Potential winter threats

[Kaner587]

gfs continues to be about as boring as it can possibly get...sometimes i have to wonder if it can be that far off in the longer range.

at least there is no warm up in sight

[Isotherm]

John, the NAM looks a lot more impressive than the GFS as well, although the NAM doesn't have much value at 84hrs.

[NorEaster27]

I am not saying the set-up is perfect but I don't see these upcoming threats as threading the needle

see the post by wes in the main forum under the 12z eruo, this next 2 weeks is very much threading a needle. These are not overrun events where we have more margin for error. Lets just say im not very optimistic in this pattern, its going to take a perfect setup to get a storm up the coast instead of getting crushed.

[earthlight]

John, the NAM looks a lot more impressive than the GFS as well, although the NAM doesn't have much value at 84hrs.

Yeah, it does. There's still plenty of confluence over the area at 84 hours, though...which doesn't suggest this is coming too far north.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_18z/f84.gif

[Kaner587]

see the post by wes in the main forum under the 12z eruo, this next 2 weeks is very much threading a needle. These are not overrun events where we have more margin for error.

I saw it I actually had a little laugh because the poster in this thread said it first. I think the disagreement stems from the fact that I am not talking only about this threat. In general I think this pattern isn't perfect but with everything the way it is I think we can manage one well placed s/w. We'll see though

[earthlight]

see the post by wes in the main forum under the 12z eruo, this next 2 weeks is very much threading a needle. These are not overrun events where we have more margin for error. Lets just say im not very optimistic in this pattern, its going to take a perfect setup to get a storm up the coast instead of getting crushed.

Every event is threading the needle, but I think this pattern has more potential positives than negatives. Definitely a high risk, high reward type pattern. I see Feb 2006 as more of a threading the needle type event, where we had a big storm develop amidst an awful pattern. This pattern is favorable thanks to the PV in Southeast Canada and the near historic blocking development..I think it will produce eventually.

[Diego]

at least there is no warm up in sight

yeah, exiting stuff, cold and dry, then wet, then cold and dry, then wet, etc.

[Kaner587]

yeah, exiting stuff, cold and dry, then wet, then cold and dry, then wet, etc.

well that would be the case if there was wet in between and there isn't. That was the pattern for the first 2 wks of dec tho

[Chris L]

Every event is threading the needle, but I think this pattern has more potential positives than negatives. Definitely a high risk, high reward type pattern. I see Feb 2006 as more of a threading the needle type event, where we had a big storm develop amidst an awful pattern. This pattern is favorable thanks to the PV in Southeast Canada and the near historic blocking development..I think it will produce eventually.

Bingo. Feb 2006 was a heck of lot worse than this current pattern progged to be.

What would make this pattern absolutely pristine if we had EPO ridge and +PNA to go wtith it.....

But this is a pretty good shot at getting something.

[Alpha5]

The 18z GEFS has a storm, similar to the euro ensembles

[SteveB]

I know it's the NAM @ 18z @ it's limit in range 84hrs, but this prog looks threatening IRT the first system.

[Colin]

I know it's the NAM @ 18z @ it's limit in range 84hrs, but this prog looks threatening IRT the first system.

there is a good amount of confluence over the area which would greatly limit the northern progression...we need the confluence to be much less for the 1st system to have any kind of shot. i think the best bet with that is perhaps a 1-2" event...otherwise it's time to look towards the day 7+ potential.

[SteveB]

Not in agreement at all with this post. This is a very active Pacific flow, and the vortex in Southeast Canada is sitting there waiting to amplify into one of the shortwaves shooting across the CONUS. The blocking to the north of this polar vortex, over Central and Northeast Canada and towards Greenland, is actually retrograding westward over the next 5 to 10 days. If this first storm doesn't occur, the Polar Vortex will amplify into the next shortwave and phase--the Euro has another storm just off the coast at Day 10 with a very similar synoptic setup. This is a ticking time bomb, not a thread the needle.

Great post and I strongly agree.

I see alot more potential in this pattern with the historic block pressing the PV to amplify into the lw pattern. Plenty of energy now showing in the STJ as well as we get into the mid-range.

[SteveB]

there is a good amount of confluence over the area which would greatly limit the northern progression...we need the confluence to be much less for the 1st system to have any kind of shot. i think the best bet with that is perhaps a 1-2" event...otherwise it's time to look towards the day 7+ potential.

