Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 977mb off the NJ coast at 168 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 stalls out there and pummels everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 moves to the benchmark by 183, still snowing hard in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 finally starts to die out and fill in at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 977mb off the NJ coast at 168 hrs. This is just a massive hit....holy crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Its actually deeper on the 6 Z at 150 hours versus 156 on the 00z by 2mbs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 6z GFS, jesus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 based on everyones analysis I thought that the strength of the s/w was less important than the PV breaking off and phasing in. If the s/w is strong and no phasing, no big storm. Maybe I'm missing something. The position of the 500 vort is critical. The Euro last night had the 500 over NNE, the 12z had it over the Lakes. Both were about the same strength but the difference in location had big implications on the storm's genesis and track. The s/w matters as well but if the 500 is over Maine you're getting a NW upper level flow over the NE and the storm misses wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Its also a tad closer to the coast at 162 hrs then the 00z was same time frame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Deepens to a 975mb and stalls off the NJ coast south of LI and New England. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Shows 2 inches liquid equiv for NYC again, which means around 2 feet again!. Precip shield further west this time also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 damn, this has NAM type QPF output. 2" QPF from PHL to NYC. SE Mass with over 3" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS versus the ECM... Be interesting to see if the GFS keeps this type of solution for 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS versus the ECM... Be interesting to see if the GFS keeps this type of solution for 12 Z Nah. The ECM had one run with the system OTS. Let's wait for model consistency before placing the models into camps. At this point, they ALL have the storm, which is what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS versus the ECM... Be interesting to see if the GFS keeps this type of solution for 12 Z I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z Euro shows what it did yesterday, and its not GFS vs. Euro just 1 run ago the Euro showed the same solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z Euro shows what it did yesterday, and its not GFS vs. Euro just 1 run ago the Euro showed the same solution. I am not saying that that is not a possibility but as it comes down to the latest data it would be the GFS versus the ECM. GFS @ 00z had the storm and phased together at the right time... GFS @ 06 Z had the storm and phased together again at the right time... ECM did not phase & the result was well out at sea. 12 Z Ensemble means showed basically what tonights op ECM did and tonights 00z means supported the OP...though probably alot of spread.... Now, granted all models have the storm...GGEM looked like ECM and UKMET looked like it would be more on the GFS side...just as far as latest data is concerned... So it will be very interesting to see if the GFS keeps on this track & phasing potential or if it goes the way of ECM & vice versa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Fantasy land has a retrograding 6-12" of snow for NYC +300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 6z GFS Ens mean looks good still. Curious to see the indies, as the SLP is further off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Most of the 6z GFS ensemble members are east of the OP. In fact, 8 out 11 show a complete miss: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Reality check above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Reality check above. Right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Identical run after. Wow this thing has so much potential its not even funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Identical run after. Wow this thing has so much potential its not even funny. Potential to not happen and needing a perfect scenario? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Potential to not happen and needing a perfect scenario? Yep. HPC totally throwing out the GFS, likes the 0z Euro and its ensembles. This is looking pretty bleak right now from my perspective but we do have plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 LOL... Keeping the potential threats in check in a pattern like this is tough... we are in somewhat uncharted waters in many ways. It's December. There is massive blocking. There is a strong Nina, which may or may not be weakening as we speak. The models are resolving this ticking time bomb issue by showing a bomb somewhere. Nina says "Supress and squash." GFS says "massive blizzard." The potential is huge, but it looks like some people got out of hand last night. We have about 4 more days to watch the models work this out...and then another 4 days to watch them work out the next S/W, and then another... See HPC disco for some expert logic from this far out: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 242 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010 VALID 12Z FRI DEC 17 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 20 2010 THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE FORTHCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...BUT NOT BEFORE ADDING CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY TO BOTH THE LONGWAVE AND SHORTWAVE PATTERNS AFFECTING NORTH AMERICA. THE DOMINANT LONGWAVE ELEMENT CONTINUES TO BE A RETROGRADING UPPER HIGH FROM GREENLAND INTO CANADA WHICH ACTS AS A HUGE BLOCK AGAINST SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW INCREASING SPREAD RESOLVING THIS PATTERN WITH TIME...WITH BOTH THE BLOCKING REGIME AND ITS POSITION AT THE MORE DATA-SPARSE HIGHER LATITUDES SUGGESTING LOW PREDICTABILITY. THUS...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS TO RELY UPON DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE TRANSITIONING ENTIRELY TOWARD ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO ADDRESS THE GROWING UNCERTAINTY. REGARDING SYSTEM DETAILS...THE 00Z GFS CONTAINS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS EARLY AS DAY 3...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOLUTIONS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH LIE NEAR THE FAST AND STRONG EDGES OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE RESPECTIVELY. THESE DIFFERENCES THEN GROW WITH TIME EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTING TO A SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A MAJOR EAST COAST SNOWSTORM BY DAYS 6/7. COMPARISONS WITH ALL OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WHICH COMPRISES OVER 100 SOLUTIONS...PLACES THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH AN EVENT AROUND 5 PERCENT. THUS...GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL'S SYSTEM DETAILS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ITS SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY DISCARDED. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/12Z JMA...PROJECT A MEAN DAY 3-7 PATTERN THAT CONTAINS LONGER WAVELENGTH AND LESS AMPLITUDE FOR TROUGHS EVENTUALLY EXITING THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS BROADER/FLATTER PATTERN...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORT BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS...TELECONNECTS WELL WITH THE UNUSUALLY LARGE POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY FORMING OVER BAFFIN ISLAND IN CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD. JAMES Potential to not happen and needing a perfect scenario? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 0z and 6z but how long till sh%t this week will be interesting. come on euro jump on the bandwagon today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 0z and 6z but how long till sh%t this week will be interesting. come on euro jump on the bandwagon today! The 06z gfs run was the ultimate early Christmas present, around 25" of snow throughout its entire run for Philadelphia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 lol let me know when it enters north america Not back at work til Thursday, maybe by then it will be in North America and the models won't be 1000 miles apart. 25:1 ratio on that Bufkit you posted, didn't realize the gfs thought we were in the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 HPC totally throwing out the GFS, likes the 0z Euro and its ensembles. This is looking pretty bleak right now from my perspective but we do have plenty of time. Usually you're the voice of optimism I'm surprised at your lack of faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Usually you're the voice of optimism I'm surprised at your lack of faith. I think he knows that such a scenario cannot occur in a strong la nina. I'm not giving up yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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