phlwx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Dont forget what DT said last night about the euro run...No surface reflection but upper levels supported it.. The 500 looks similar in pattern but without a stronger vort the capturing doesn't take place...there's a 12 dm difference in the 500 vort height between 0z and 12z...the stronger vort on the 12z is giving you a bomb...the 0z is weaker, thus a weaker solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 on hr 174 wow, NYC gets absolutely destroyed, Blizzard conditions most likely verbatim this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 qpf for big cities...ill do a map for the rest of the area now...abc1234 you want to handle the rest of the pbp? nyc 1.6 phl 1.1 dc .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yeah mega storm fotr NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 850's are offshore the entire storm, with the surface freezing line through NYC, just east of Trenton, to east of Philly the entire storm. The only areas above freezing would be the eastern half of central and southern NJ, south of a line from east of Philly and Trenton, to NYC, but again 850's below freezing the entire storm, and with precip showing liquid equivalent of 1.25-1.50 roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Sure, if there is anything interesting I will chime in. Thanks for doing the map. qpf for big cities...ill do a map for the rest of the area now...abc1234 you want to handle the rest of the pbp? nyc 1.6 phl 1.1 dc .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 174 hours is the most unbelievable panel I have seen since either Feb of last winter or February 2006 and I say that with absolute certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yep, very interesting, that is for sure. You could just see this coming with that stronger energy moving through the four corners area and then along the Gulf Coast. Hope it is true. We have the Euro on our side though! 174 hours is the most unbelievable panel I have seen since either Feb of last winter or February 2006 and I say that with absolute certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Hr. 228 and 234 a storm does form off coast and is a near miss, but is worth watching in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Tom, Can't wait to see your map. Thanks for doing this for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 back to back 12z runs showing an absolute bomb. 1.6" for NYC, def megastorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 heres the 12z euro qpf map...starting with greatest amts to least pink 1.5-1.75 blue 1.25-1.5 red 1-1.25 gray .75-1 orangish brown-.5-.75 green .25-.5 purple .1-.25 turqouise .01-.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Man..the 12z CMC isn't too far off either. There's something to be said for the tremendous potential with this vortex sitting in southeast Canada. A few days ago, Isotherm and I were chatting about how the MECS potential would arrive should the vortex become more elongated west to east with the active Pacific Jet. Well, look what we have here...the entire vortex shifts more west to east (confluent flow to our north) in the first link below. There's the pacific jet energy over the Southwest states. By the second and third frame, you can see the phase occurring, all of this made possible by the tremendous Greenland Block which the Euro weeklies had pegged for (no pun intended) weeks. Interesting week coming along, I say get your sleep while you can.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f120.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f144.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Nice map Tom, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Nice map Tom, thank you! no prob...hopefully this storm pans out...that other storm you mentioned at hr 222 timeframe looked interesting to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 174 hours is the most unbelievable panel I have seen since either Feb of last winter or February 2006 and I say that with absolute certainty. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Earthlight, As always, fantastic analysis. Thank you. Man..the 12z CMC isn't too far off either. There's something to be said for the tremendous potential with this vortex sitting in southeast Canada. A few days ago, Isotherm and I were chatting about how the MECS potential would arrive should the vortex become more elongated west to east with the active Pacific Jet. Well, look what we have here...the entire vortex shifts more west to east (confluent flow to our north) in the first link below. There's the pacific jet energy over the Southwest states. By the second and third frame, you can see the phase occurring, all of this made possible by the tremendous Greenland Block which the Euro weeklies had pegged for (no pun intended) weeks. Interesting week coming along, I say get your sleep while you can.. http://www.meteo.psu...WF_12z/f120.gif http://www.meteo.psu...WF_12z/f144.gif http://www.meteo.psu...WF_12z/f168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 At what hour does the precipitation start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 At what hour does the precipitation start? bout hr 158- 160 or so, its in between hr 156 and 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Around midnight next Sunday morning. At what hour does the precipitation start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 hr 174 sub 976 coming ashore eastern li...hvy precip phl to nyc frz line goes right through nyc then just east of phl...850s off shore Tom, as always thanks for the updates. Amazing to see the rapid deepening that can occur with this type of robust cyclone development. I don't think this is the final solution--but it is certainly amazing to loop through the images both aloft and at the surface and see the amazing potential. Whenever there is a big polar vortex over southeast Canada that is elongated like that, within an active flow aloft, it's game on..especially with the type of blocking we have in place at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Is there any explanation as to what the gfs is doing right now? is there a similar upper level setup? or is it the med-long range suppression bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 By the way, I believe I saw this posted earlier..but anybody who pulls up the 168hr ECMWF verification from this current event, will probably begin loading up the snowblower with gasoline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Jma had this yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 At least we have the strong block and 50/50 in place unlike with this rainstorm that some believed could change into a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 here is the 12z ukie, looks like it would prob come up after hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Man..the 12z CMC isn't too far off either. There's something to be said for the tremendous potential with this vortex sitting in southeast Canada. A few days ago, Isotherm and I were chatting about how the MECS potential would arrive should the vortex become more elongated west to east with the active Pacific Jet. Well, look what we have here...the entire vortex shifts more west to east (confluent flow to our north) in the first link below. There's the pacific jet energy over the Southwest states. By the second and third frame, you can see the phase occurring, all of this made possible by the tremendous Greenland Block which the Euro weeklies had pegged for (no pun intended) weeks. Interesting week coming along, I say get your sleep while you can.. http://www.meteo.psu...WF_12z/f120.gif http://www.meteo.psu...WF_12z/f144.gif http://www.meteo.psu...WF_12z/f168.gif Yep, should be an interesting week ahead John. I'm trying to keep my expectations tempered but I'd say it's time to get a little excited based upon the teleconnectors we have in place...it's not like this is a fantasy solution with a terrible pattern. As Don Sutherland posted the other day, retrograding, historic blocks like the one progged almost always produce some kind of event underneath the block. Details will change with each run (surface) but as long as the key features are in place, the N Canadian block, the PV over sern Canada, which will help pump heights along the SE US coast, etc, we're good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Jma had this yesterday Your house is fringed by the euro Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Ji, You know this is going to happen because you just got finished saying this is the 4th worst winter you have ever seen. We better all get ready for a blizzard. Also, my neighbors have had a snowstorm when they have their Christmas party several years in a row now, and they are having their Christmas party next Saturday night. The big storm will commence next Saturday night based on all this. Jma had this yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Some residual support from the GFS ensembles for the second event. There are several other members that show a coastal solution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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