GD0815 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Not even really close this run...but the potential is still there and the pattern aloft is still good. I agree, but this has definitely always been a realistic solution with this block in place.....now if it starting cutting to the lakes, it would be easier to write it off given the pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 UKMET looks like it would be on the western fringe, but point is all the models have... 1)PV breaking into 2 2)amplifying STJ s/w 3)phasing good news, legit storm threat and what looks to be a fun week of model tracking, studying for finals and not getting much sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Now watch the GFS back off tomorrow too. Doesnt mean it isnt going to happen, of course, just that there will be people tearing their hair out the next few days. yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Nah-- it just gives some substance to the (legit) fears that this is a fragile and fluid situation, and a 100 mile shift can make it a fish storm lol. Yeah it's definitely a fragile situation. I do understand that some enjoy seeing model runs bury us with snow almost as much as snow actually burying us. But for me, seeing models runs hit us 5+ days out does absolutely nothing for me because I see runs change so much when it's longer range. I need it to be a bit closer to the possible event for model runs to excite me. Right now it does not matter to me if the runs show a hit or miss, as long as there is potential in the pattern. Although I did give reasons in this thread earlier today on why I feel the pattern isn't that favorable for us to be hit by a big coastal storm. But there are positives as well, so at least we have some potential and something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 never in our lifetimes have models literally not vacillated a wk before an event. If they behaved like that we wouldn't need meteorologists, the models would predict everything correctly. So this is expected and lets just keep everything in perspective and cross our fingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yeah it's definitely a fragile situation. I do understand that some enjoy seeing model runs bury us with snow almost as much as snow actually burying us. But for me, seeing models runs hit us 5+ days out does absolutely nothing for me because I see runs change so much when it's longer range. I need it to be a bit closer to the possible event for model runs to excite me. Right now it does not matter to me if the runs show a hit or miss, as long as there is potential in the pattern. Although I did give reasons in this thread earlier today on why I feel the pattern isn't that favorable for us to be hit by a big coastal storm. But there are positives as well, so at least we have some potential and something to watch. Personally I think a person would go insane hanging on every model run-- all you can do this far out is have the pattern and hope for the best. But expecting it just opens yourself up to disappointment, which happens the majority of the time. If it wasnt like that, NYC would average 60 inches of snow a season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Agreed, right now the threat is on the table and there is pretty good model consensus that there will be a storm, I really wouldn't begin to worry about the details such as track, intensity, precipitation types etc. until we are around 72-96hrs away from the event. never in our lifetimes have models literally not vacillated a wk before an event. If they behaved like that we wouldn't need meteorologists, the models would predict everything correctly. So this is expected and lets just keep everything in perspective and cross our fingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 after the weekend threat, its just dry and cold on the rest of the euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Euro does end up looking a whole bit like the GGEM. Very, very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 its going to be interesting to see what the euro ens show in about an hr and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It will be interesting to see the Euro ensembles. The Euro does end up looking a whole bit like the GGEM. Very, very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 would be nice to see what the ensembles have to say. If they are further SE then the OP that might be a red flag (esp because the 12z which wasn't awful was much further SE than the OP), nothing is this concrete 1 wk out though. Edit: Looks like we're all on the same page lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Great minds think alike?? lol..even if the Euro ensembles are further southeast then the OP I really wouldn't necessarily consider it a red flag this far out, in a few days a different story. would be nice to see what the ensembles have to say. If they are further SE then the OP that might be a red flag (esp because the 12z which wasn't awful was much further SE than the OP), nothing is this concrete 1 wk out though. Edit: Looks like we're all on the same page lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Great discussion's tonight guys.. However, i CANNOT believe there is no love for the UKMET...That baby is going up the coast http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_0z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Great discussion's tonight guys.. However, i CANNOT believe there is no love for the UKMET...That baby is going up the coast http://www.meteo.psu..._0z/ukloop.html Not sure I'd trust the UKMET..especially at this time range. It did a bad job handling this storm that we had today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Not sure I'd trust the UKMET..especially at this time range. It did a bad job handling this storm that we had today. No it did not...but...we still have another respectable model on our team right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 here are the gfs 0z ens members, decent support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 0z nogaps, which is shocking cause you would think this would be the furthest se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 here are the gfs 0z ens members, decent support A few of those come up the coast in the hours following that as well..but the OP is clearly the most bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Just waiting for those euro ensembles to come out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Really awesome signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 check out p 004 member, that would be epic, it gets going at about hr 180 http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 check out p 004 member, that would be epic, it gets going at about hr 180 http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html Lol snow for the entire workweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 check out p 004 member, that would be epic, it gets going at about hr 180 http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html lol retrograde city..anyway, looks like some good support for a storm from the ens.. Its just going to come down to timing of the phase and whether or not this gets shunted ots or up the coast. That euro run was a bummer but i like where we stand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 REGARDING SYSTEM DETAILS...THE 00Z GFS CONTAINS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS EARLY AS DAY 3...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOLUTIONS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH LIE NEAR THE FAST AND STRONG EDGES OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE RESPECTIVELY. THESE DIFFERENCES THEN GROW WITH TIME EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTING TO A SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A MAJOR EAST COAST SNOWSTORM BY DAYS 6/7. COMPARISONS WITH ALL OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WHICH COMPRISES OVER 100 SOLUTIONS...PLACES THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH AN EVENT AROUND 5 PERCENT. THUS...GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL'S SYSTEM DETAILS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ITS SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY DISCARDED. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/12Z JMA...PROJECT A MEAN DAY 3-7 PATTERN THAT CONTAINS LONGER WAVELENGTH AND LESS AMPLITUDE FOR TROUGHS EVENTUALLY EXITING THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS BROADER/FLATTER PATTERN...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORT BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS...TELECONNECTS WELL WITH THE UNUSUALLY LARGE POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY FORMING OVER BAFFIN ISLAND IN CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD. JAMES Since when do they use the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 just for fun heres the buffkit for the 0z gfs for phl http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kphl.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 just for fun heres the buffkit for the 0z gfs for phl http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_kphl.dat oh boy... rain to snow for KISP, only 5 inches... /sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Well, don't be worried about the euro run tnt. We are still kinda far away on this big potential storm. Remember, it's all about timing of the s/w trofs and there will def be more runs to come where some guidance time the phasing right, like the gfs tonight, and we get a storm. Other times, like the euro, no phase, no storm. this will go on for a while until we get close enuf in that the timing is better refined. expect a roller coaster ride in the days to come. Bottle the gfs run tonight cause it is a great case where everything popped just right. Doesnt get much better than that run. Kinda scary tho that the GFS has been garbage out this far and as DT said, it's not really great outside of 84 hrs. So the fact that it has the storm this far out is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 0z ens support the op, though the hr 168 might be closer than 12z, but the distance between the pressures shows prob a good bit of spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 oh boy... rain to snow for KISP, only 5 inches... /sarcasm 21 inches for jfk http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kjfk.dat Too bad that run has only a 5 pct chance of verifying lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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