atlantic. The following Mon. they were changing the forecast. The storm would come much farther north. So be cautious 5-6 days out.

[SnoSki14]

By the way, remember when I stated it could get into the 60s with the upcoming event on Sunday and everyone thought I was crazy, Well.........

IT WILL LIKELY BECOME QUITE MILD ON THE COASTAL PLAIN ON SUNDAY,

WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 DEGREES. READINGS MAY NOT GET MUCH

HIGHER THAN THE 40S IN PARTS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,

THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY WORK ITS

WAY THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING

TO SHOWERS. THE FRONT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE TO

CAUSE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AT MANY

LOCATIONS. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW

ACCUMULATION.

[Colin]

I think the lack of interest is because it doesn't seem to be a very moist system...by the time the storm nears the Northern Mid Atlantic and New England it's getting sheared out...it gets sheared out to almost nothing. Even the GGEM which turns the corner there's very little precip associated with it by the time it's affecting us. Hopefully it changes, but I'm not counting on it especially with all the variables.

[Kaner587]

By the way, remember when I stated it could get into the 60s with the upcoming event on Sunday and everyone thought I was crazy, Well.........

IT WILL LIKELY BECOME QUITE MILD ON THE COASTAL PLAIN ON SUNDAY,

WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 DEGREES. READINGS MAY NOT GET MUCH

HIGHER THAN THE 40S IN PARTS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,

THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY WORK ITS

WAY THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING

TO SHOWERS. THE FRONT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE TO

CAUSE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AT MANY

LOCATIONS. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW

ACCUMULATION.

I'll give you this..its going to be a lot warmer than I expected but before you claim victory realize that for 95% of people that post in the NY/NJ/PHL metro threads the temp will not reach 60 and probably not even close. Upper 40's (to around 50) seems like a good bet for NYC north with low to mid 50's for central jersey and PHL

[tombo82685]

through hr 102, the storm in the midwest streaming east is deeper already sub 996

[daxx]

By the way, remember when I stated it could get into the 60s with the upcoming event on Sunday and everyone thought I was crazy, Well.........

IT WILL LIKELY BECOME QUITE MILD ON THE COASTAL PLAIN ON SUNDAY,

WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 DEGREES. READINGS MAY NOT GET MUCH

HIGHER THAN THE 40S IN PARTS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,

THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY WORK ITS

WAY THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING

TO SHOWERS. THE FRONT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE TO

CAUSE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AT MANY

LOCATIONS. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW

ACCUMULATION.

Can you tell me what this has to do with our winter threats? Cant you put this somewhere else.

[tombo82685]

hr 114 has retrograde snow into nyc and phl all of nj to...just going off the 0z run, the hgts are a good bit lower, the retrograde storm is a good bit closer at hr 114

[tombo82685]

through hr 126 compared to 0z, storm is further south and weaker

[Allsnow]

through hr 126 compared to 0z, storm is further south and weaker

Makes sense if where going to get snow from that retro...forget about the storm to our south