A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Waters aren't that warm, it's not March. This track is off the coast near the BM, which funnels enough cold air to keep the coast at snow. It would even snow in April with a storm like this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 168 Absolutely loving the signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Enormous potential with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Absolutely loving the signal I'm nervous (as usual), but I agree...pretty good signal. You have to appreciate the meteorology of watching the block in motion and how the PV either retros or breaks off and phases with an incoming s/w. Looping H5 is really cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It would even snow in April with a storm like this lol. Yeah word. That track is literally the most classic coastal track you can have for snow. Anything east or west can throw it all off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Waters aren't that warm, it's not March. This track is off the coast near the BM, which funnels enough cold air to keep the coast at snow. not saying i agree with the poor ratios but you do realize the ocean temperature is a lot higher now than in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ya not really sure what hes looking at...people often make these misinformed posts and all it shows is that they clearly don't know how to analyze a given model solution At 7 days out, nothing is a sure bet. I am just stating the obvious facts the storm will push west as it has done in the past and when it does- the dry slot will rear its ugly head somwhere. Yes I agree the water temps are in the 40's but unless the wind is out of the north the entire length of the storm- there will be some mixing issues. To compare this to 93 or 96 is way to early. I think alot of us are excited that all the models are being consistent with this potential storm event which is about frickin time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Euro is on it's way, but still way too early...we will get into details in about 20 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 What are the snow ratios? Sorry , but with a storm like this and the water so warm- the ratios will be for crap along the coast. Also, dry slotting will screw some on this type of storm event. Generaly, with coastals the snow ratios average around 10 to 1 to 13 to 1, even with temps in the low 20's due to wind limiting the fluff factor of the dendrites. Exceptions would be Jan 6-7 1996 and Feb 1983 where ratios were above 10 to 15. Correct me if i'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 not saying i agree with the poor ratios but you do realize the ocean temperature is a lot higher now than in March? Yeah, thats about as cold as the water will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 not saying i agree with the poor ratios but you do realize the ocean temperature is a lot higher now than in March? Maybe I'm wrong, but the cold air is in place with a storm off the coast at the BM, coupled with a strong -NAO and block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 0z gfs snowfall total at hr 228, thats pretty impressive if this occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Generaly, with coastals the snow ratios average around 10 to 1 to 13 to 1, even with temps in the low 20's due to wind limiting the fluff factor of the dendrites. Exceptions would be Jan 6-7 1996 and Feb 1983 where ratios were above 10 to 15. Correct me if i'm wrong. A really crazy storm was Feb 1961 when we had borderline temps and even a change to sleet (drifting sleet as per Unc W) but the QPF amounts overwhelmed everything else and we got over 2 feet of heavy wet snow! I would take that over 2 feet of fluffy 15:1 any day! That heavy wet snow (especially mixed in with sleet) has amazing staying power! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Only 9-10"? I thought the QPF indicated more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Only 9-10"? I thought the QPF indicated more than that. lol, this is what hpnd after last year, it has skewed expectations. 10 inches is a big snowstorn in our parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 A really crazy storm was Feb 1961 when we had borderline temps and even a change to sleet (drifting sleet as per Unc W) but the QPF amounts overwhelmed everything else and we got over 2 feet of heavy wet snow! I would take that over 2 feet of fluffy 15:1 any day! That heavy wet snow (especially mixed in with sleet) has amazing staying power! About Feb '61, my grandparents say close to 30 inches of snow fell in Jersey City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 0z gfs snowfall total at hr 228, thats pretty impressive if this occurs This cant be right-- it seems to indicate a changeover with the heaviest snowfall over NW NJ. But then I noticed its a snow depth map not a snowfall map lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 About Feb '61, my grandparents say close to 30 inches of snow fell in Jersey City. What a great end to an amazing winter. I'd love to relive that storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 lol, this is what hpnd after last year, it has skewed expectations. 10 inches is a big snowstorn in our parts. more importantly 1.54 in of liquid does not equal 9-10 inches. Realistically this is a 12-18 run for NYC metro area. Doubt that will actually be the case in the end but for this model run it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 lol, this is what hpnd after last year, it has skewed expectations. 10 inches is a big snowstorn in our parts. No, something's up with that map. Taken verbatim the 00z GFS solution should be 12-18" for most of NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 No, something's up with that map. Taken verbatim the 00z GFS solution should be 12-18" for most of NJ/NYC. yeah, that happens with those GFS snow maps all the time, i guess i was just talking in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 my god, they're arguing over snow amounts.. Look at the storm track and set up 1st weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 yeah, that happens with those GFS snow maps all the time, i guess i was just talking in general. Don't know why but those maps always seem to overplay the ocean influence on our region even w/ a favorable tracking low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 my god, they're arguing over snow amounts.. Look at the storm track and set up 1st weenies! Calm down, we're just pointing out how much snow would likely fall IF that particular model run verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 my god, they're arguing over snow amounts.. Look at the storm track and set up 1st weenies! no one is arguing over snow amounts. A map was posted, there was confusion and now analysis of the model output was done. That is all, no one is expecting this to occur verbatim as the GFS says it is (minus some disillusioned few) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Calm down, we're just pointing out how much snow would likely fall IF that particular model run verifies. It wasn't your post.. you explained it quite nicely.. Verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Calm down, we're just pointing out how much snow would likely fall IF that particular model run verifies. we've literally said the exact same thing twice in a row. Great minds think alike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 A really crazy storm was Feb 1961 when we had borderline temps and even a change to sleet (drifting sleet as per Unc W) but the QPF amounts overwhelmed everything else and we got over 2 feet of heavy wet snow! I would take that over 2 feet of fluffy 15:1 any day! That heavy wet snow (especially mixed in with sleet) has amazing staying power! Yeah, 1994 sure does come to mind with regards to heavy sleet and staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ggem ooz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Same general idea on the ECMWF through 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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