Potential winter threats

[tombo82685]

the euro really is delaying this more so than the gfs. That retragrading low is going to hold the cards to what this potential can do and how far north it comes

[tmagan]

maps?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[Huffwx]

Thanks for the updates--

Looks to be a potentially NASTY ice storm for my region---(SW VA in the BEST CAD region)

As we all know, long duration light accrues much better than short bursts of heavy.

[tombo82685]

post hr 192 the euro hooks the block up with se ridge. the euro is getting wacky now, it cuts off a storm just off hatteras, sub 984

[tombo82685]

the constant easterly flow has pushed the frz line all the way to to w pa and wv, 850s are plenty cold though

[tombo82685]

yea the euro has a 980-988 low that meanders off the se coast for 2 days plus, its cut off from the flow. The block hooks up with a ridge in the middle of the country. So it has a trof off the west coast and east coast.

[mattinpa]

hr 168 brings lgt precip to i80 in pa...lgt to mod precip up to balt...850s at dc frz line all the way down in southern va

I suppose it's good it does have precip. that far north.

[CooL]

Whenever we get an -NAO in the -3, -4 range, we know thats gonna suppress storms like last year. The block is just way too strong and its winning on the models, hopefully that changes.

[earthlight]

post hr 192 the euro hooks the block up with se ridge. the euro is getting wacky now, it cuts off a storm just off hatteras, sub 984

Not totally wacky given the blocking that's present on this specific run. It actually wraps the CCB around and hits Long Island..coastal NJ..and eventually Eastern MD and VA with snows at 212hrs.

[earthlight]

By the way, nobody giving the CMC any love tonight? We definitely have one thing, now, which is the consensus of potential at this range. Edit..just saw the GGEM link, but here's the image anyway.

[earthlight]

Wow...the closer we get to this blocking event, the more extreme the guidance seems to get with it's presence. This pattern is going to have a sharp cutoff, but if we get any stronger shortwaves in this flow, the potential definitely exists for something towards the significant end of the spectrum...specifically from Philly north..as long as that confluent block isn't over-powerful.

[earthlight]

When you look at the broader picture, in the perspective of the upper level flow, the Euro is certainly getting there. It's trended towards a better looking depiction aloft the past several runs with this feature. We will have to see where this ultimately ends up going, but all of the attention flags are up as far as I am concerned. I like what I see.

[Ericjcrash]

6Z GFS looking great through 120. well better than 00z lol

[Voyager]

I can only imagine what this pattern would look like without the blocking that we have in place...we would probably all be outside in bermuda shorts.

That would suit me just fine.

Yep - the NAO is our savior this winter.

Why? Cold air with no snow is like sex without an orgasm. Both are pretty much a huge bummer.

[Alpha5]

6z GFS continues the north trend, not really sure what the euro is doing, UKMET has a low in the OV by 144. All depends on the retrograding ULL over the northeast and PV interaction.

Timing seems off on some models

[Alpha5]

GFS ensembles are literally a mess. Some have a storm forming a the sw, others have a FROPA, 1 or 2 look like the op and still others have a clipper to the north

[Rainshadow]

This is similar to last winter in a sense with the PV over the Canadian Maritimes, the faster it erodes, the more north the system can come. The longer it lingers, the more sheared/suppressed the system will get. The thermal field for snow vs other ptypes does not look that wide so what's good for Philly may not be good for DC or what's good for NYC may not be good for Philly, etc

[Quakertown needs snow]

At least we still have potential threats and cold air to help.

Hopefully we can get a nice white coating in time for xmas.

[isnice]

Unless the polar vortex over SE Canada gets out of the way this thing is not going to realize it's full potential. What we need is for the ridge to have time to become more established out ahead of this thing with high pressure over SE Canada and then we can really talk. On the GFS, all we end up with is weak troughing and 1008 mb low at 138hrs on the op 0z run which then gets shunted out to sea. The current track reminds me of a storm from last year where I was under a winter storm warning in Morris County, NJ and the only thing we got the whole night was virga. I kept waiting for the precip shield to advance north but it stayed put just as all the models had predicted with a very sharp cutoff. Areas less than 50 miles from me to the south saw over a foot and I didnt even get a trace.

Yes, this is what I've been saying. The only thing holding this further north is that high pressure system just to the southeast of Florida. If that wasn't there, this would most certainly be a fish storm. That's also why the surface is plenty cold but 850s are way up there.

[Allsnow]

hr 108 the storm souther ark on the 12z gfs....does not retrograde that low like the euro does...so it does not delay the thursday storm.

[RowanBrandon]

12z GFS is suppressed again.

[Allsnow]

Gfs is further south this run and gives central Va a accumlating snowfall

[Allsnow]

Good hit for places like cincy and northern kentucky on the 12z gfs...

[Ji]

so much for the north trend. DC north is in big trouble

[Allsnow]

so much for the north trend. DC north is in big trouble

Ji its 120 hrs out.......how many times did you see this last year..........

[KEITH L.I]

That's where you want the GFS at this time range.JUst hope it doesn't phase to early which has been the trend this year so far

[jrodd321]

so much for the north trend. DC north is in big trouble

Oh yea. HUGE trouble. I mean it really does suck that what everyhing 120 hours out is a lock. What a shame.

[Allsnow]

The diff between the 06z run and 12z was with the 50/50 low being weaker......which allowed for the further north advancment of the preciep.

12z 500mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_120m.gif

06z 500mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_120m.gif

[SnoSki14]

These things will almost always trend north in time, especially in a La Nina. Although it would be funny if Richmond and most of Virgina gets a few inches of snow while we're still in the hole.

[blizzardof09]

I'm new here and was on easternuswx.com before it was axed lol......just wanted to say that in my few years of following weather a storm system that's 120 hours out is going to change a bunch of times either good or bad for the east coast. Were in a decent pattern right now cold is around nao is about to tank, the pacific eh. waffling in the models is gonna happen and think this is still a legitiment threat for the east coast.