tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 i wonder if that first system being progged further north is throwing things off now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 We whiffed on the phase because of the ridging that develops over the Rockies at hr 84..that screws up the entire wavelength and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If the ECMWF jumps back on board today all the enthusiasm will be back lol its just one model run and its still six days out plenty of time for things to change. I would almost rather not have the storm show up this far out since accuracy is so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Well the good thing is that we are a week away from this potential event and things can and do change. That and the overall set up is more favorable than it has been up until now this winter for something. Better to be in this position now than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Well the good thing is that we are a week away from this potential event and things can and do change. That and the overall set up is more favorable than it has been up until now this winter for something. Better to be in this position now than later. Closer to 6 days or less. Will be interesting to see the ggem and euro, but not liking the overall trending from last night ecm/ggem and with the ensembles as well. Plenty of time and lots of cold and potential the next 1 - 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Closer to 6 days or less. Will be interesting to see the ggem and euro, but not liking the overall trending from last night ecm/ggem and with the ensembles as well. Plenty of time and lots of cold and potential the next 1 - 2 weeks. agreed. trend is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If the ECMWF jumps back on board today all the enthusiasm will be back lol its just one model run and its still six days out plenty of time for things to change. I would almost rather not have the storm show up this far out since accuracy is so low. If that is true my first thought is what is different between the 12z ecmwf initialization scheme vs its 00z run because it would be following an on/off/on/off/on pattern exactly. One can never say we never because ma nature will come bite ya, but in la nina winters where phasing is more difficult and/or more difficult to forecast for an east coast event, my skepticism about any model solution is higher than average until we get within 96hrs of the meat of the storm. This cuts both ways Jan 2000 was not "suppose" to happen and March 2001 had NJ in its epicenter at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Christmas Day Storm needs to come further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 agreed. trend is not good. I think it's hilarious that we are already defining a trend off really one model run of the Euro (0z). This is also the first time the GFS has showed this solution after 2 previous model runs showing a storm. I'm not trying to imply that we should still definitely get a storm, but I think it's ridiculous that with one bad model run, people already start calling that a "trend." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If that is true my first thought is what is different between the 12z ecmwf initialization scheme vs its 00z run because it would be following an on/off/on/off/on pattern exactly. One can never say we never because ma nature will come bite ya, but in la nina winters where phasing is more difficult and/or more difficult to forecast for an east coast event, my skepticism about any model solution is higher than average until we get within 96hrs of the meat of the storm. This cuts both ways Jan 2000 was not "suppose" to happen and March 2001 had NJ in its epicenter at 84hrs. It seems right now timing is the main issue, the longer it takes for the short wave to cross the better chance it has of missing the phase and getting carried out to sea. My point is, its still too early to call this one a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Just to put this in perspective...I went back and looked at my Wxsim forecast (which relies heavily on a GFS/NAM mix) from last December 19th storm....which resulted in 15" of snow in my backyard. The forecast on the 16th indicated Partly Sunny. I remember the blizzard of 1996 where 48 hours before almost all outlets were forecasting the storm to stay to the south. Point is...try not to get to hyped over any particular (6z) model and down on the (12z) model etc. In this pattern it is unlikely any one solution this far out will verify. What is interesting is there is storminess on the maps and cold to boot....either way this is a very interesting pattern. Enjoy it even if you don' t get snow in your yard Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Actually I think the real trend has always been to keep this suppressed and OTS. Only really 1 run of the Euro and 2 runs of the GFS have showed this thing coming up the coast. I also believe the GGEM and to a lesser degree the UKIE have been off shore as well. I think it's hilarious that we are already defining a trend off really one model run of the Euro (0z). This is also the first time the GFS has showed this solution after 2 previous model runs showing a storm. I'm not trying to imply that we should still definitely get a storm, but I think it's ridiculous that with one bad model run, people already start calling that a "trend." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Actually I think the real trend has always been to keep this suppressed and OTS. Only really 1 run of the Euro and 2 runs of the GFS have showed this thing coming up the coast. I also believe the GGEM and to a lesser degree the UKIE have been off shore as well. I'm pretty sure the Euro showed it twice, but regardless, I don't think there's a trend either way, for storm or no storm. What there is though is a better overall set up and potential for a storm, and the models will most certainly show different variations of what can happen when it's this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Actually I think the real trend has always been to keep this suppressed and OTS. Only really 1 run of the Euro and 2 runs of the GFS have showed this thing coming up the coast. I also believe the GGEM and to a lesser degree the UKIE have been off shore as well. GGEM has been offshore, not the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Actually I think the real trend has always been to keep this suppressed and OTS. Only really 1 run of the Euro and 2 runs of the GFS have showed this thing coming up the coast. I also believe the GGEM and to a lesser degree the UKIE have been off shore as well. The euro has gone hit / miss / hit / miss the last four runs. The 00z run of the gfs was its first hit. The 12z ukie yesterday would have been snow to rain in nyc-phl, its 00z run looked like a hit The can ggem has been pretty much a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Again...timing is everything. With this type of storm where were not relying on a transfer of energy from lets say the midwest to a developing coastal the fact that we defintily have some sort of low to track I like are chances. Also, if you look at last winter, and I'm not saying its even much of a comparison because of the strong nina this year but most of the storms trended north with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The euro has gone hit / miss / hit / miss the last four runs. looking forward to the 12z hit today to fill the 12z gfs void Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 gfs ens mean is a good bit further north with storm number 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 and the block continues and we are cold thru day 16..which should make it a fun holiday season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z ens mean is still pretty bullish on storm 2, though not as bullish as 6z, but regardless its still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 gem at hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 looks a good deal North and west of 00z...can't tell if its gonna miss the phase though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 looks a good deal North and west of 00z...can't tell if its gonna miss the phase though It looks like the same areas that cashed in with the clipper and the surprise ULL will get hit with storm #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 120 gem and hr 132, looks like it missed the phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 120 gem and hr 132, looks like it missed the phase What was the model showing before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 144 fooled all of us haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GGEM looks fine. Especially at this stage. Much better than 12z GFS. Threatening for sure, regardless of specific surface impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 color image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 am I crazy or did it look like this storm was in full whiff mode on the GGEM...guess it really was close at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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