Ridingtime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 fooled all of us haha I suck at reading those maps but that is showing a nice storm right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GGEM..very close at 144..looks better that 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I suck at reading those maps but that is showing a nice storm right? yes its hard to tell based on the small image I can see, but you'd at least suspect the PJ and STJ s/w phase a little bit late, hence the pressure falls east of hatteras. It would favor coastal areas verbatim but at least another model has a strong storm off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GGEM..very close at 144..looks better that 0z 00z missed the phase, it happens here albeit a bit late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GGEM..very close at 144..looks better that 0z The euro should be mighty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Late phase on the 12z/13 GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The euro should be mighty interesting. in the 12z model thread in the general forum they were talking about the on/off pattern the EURO has been on with its 00z and 12z runs now for 2 days...on at 12 off at 00z. The plot thickens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Just looking at the past few runs of the EC and GFS... With so many individual s/w and pockets of vorticity embedded in the canadian "vortex," very subtle changes in the timing and orientation had big effects on the past few runs. There's obviously a good chance we alternate hits and misses as we move forward. It's going to be a bumpy ride. With the longwave trof sharpening in a favorable location around day 6, we don't need that much help from a piece of the vortex dropping in. I liked how HPC characterized the situation as a 5% probability of major east coast storm. I think the probability of some impact should be higher, maybe 10-25%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Late phase on the 12z/13 GGEM: That run verbatum would deliver at least several inches for coastal areas including NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 That run verbatum would deliver at least several inches for coastal areas including NYC. yes...definitely cant consider it a complete miss just nothing major. Would take anything at this point lol but with the potential on the table It'd be nice to capitalize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The main point all along still remains: and that is we are approaching a set up that yields favorable potential for a storm. All the models still have a storm too, it's just a matter of placement. No one should be giving up, especially now this far out, because of one or even 2 and three models runs. The pattern is what matters most now, and the pattern is still looking decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 yes...definitely cant consider it a complete miss just nothing major. Would take anything at this point lol but with the potential on the table It'd be nice to capitalize. Yes, I agree, a sloppy inch would be somthing to build on. The NAM at hr 84 looks interesting even if it kills the biggy after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 yes...definitely cant consider it a complete miss just nothing major. Would take anything at this point lol but with the potential on the table It'd be nice to capitalize. All I want is to preserve this kind of solution (12z GGEM) on the guidance until we get inside 72hrs. From there a major hit is clearly a possibility. Getting a big hit on day 6 doesn't make it more likely than if the model showed a near miss at day 6. Gradually shrink the ensemble spread. Lock in the major features. Keep a big hit in the cards until we are in range with the players all in NA. That's what I'm hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 heres a look at the 12z gfs indiv ens runs, still shows a good amount of hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 only 4 now are complete misses...not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 were doing absolutly fine this far out. if the euro and gfs were at two completely opposite ends I would be worried but as I said earlier the fact that we definitly have some sort of low to track is a big factor. Instead of the typical case where we are relying on offshore cyclogenisis which may or may not occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 were doing absolutly fine this far out. if the euro and gfs were at two completely opposite ends I would be worried but as I said earlier the fact that we definitly have some sort of low to track is a big factor. Instead of the typical case where we are relying on offshore cyclogenisis which may or may not occur. Exactly. I really don't understand this panic while we are 5-6 days out stitll and all models are a very close miss. Would you rather the models be showing a lakes cutter in stead of a close miss off the coast? Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Exactly. I really don't understand this panic while we are 5-6 days out stitll and all models are a very close miss. Would you rather the models be showing a lakes cutter in stead of a close miss off the coast? Jeez. People just need the visual validation to make their optimism have some backing in reality. Especially people with limited or no meteorological knowledge. Starting with the GEFS, every other 12z model run has been encouraging, visually, so you have probably noticed less doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 People just need the visual validation to make their optimism have some backing in reality. Especially people with limited or no meteorological knowledge. Starting with the GEFS, every other 12z model run has been encouraging, visually, so you have probably noticed less doom and gloom. I've learned the hard way that you never put too much stock in one model run and you don't even put too much stock into multiple runs unless its inside of 84hrs and even thats been wrong before. Example 2001 storm. A few mets I know personally are still hesitant to this day to pull the trigger because of that disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Gradually shrink the ensemble spread. Lock in the major features. Keep a big hit in the cards until we are in range with the players all in NA. That's what I'm hoping for. GREAT post...and I do like what I am seeing thus far. We've got a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The main point all along still remains: and that is we are approaching a set up that yields favorable potential for a storm. All the models still have a storm too, it's just a matter of placement. No one should be giving up, especially now this far out, because of one or even 2 and three models runs. The pattern is what matters most now, and the pattern is still looking decent. Exactly. I knew there were going to be mood swings with some people but you can't expect the data to lock onto a solution and stay there for 7 days straight. You're going to have runs where the phase is missed, then runs w/ a full phase. If the models become consistent in showing nothing for 2-3 full cycles, then it would be time to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 .5 days out and people are already getting ready to write it off we still got like 5-6 days till the anticipated storm threat... I'm just watching the models and being patient hundreds of solutions are gonna be shown the next few days so sit back and enjoy the show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GREAT post...and I do like what I am seeing thus far. We've got a ways to go. Agree. eduggs post was great. Show me this spread at 72 hours and I am happy. Let the details work themselves out from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Are you guys doing the euronalysis in this thread or the one in the general forums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Are you guys doing the euronalysis in this thread or the one in the general forums? im doing it here for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 what time does it come out?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 what time does it come out?? right now, its out to hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 78 has the first storm getting precip up to dc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 also has lgt snow for southern va, with an area of lgt to mod snow in sva and cva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 at hr 84, the hgts across the center of the country are a lot lower...storm number 2 is over nm and arz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.