Exactly, once the massive block begins to retrograde in C Canada it will allow more for the confluence to be pulled farther North (up the coast) as the PV pulls N.

Matter of timing the block, but the fuse is lit.

[Diego]

well that would be the case if there was wet in between and there isn't. That was the pattern for the first 2 wks of dec tho

But right now, it's looking like a more extended period of cold and dry thru at least early next week, unless something develops next weekend. I acknowledge though that we are much better off when its cold than when its not despite this pattern.

[Colin]

Exactly, once the massive block begins to retrograde in C Canada it will allow more for the confluence to be pulled farther North (up the coast) as the PV pulls N.

Matter of timing the block, but the fuse is lit.

Yup...most models seem to have too much confluence over the area...there is time for that to change but time is running out as it's less than 5 days out now. Hopefully we get a little something, and hopefully it proves to only be the appetizer for next weekend. Should be an interesting week of tracking...now we just need to hope it doesn't all fall apart.

[Rainshadow]

Yup...most models seem to have too much confluence over the area...there is time for that to change but time is running out as it's less than 5 days out now. Hopefully we get a little something, and hopefully it proves to only be the appetizer for next weekend. Should be an interesting week of tracking...now we just need to hope it doesn't all fall apart.

Hey Colin, you're here!

Well both the GFS and Euro had 10-20m errors based on their 6-12 hr 500mb forecasts in Alaska and Greenland, so the roller coaster ride will continue tonight. For Tombo I've been tracking the southern stream short wave, it was in far Eastern Siberia for the 12z run.

[tombo82685]

Hey Colin, you're here!

Well both the GFS and Euro had 10-20m errors based on their 6-12 hr 500mb forecasts in Alaska and Greenland, so the roller coaster ride will continue tonight. For Tombo I've been tracking the southern stream short wave, it was in far Eastern Siberia for the 12z run.

for the 2nd storm?

[Rainshadow]

for the 2nd storm?

Yeah.

[tombo82685]

Yeah.

lol let me know when it enters north america

[listarz]

This cold weather has to have a positive (if you like snow) effect on the ocean water for future threats. I live on Long Island. Am I correct in this assumption?

[A-L-E-X]

This cold weather has to have a positive (if you like snow) effect on the ocean water for future threats. I live on Long Island. Am I correct in this assumption?

Water temps down into the mid 40s now.  The right track would cause snow regardless of SST, but lowering them might help in borderline situations. 

[Edge Weather]

I just compared the NAM, GFS and EURO at 12z on Thursday and to my eyes the NAM looked much more like the EC than the GFS, in fact the GFS to my eyes looked very little like either the NAM or the ECMWF.

[A-L-E-X]

I just compared the NAM, GFS and EURO at 12z on Thursday and to my eyes the NAM looked much more like the EC than the GFS, in fact the GFS to my eyes looked very little like either the NAM or the ECMWF.

Possible EE rule in effect-- even this far out lol.

[Quakertown needs snow]

Hey Colin, you're here!

Well both the GFS and Euro had 10-20m errors based on their 6-12 hr 500mb forecasts in Alaska and Greenland, so the roller coaster ride will continue tonight. For Tombo I've been tracking the southern stream short wave, it was in far Eastern Siberia for the 12z run.

Just for Tom?

But Quakertown needs snow also

[tombo82685]

Just for Tom?

But Quakertown needs snow also

quakertown has .5 snow already, tombo-trace... looks like the 0z nam has sniffed out the confluence over the northeast and starts to shear that first threat out.

[Chris L]

Imagine if we get a cutoff low with the potential storm with the size of the block...

[Kaner587]

Imagine if we get a cutoff low with the potential storm with the size of the block...

its gonna be in no rush to move anywhere

[jrodd321]

quakertown has .5 snow already, tombo-trace... looks like the 0z nam has sniffed out the confluence over the northeast and starts to shear that first threat out.

Is there any correlation with the first and 2nd storm? LIke do we need the first one to go south of us in order to have a chance with the second one or something like that? So would sheared out be better? Or does it have no effect on storm #2?

[tombo82685]

Is there any correlation with the first and 2nd storm? LIke do we need the first one to go south of us in order to have a chance with the second one or something like that? So would sheared out be better? Or does it have no effect on storm #2?

i would say it may. For the first storm to hit that vortex would have to move further north. With that being it could throw off the whole process of the next storm since the vortex would be much further north then originally being. Thats just my thought