earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The 00z GFS has the southern stream shortwave at 96 hours over Arizona, and the Polar Vortex is more split and ready for a phase. It remains to be seen if the timing will be better this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 A huge trend towards the ECMWF in regards to the southern stream shortwave over the Southwest US at 108 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Is there any correlation with the first and 2nd storm? LIke do we need the first one to go south of us in order to have a chance with the second one or something like that? So would sheared out be better? Or does it have no effect on storm #2? If you think about it, most events in the atmosphere effect each other in some way or another, especially the closer they are. It's not like the earth is infinitely large and a wave can just disappear into space. More often than not, a storm affecting the area one day will have an effect on a storm forecast to impact the area within the following few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 A huge trend towards the ECMWF in regards to the southern stream shortwave over the Southwest US at 108 hrs Is that good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Is that good or bad? Good my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 By 126 hours the Greenland and North Central Canadian ridge is really juiced up...but we're having trouble getting a surface reflection. It's a bit sheared out with the shortwave over the Southwest US and we're still waiting for the PV piece to drop into the trough. That being said, the changes are really dramatic this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 out to hr 129 the s/w is starting to dig in the middle of the country... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Man, the Polar Vortex energy is so close to phasing into the trough axis over the Central US at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Greenland ridging is now building very far west and southwest into Northern Canada, and it's beginning to force the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This is going to get really, really interesting per the 138 hr H5 chart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 phasing too early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This is going to get really, really interesting per the 138 hr H5 chart... Its like watching a movie about to get to the really good part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 At 144 hrs the trough is nearly neutral tilt trying to go negative over the MS river and the phase is occurring rapidly as the PV lobe over the Great Lakes retrogrades west and into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Phased at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 phasing too early? No, if anything it's going to be a bit late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The phase is occurring at hr 147 and here comes the surface low up the Southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 here she comes at hr 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 No, if anything it's going to be a bit late. I thought one of DT's rules was not going negative before the Mississippi River? Lurking in this thread as I'll be in NYC sat-mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yep, here she comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 No, if anything it's going to be a bit late. its going to be really hard for this to phase early with the historic block we have. Sort of like last winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The entire PV is dropping southwest now at 150 hours, shortwave is over Northern MS, and the southern stream is easily recognizable. Surface low is off the Carolinas and deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 So now it's safe to say every model is on board with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 What an absolutely gorgeous, mouth watering depiction at H5 hr 150... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 156 sub 1004 at hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 156 hours and we have a MECS making a b-line for the Eastern coastal plain..snowing in DC and about to get very heavy and head north along I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 1004mb off the outer banks at 159 hrs...moderate snow into DC and light snow already into PHL and NYC. Big snows in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Here we go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 162 hvy snow up to dc, lgt to mod up to phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Amazingly, the surface freezing line is in the exact same spot as the 12z ECMWF from NYC to just east of Trenton and Philly, with 850 line further south than the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 162 hr H5 chart is literally stuff from the textbooks, shortwave is being pulled up the coast...at the surface 998mb just northeast of the outer banks and moving north, deepening rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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