isnice Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hmmm...where have I seen this same kind of situation proclaim itself? Uhhh...LAST WEEK! I'm thinking suppression, but it's nice to see nonetheless: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It better not keep moving north and bring the warmth with it. It might bring the mid-level warmth with it, but not the surface warmth...the GFS the last few runs has shown a nasty ice storm for VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Pretty impressive QPF progged for the OH valley w/ this wave. Definite improvement this run, and that's all we need this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 At least this is a Day 6 event, not a 240 hour storm like the previous ones we had to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 This could be good for us since these events tend to trend further north in time, just like they always do in a Nina. Although it would be hilarious if this one was suppressed, either the block is too strong leading to suppression or too weak leading to a cutter. We lose no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 agreed tim, just need that low to move further north to bring the confluence a little further north... Also its a legit threat.....i just want some snow....I know it may not look secys....but we need to get last year out of our heads and just take what we can get. Love how chi get close to .5 on this run for that storm also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wow love the setup. Got a week to play around with this system, I think we got a legit show at a nice snowfall from this. I'm more concerned that it will be too warm than it moving north - looks better tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 its getting closer. Dc gets hit decently, central va looks even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Ehhh, Euro might be interesting that 50/50 is to far south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Unless the polar vortex over SE Canada gets out of the way this thing is not going to realize it's full potential. What we need is for the ridge to have time to become more established out ahead of this thing with high pressure over SE Canada and then we can really talk. On the GFS, all we end up with is weak troughing and 1008 mb low at 138hrs on the op 0z run which then gets shunted out to sea. The current track reminds me of a storm from last year where I was under a winter storm warning in Morris County, NJ and the only thing we got the whole night was virga. I kept waiting for the precip shield to advance north but it stayed put just as all the models had predicted with a very sharp cutoff. Areas less than 50 miles from me to the south saw over a foot and I didnt even get a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Ehhh, Euro might be interesting that 50/50 is to far south! The upcoming weekend system rebuilds the -NAO block and doesn't allow the 50/50 low to escape, there might be some minor changes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 its funny, the gfs ens mean doesnt even really show anything for the 16-17, but tdecent agreement 3 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Unless the polar vortex over SE Canada gets out of the way this thing is not going to realize it's full potential. What we need is for the ridge to have time to become more established out ahead of this thing with high pressure over SE Canada and then we can really talk. On the GFS, all we end up with is weak troughing and 1008 mb low at 138hrs on the op 0z run which then gets shunted out to sea. The current track reminds me of a storm from last year where I was under a winter storm warning in Morris County, NJ and the only thing we got the whole night was virga. I kept waiting for the precip shield to advance north but it stayed put just as all the models had predicted with a very sharp cutoff. Areas less than 50 miles from me to the south saw over a foot and I didnt even get a trace. I woudn't say gets out of the way; we don't want too much ridging. Especially in a strong nina year w/ an unfavorable north pacific sgnal, if we lose the 50-50 low, we'll end up with the s/w tracking too far north for wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 its funny, the gfs ens mean doesnt even really show anything for the 16-17, but tdecent agreement 3 days later Do you think this occurs because the shortwave and associated energy is isolated? I imagine that the lower resolution ensembles would encounter some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Do you think this occurs because the shortwave and associated energy is isolated? I imagine that the lower resolution ensembles would encounter some problems. i havent seen the 0z indiv ens yet. But i know the 18z ens were not really as bullish, they sheared the first wave out around the 144hr probably do to the location of that low near maine. Like the ens are showing, there must be and embedded shortwave streaming west to east that they are picking up on 3 days later and bring it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 euro gives nyc area and central and northern nj lgt precip from the retrograding low at hr 114 n 120 n 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 euro gives nyc area and central and northern nj lgt precip from the retrograding low at hr 114 n 120 n 126 Green light for snowblower preparations has been give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Green light for snowblower preparations has been give. lol reminds me of dunkin doughnuts commercial when they are all waiting in there snowplows for it to snow. Then they see the first flake, drop the plow and sparks fly lol....any ways hr 138 has the 16-17 storm over ten valley and ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 144 has the storm in the southeast, but the maine storm is further south compared to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 150 has a sub 1008 low over ten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 156 sub 1008 low over north central ten....lgt to mod and mod ptecip in ohio valley and ten valley...frz line on va/nc border...850s are at dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 162 1008 low over sw va...lgt to mod precip over all of va into ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 168 brings lgt precip to i80 in pa...lgt to mod precip up to balt...850s at dc frz line all the way down in southern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 174 lgt precip from central nj to just south of abe to bradford. 850s at balt, frz line way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Tombo does this look like a potential freezing rain/ice storm for the Mid-Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 180 precip gets sheared , some lgt precip out in wpa and down by dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Tombo does this look like a potential freezing rain/ice storm for the Mid-Atlantic? yes, most deff. the frz line never even comes close to rich, its stuck down by va/nc border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 With that W. Atlantic low pressure, you would have a very hard time getting precip. up this way, although the 00Z GGEM has different ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 With that W. Atlantic low pressure, you would have a very hard time getting precip. up this way, although the 00Z GGEM has different ideas. maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 186 and 192 basically same ordeal as hr 180... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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