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Potential winter threats


tombo82685

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GGEM has a boatload of QPF....

And it bombs to 979 mb, get this baby a toward a west shift...

100 or so miles of wiggle room 144 hours to go. Id like to see the GGEM and Euro ensembles once they;re availble. I liked the spread on the gfs ensembles

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So is the UKMet showing snow, too, or a mix?

I'd say it might mix the coast itself and rain in SNE, but those saying it has a rain solution here are not correct...at least if you don't live on the immediate shore or LI. Look at the orientation of the H5 trough at 120 hours. The UKMet probably actually hooks the system around and deepens it with the phase with the Polar Vortex.

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trends definitely aren't DISCOURAGING this aftn. Could be better but with the ukie on the NW edge and the GFS on the SE edge I'm not too unhappy with where we're at (for some reason I'm loving the double negatives today)

I agree with this post.

Obviously I'd like all the models to have the ideal coastal solution but that almost never happens this far out.

I'm just happy to see model consensus that we are close to our first big hit of the year.

If it doesn't pan out at least it's going to be a fun week reading the forum and watching the models.

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I'd say it might mix the coast itself and rain in SNE, but those saying it has a rain solution here are not correct...at least if you don't live on the immediate shore or LI. Look at the orientation of the H5 trough at 120 hours. The UKMet probably actually hooks the system around and deepens it with the phase with the Polar Vortex.

almost a carbon copy of what the 12z euro had yesterday

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I'm sure I wasn't the only one who saw the changes aloft on todays 12z Euro. Check out the heights at 108 hours 12z compared to 120 hours at last nights 00z. Really a tremendous improvement in every way imaginable at that level.

we just got to get that low to slow down, or that vortex to phase faster. I dont like how this storm seems like its right on storm number 1 heels.

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trends definitely aren't DISCOURAGING this aftn. Could be better but with the ukie on the NW edge and the GFS on the SE edge I'm not too unhappy with where we're at (for some reason I'm loving the double negatives today)

Agreed. Who wants to be in the bull's eye at this range? That never seems to work out. Let the models waffle back and forth over the next few days. I'll start worrying about details in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

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