tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 how are these ratios calculated though? if the 850s are warmer, is that taken into account? or are the 850s only warm from VA south? here this explains it http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/346/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 here this explains it http://www.theweathe.../habyhints/346/ oh I see. so that's believable then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 We'll see where the ULL over the East sets up late in the week. Often the ULLs wind up being stronger and move out slower than the models initially show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Reason why it dies out late Thursday is b/c the 50-50 is actually a bit too far south. We need the Greenland block / 50-50 couplet to shift northward at least 200-300 miles to put us in the game for overrunning. Right now, the short wave ejects eastnortheast but runs into strong NWLY confluence behind the departing low from the dec 13th-14th event. Thus we're left with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Reason why it dies out late Thursday is b/c the 50-50 is actually a bit too far south. We need the Greenland block / 50-50 couplet to shift northward at least 200-300 miles to put us in the game for overrunning. Right now, the short wave ejects eastnortheast but runs into strong NWLY confluence behind the departing low from the dec 13th-14th event. Thus we're left with nothing. It truly is amazing how much has to go right for a decent snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic/ N. Mid-Atlantic... If it isnt one thing its another.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It truly is amazing how much has to go right for a decent snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic/ N. Mid-Atlantic... If it isnt one thing its another.. Except last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It truly is amazing how much has to go right for a decent snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic/ N. Mid-Atlantic... If it isnt one thing its another.. It's one of those years in a Mod-Strong Nina.... 1995-1996 and 2009-2010 were banner years and everything went right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Christmas week or New Years Week; we will get a significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Reason why it dies out late Thursday is b/c the 50-50 is actually a bit too far south. We need the Greenland block / 50-50 couplet to shift northward at least 200-300 miles to put us in the game for overrunning. Right now, the short wave ejects eastnortheast but runs into strong NWLY confluence behind the departing low from the dec 13th-14th event. Thus we're left with nothing. If there is so much confluence, why are the upper-levels being forecasted to be so warm? Perhaps it is because the GFS isn't picking up on CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 If there is so much confluence, why are the upper-levels being forecasted to be so warm? Perhaps it is because the GFS isn't picking up on CAD? It's not so much the confluence as it is the orientation of the upper level flow. Look at the northwest winds at H5 that are completely compressing the storm system. It's also doing so while keeping a fresh supply of cold arctic air out of the picture. If the H5 orientation of that vortex was more elongated west to east, we would be setup better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It truly is amazing how much has to go right for a decent snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic/ N. Mid-Atlantic... If it isnt one thing its another.. Well in a strong La Nina, yes, we need a nearly ideal pattern to get a SECS/MECS. There's a reason why basically no KU events occur in strong ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I can only imagine what this pattern would look like without the blocking that we have in place...we would probably all be outside in bermuda shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It's not so much the confluence as it is the orientation of the upper level flow. Look at the northwest winds at H5 that are completely compressing the storm system. It's also doing so while keeping a fresh supply of cold arctic air out of the picture. If the H5 orientation of that vortex was more elongated west to east, we would be setup better. Well said. If the vortex were further NE, we'd see the elongated W-E flow you noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I can only imagine what this pattern would look like without the blocking that we have in place...we would probably all be outside in bermuda shorts. Yep - the NAO is our savior this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yep - the NAO is our savior this winter. Thus far...tropical forcing still lurks. That's why I am hoping so desperately to cash in this December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Except last year. Not sure if I would be considered N. Mid-Atlantic but last yr was a "good" yr here... Nothing off the charts like areas further south experienced.. My 30 yr avg here is roughly 50" with the last 7 yrs averaging 66"... Last yr I finished with 76" ... Not to mention the fact that 52" of that fell in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Thus far...tropical forcing still lurks. That's why I am hoping so desperately to cash in this December. Strongly agree, I think the pattern will fall apart after mid winter and return to "typical" strong nina climo (warm for us). Our best chances may be within the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Strongly agree, I think the pattern will fall apart after mid winter and return to "typical" strong nina climo (warm for us). Our best chances may be within the next month. Well, if 1955-1956 is the decent analog, then maybe March? I know its silly to base it on analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Strongly agree, I think the pattern will fall apart after mid winter and return to "typical" strong nina climo (warm for us). Our best chances may be within the next month. weren't you predicting a -NAO winter? Or are you just assuming that in addition to the terrible pacific the -NAO becomes east based...and our atlantic goes in the crapper as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 weren't you predicting a -NAO winter? Or are you just assuming that in addition to the terrible pacific the -NAO becomes east based...and our atlantic goes in the crapper as well Yeah I predicted a -NAO for this winter, but weakening by late jan and especially february when the nina takes control. I went colder than normal for Jan and warm for feb. 1955-56 was also cold dec/jan and warm in feb, before turning back cool in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Well, if 1955-1956 is the decent analog, then maybe March? I know its silly to base it on analogs... Chris, the big event in 55-56 happened when the NAO went strongly neg (March), so yeah - one would think that w/ the pattern progged for the next couple weeks, we'd get something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Despite the -NAO signal, February tends to be the month when the strong nina tropical forcing wins out over other factors. Here's 1956 Feb: January 1956 had that classic -AO look with the cold corridor from Plains to SE US, and warm in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 And of course Dec 1955 was bitterly cold in the areas currently experiencing the chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 hr 141 has dc gettting lgt to mod snow...precip is just bout to m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 this setup brings flashbacks to last year...hr 144 some precip has spilled over the border, but it looks to stay underneath again...just need to move that low just to the north of maine more to the north and we are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 this setup brings flashbacks to last year...hr 144 some precip has spilled over the border, but it looks to stay underneath again...just need to move that low just to the north of maine more to the north and we are good Its more expansive with the preciep and jucier, like what i see 144 hrs out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 dc area looks to see about a 1-3 2-4 event from tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It better not keep moving north and bring the warmth with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Its more expansive with the preciep and jucier, like what i see 144 hrs out..... agreed tim, just need that low to move further north to bring the confluence a little further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wow love the setup. Got a week to play around with this system, I think we got a legit show at a nice snowfall from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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