Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm loving what I'm seeing and definitely staying up for the euro! But I must say, there's a little ding in my head saying ignorance is bliss. Still can't wait to read what HPC says about this. haha me too I wish I could just fast forward to thursday and see how it plays out. Unfortunately thats the nature of the beast of being a weather enthusiast/meteorologist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I looked through the H5 progression on the GFS first, and it was world's apart from its earlier runs today, PV split w/ the stronger piece over the upper midwest, building heights over the SE US, consequently the s/w amplifies and bombs on the EC. Then seeing the surface reflection was a treat to say the least. Like others have said, I wish it wasn't so far away, but often times w/ major events, models can pick up on the signal about 5-7 days in advance. The teleconnectors are pretty strongly in favor of an EC storm for this period, so it's not BS for sure. Need to monitor the interaction b/t the PV piece and the s/w coming into the CONUS. Very interesting set up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 wow... thank goodness the semester is about to end in the next 3 days--cant wait for those sleepless nights waiting for the Euro and possibly the 6z GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Glad to see that multiple models support this now. Even the precip. shield looked similar to the Euro. But, even if the storm comes, there could be times when the models lose the storm. And a storm is no guarantee. But a good day of runs so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 wow... thank goodness the semester is about to end in the next 3 days--cant wait for those sleepless nights waiting for the Euro and possibly the 6z GFS.. I know.. I missed checking the 6z GFS when I wake up at night. Looks like that time is back again. I only check it if I wake up - no alarm or staying up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I have a feeling this storm will stay on the models run after run like 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 per 0Z GFS Meteostar data... ABE 0.64" PNE 0.83" PHL 1.04" TTN 1.18" EWR 1.41" NYC 1.54" Boston and Providence start out with ~.80-1.00 as SN, then change over to RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I have a feeling this storm will stay on the models run after run like 1993. That is a little bit over the top.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The 00z GFS Ensemble means are a bit more west and tucked in than this afternoon's means, but nothing too dramatic yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The 00z GFS Ensemble means are a bit more west and tucked in than this afternoon's means, but nothing too dramatic yet. this much youd expect 1 wk out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 per 0Z GFS Meteostar data... ABE 0.64" PNE 0.83" PHL 1.04" TTN 1.18" EWR 1.41" NYC 1.54" Boston and Providence start out with ~.80-1.00 as SN, then change over to RN It sounds like a slowed down version of the Millenium storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It sounds like a slowed down version of the Millenium storm. I dont see any similarities other than that it snowed a lot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 00z GGEM has the same general idea, when you loop it at the link below. That being said it seems slightly less enthused with the southern stream shortwave--and may end up a bit east of the GFS OP. The shortwave is still going negatively tilted on the last frame, so it may come up the coast still. The signal for potential remains strong. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I dont see any similarities other than that it snowed a lot lol Lol, the fact that it changed to rain for eastern LI (and then back to snow.) Also some similarities to the snowicane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yup, now that I look at it more objectively the shortwave is getting into the base of the trough at 144 hours, so at the very least it would scrape the coast and significant cyclone development certainly seems plausible beyond that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Lol, the fact that it changed to rain for eastern LI (and then back to snow.) I'm just playing around but ya ur right about the changeover. Thank god this isn's similar to that storm though otherwise we'd have to be worrying until it started snowing about who's getting f'd by the miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm just playing around but ya ur right about the changeover. Thank god this isn's similar to that storm though otherwise we'd have to be worrying until it started snowing about who's getting f'd by the miller B Trust me I like this better than that storm (as depicted anyway.) This has the duration of the snowicane written all over it. Its just going to be a long wait. Trying to keep excitement tempered because its going to suck so much if this ends up not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It sounds like a slowed down version of the Millenium storm. What are the snow ratios? Sorry , but with a storm like this and the water so warm- the ratios will be for crap along the coast. Also, dry slotting will screw some on this type of storm event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Wow, I almost fell of my seat when I saw that storm churning up the coast on the GFS. Once it went negative and the storm was off the coast a bit, I knew this would mark a sig. change. Also, the 1st s/w that was suppressed south gave me a hint that the next storm was going to look much better than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 What are the snow ratios? Sorry , but with a storm like this and the water so warm- the ratios will be for crap along the coast. Also, dry slotting will screw some on this type of storm event. If it happens as shown, we'll have a wind with a predominantly northerly component so SST should be a non issue..... I mean, remember what happened last December on basically the same day? And I believe SST were warmer than this last year at this time-- or about the same. Looks like temps will be in the upper 20s for most of this storm-- snowfall ratios should be 10:1-12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Euro kicks off around 1AM, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 What are the snow ratios? Sorry , but with a storm like this and the water so warm- the ratios will be for crap along the coast. Also, dry slotting will screw some on this type of storm event. If the 00z GFS were to verify, this post would be absolutely wrong....the ratios would be normal or maybe slightly better than normal, and there would be no dry slot to speak of, at all. The H7 drying doesn't make it anywhere near the coast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f174.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Euro kicks off around 1AM, right? Around 12:45-12:50, the info will be both in the main weather forum and this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 What are the snow ratios? Sorry , but with a storm like this and the water so warm- the ratios will be for crap along the coast. Also, dry slotting will screw some on this type of storm event. low to mid 40's this time of yr isn't warm when it could be much higher.Also dry slotting is clearly not an issue with that track...closer track yes but not with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This would be considered a Miller A event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If the 00z GFS were to verify, this post would be absolutely wrong....the ratios would be normal or maybe slightly better than normal, and there would be no dry slot to speak of, at all. The H7 drying doesn't make it anywhere near the coast. http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_0z/f174.gif ya not really sure what hes looking at...people often make these misinformed posts and all it shows is that they clearly don't know how to analyze a given model solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This would be considered a Miller A event? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 low to mid 40's this time of yr isn't warm when it could be much higher.Also dry slotting is clearly not an issue with that track...closer track yes but not with that. Only thing I would be worried about (besides the usual track issues) is when you have a deformation band, you also usually have an area of subsidence nearby which misses out on the really heavy stuff. I saw this two different times-- in Dec 2003 and Feb 2006. It was my "privilege" to be on the wrong side of the band both times, in one case, it meant getting 14" inches of snow while Farmingdale saw 20" 17 miles to my east and in the other case it meant NYC getting 27" 15 miles to my west while I got 17" These really cant be forecast well in advance-- anymore than a local t-storm can be-- its a nowcast type of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 What are the snow ratios? Sorry , but with a storm like this and the water so warm- the ratios will be for crap along the coast. Also, dry slotting will screw some on this type of storm event. Waters aren't that warm, it's not March. This track is off the coast near the BM, which funnels enough cold air to keep the coast at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 00z GGEM has the same general idea, when you loop it at the link below. That being said it seems slightly less enthused with the southern stream shortwave--and may end up a bit east of the GFS OP. The shortwave is still going negatively tilted on the last frame, so it may come up the coast still. The signal for potential remains strong. http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_....jpg 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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