jrodd321 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 lol...one run nothing, next run there. model consistency fail Yea but now the ukmet and ggem are jumping on too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Doesn't look like that big of a deal to me back here :( heres the 12z euro qpf map...starting with greatest amts to least pink 1.5-1.75 blue 1.25-1.5 red 1-1.25 gray .75-1 orangish brown-.5-.75 green .25-.5 purple .1-.25 turqouise .01-.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Wouldn't there be more then just .5-.75 QPF back here with that type of low stacked offshore? There it is the low just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Jma had this yesterday still has it today, so we have the ukie euro jma and somewhat ggem showing good potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Wouldn't there be more then just .5-.75 QPF back here with that type of low stacked offshore? its a really tight gradient on the west side, but colder. You are in the .5-.75 on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 its a really tight gradient on the west side, but colder. You are in the .5-.75 on the euro. There would probably be some decent snow ratios on the western edge of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Does it stay snow for all of CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Can this storm can any further west or is the greater risk the storm going more to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Can this storm can any further west or is the greater risk the storm going more to the east? at this stage I would say the risk is too far EAST as opposed to west, but if the pv sets up to far west the coast COULD be in trouble but there is not indication yet that that is going to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Does it stay snow for all of CT? what part of ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 what part of ct? Say.. west of the CT River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Can this storm can any further west or is the greater risk the storm going more to the east? The amount of blocking and the strength of the polar vortex to our north over southeast canada suggests this storm likely has the potential to slide east with delayed amplification. I don't think there is much support for a further inland track unless there are some very significant changes aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Tombo...N. Ocean/S. Monmouth in NJ, does this look like an all heavy wet snow event right around 32 the whole storm? seeing that 850s remain East the whole duration (according to this run of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 its a really tight gradient on the west side, but colder. You are in the .5-.75 on the euro. Would like to see more QPF but its impt that the storm is there rather then how much snow will fall (QPF)? What would the ratios be like verbatim 12z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Would like to see more QPF but its impt that the storm is there rather then how much snow will fall (QPF)? What would the ratios be like verbatim 12z euro? QPF is always less in a Nina year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Say.. west of the CT River. i would say your fine, the low goes from the pt of long island to boston, east of the ct river would likely change over. at hr 174 the frz line goes from sw corner of the state to the northeast corner of the state going right over hfd, 850s are souteast of that. 180 the storm is over bos and the frz line is on the eastern border of ct and rhode island. If you do even change over you get a havey front end dump and a good bit on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Tombo...N. Ocean/S. Monmouth in NJ, does this look like an all heavy wet snow event right around 32 the whole storm? seeing that 850s remain East the whole duration (according to this run of course) yea you should be all snow your abv freezing, but 850 are well to your east. Its hard to say, but you should be with that type of track. As long as your not within 5 miles of the ocean you should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 i would say your fine, the low goes from the pt of long island to boston, east of the ct river would likely change over. at hr 174 the frz line goes from sw corner of the state to the northeast corner of the state going right over hfd, 850s are souteast of that. 180 the storm is over bos and the frz line is on the eastern border of ct and rhode island. If you do even change over you get a havey front end dump and a good bit on the back end. Okay, thanks for the info tombo. Of course, it's safe to say this will change a few times between now and next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Would like to see more QPF but its impt that the storm is there rather then how much snow will fall (QPF)? What would the ratios be like verbatim 12z euro? well your in the low to mid 20s so you should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 yea you should be all snow your abv freezing, but 850 are well to your east. Its hard to say, but you should be with that type of track. As long as your not within 5 miles of the ocean you should be fine. Awesome thanks for taking your time to answer my question, let the fun begin hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomieV Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 So what area is in the jackpot zone at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 So what area is in the jackpot zone at this point? nobody. the storm may not even occur. it's very, very possible it will be supressed/way out to sea given the setup. these posts are really not needed until <3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 So what area is in the jackpot zone at this point? going off 12z euro, qpf wise would be nyc area, but the ratios would help phl and surrounding burbs, so prob phl-nyc and metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The amount of blocking and the strength of the polar vortex to our north over southeast canada suggests this storm likely has the potential to slide east with delayed amplification. I don't think there is much support for a further inland track unless there are some very significant changes aloft. Yes. I also think the greater risk is too far east, with the less amplified ridge out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 QPF is always less in a Nina year.... Not to mention the sun angle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 HPC sees it... