tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 ukmet at hr 144, seems like it would be a go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Hoping the euro stays steadfast on its idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 96 has lgt precip to bout dc, ice for northern nc and southern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Don't know why but those maps always seem to overplay the ocean influence on our region even w/ a favorable tracking low. Why cant the GFS maps be awesome like the NAM maps lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 96 has the beast gathering energy in the 4 corner area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Through 96 hours the PV seems further east from 12z---arguably less ready to phase into the trough over the Southwest...which by the way is more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ukmet at hr 144, seems like it would be a go very impressive support so far under a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Euro is way more amplified with the southern stream feature compared to the GFS, but also less enthused with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Those crazy snow maps are lousy even right before a storm, so I'm not sure why folks are looking at one for a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Euro is way more amplified with the southern stream feature compared to the GFS, but also less enthused with the PV. Sounds like one effect should balance out the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Sounds like one effect should balance the other. I wouldnt be surprised if it ends up more suppressed given the H5 look through 108, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I wouldnt be surprised if it ends up more suppressed given the H5 look through 108, but who knows. Yeah, the two effects you mentioned should somewhat cancel each other out so hopefully it doesnt end up more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 There's definitely not as much retrograding occurring with the PV features, which is very important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 There's definitely not as much retrograding occurring with the PV features, which is very important. poop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yeah, the two effects you mentioned should somewhat cancel each other out so hopefully it doesnt end up more suppressed. Does it matter if it ends up more suppressed on this run? With close to a week to go, these runs will change many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Trough axis is about 100 miles further east than the GFS at the same time frame (126 hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 there is deff, going to be a storm its already gathering at hr 126, im just not sure how far this is coming up. The h5 patter across the lakes is a little different than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The entire PV pivot and phase is going to occur too far east from what I can see at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Trough axis is about 100 miles further east than the GFS at the same time frame (126 hrs) Perhaps more like the ggem or in between it and the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 this looks a lot like the 0z ggem at hr 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 this looks a lot like the 0z ggem at hr 138 doesn't surprise me at all and maybe isn't so bad at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 150 has a 1004 lows bout 250 miles east of hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 150 has a 1004 lows bout 250 miles east of hatteras Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 doesn't surprise me at all and maybe isn't so bad at this time frame agreed. never want to be in the bullseye this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ECMWF phases a bit too late here... But still, GGEM is like this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Does it matter if it ends up more suppressed on this run? With close to a week to go, these runs will change many times. Nah-- it just gives some substance to the (legit) fears that this is a fragile and fluid situation, and a 100 mile shift can make it a fish storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ECMWF phases a bit too late here... But still, GGEM is like this too. The GGEM is out to sea too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 it all came down to the pv across the lakes. On the 0z it was a good bit futher east than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Not even really close this run...but the potential is still there and the pattern aloft is still good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 agreed. never want to be in the bullseye this far out. Now watch the GFS back off tomorrow too. Doesnt mean it isnt going to happen, of course, just that there will be people tearing their hair out the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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