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 225 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010 VALID 12Z WED DEC 15 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 THE BASIC SURFACE ISOBARIC PATTERNS AND METEOROLOGICAL REASONING WERE LEFT UNCHANGED IN OUR FINAL EDITION. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UNUSUALLY ANOMALOUS UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING FROM GREENLAND TO CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FAIRLY DEEP MEAN TROFS OFF EACH COAST THIS PERIOD WILL BE BOOKENDS TO A VERY FLAT MEAN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE NEW SET OF 00Z/12 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SUPPORTED THE REASONING OF THE PRELIMS. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SLOWLY PIVOTS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ON ITS S SIDE MOVE ACROSS CA/THE GRT BASIN/THE ROCKIES. GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD DEVELOPING WITH THESE SHORTWAVE FEATURES THU AND BEYOND IN THEIR TREK ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL MOST PLACES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE MILDER AIR OVER THE WRN STATES STRUGGLES TO PENETRATE THE COLD PATTERN OVER THE EAST. THE MAIN THRUST OF MILDER AIR MAY BRING PRECIP TO THE SERN CONUS THU OR FRI. THE PACIFIC NW WILL SEE FREQUENT INTERVALS OF PCPN IN ONSHORE FLOW WITH HEAVY PCPN EXPECTED AS FAR S AS THE NRN HALF OF CA BY FRI DAY 5. FARTHER E...LAKE EFFECT SN WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY UNTIL THU...WHEN AN ILL-DEFINED YET SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPS S OF THE OH RIVER IN CONNECTION WITH WHATEVER WAVES MIGHT BE CROSSING THAT REGION. 12Z MODELS: THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE RESOLVING THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE CONUS UNDERNEATH THE RETROGRADING CANADIAN BLOCK THU DAY 4 AND BEYOND. THE 12Z/12 GFS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS OWN 00Z/12 CONTINUITY IN MOVING A NRN STREAM UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION DAYS 3-5 AND DOWNPLAYING THE SRN STREAM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NEW CANADIAN/UKMET SUGGEST OTHERWISE...COMING UP WITH A FORECAST QUITE AT ODDS WITH THAT OF THE GFS. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN BOTH ROUGHLY FOLLOW OUR PRELIM ECMWF/ECENS MEAN CONTINUITY THU/FRI...YET STILL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EACH OTHER THOSE DAYS. THE UKMET GIVE A BETTER FIT TO OUR CONTINUITY DAY 4 WHILE THE CANADIAN GIVES A BETTER FIT DAY 5. THE UKMET APPEARS TO TRACK A WAVE TOO FAR NE FRI DAY 5 GIVEN THE MEAN DEEP TROF OFF THE E COAST. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS THE FLATTER CANADIAN SOLUTION. THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD INTO THE UNCERTAIN TIME FRAME NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS. AM NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT OF ANY SOLUTION NOW. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS ITS MAIN ERN CONUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLOWER DAYS 5-6 THAN THE CANADIAN...SLOW ENOUGH TO LEAD INTO THE CHANCY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST NEXT WEEKEND DESCRIBED BELOW. 00Z/12 ENSEMBLE 500MB SPAGHETTI PLOTS HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA OF POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS LATER SAT 6 AND BEYOND. IT WAS MOSTLY ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT WERE SUPPORTING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST NEXT SAT OR SUN. THE 06Z/12 GFS RUN SEEMED TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS POSSIBILITY FOR NEXT SAT/SUN....BUT THE NEW GFS RUN HAS GONE BACK FLAT. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD EARLIER SHOWN A CHANCE FOR CYCLOGENESIS NEXT WEEKEND OF THE SE COAST BUT THE MOST RECENT RUN HAD BACKED OFF FROM IT. NOW THE 12Z/12 RUN OF THE ECMWF IS BACK ON BOARD...DEVELOPING A MAJOR SNOWSTORM NEXT WEEKEND FROM INTERIOR NC TO NEW ENG. IF CORRECT...IT COULD LAY DOWN A HEAVY BLANKET OF SNOW IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE BIG SYS LAST YEAR...ALMOST TO THE DATE! A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THAT AREA 6 DAYS LATER WOULD BE HIGHLY FAVORED IN THE PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN. FLOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomieV Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Thanks for the response. Painfully aware may very well may not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 oh, forgot to mention after the storm, the areas that get snow the burbs see lows in the single digits, cities in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Any word from thé euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Any word from thé euro ensembles? they start coming out on raliegh in 5 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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