mattinpa Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 6z GFS has something coming up in the same timeframe - doesn't really get its act together, but we get light-mod snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 6z GFS has something coming up in the same timeframe - doesn't really get its act together, but we get light-mod snow. Check out hours 204 and 216 any one want to comment on that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The GEFS looks good for the most part, but we need a sharper ridge axis out west to get a truly explosive event, I'd think. The ridging looks a bit flat due to the trough in the Pacific Northwest area: I agree. The pattern next weekend and so looks more favorable for light or moderate overruning events than any huge coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Who cares what it shows pat 180 hours, thats beyond fantasy land, Every 2 days it seems like a new "treat" 240ish hours away. Its a joke! I'm beginning to have the belief that anything past the 84 hr time frame is good only to show patterns and potential. I just can't get excited over threats 10 days away. Too many times they don't pan out, or the end result is not the one I (we) had hoped for. When something good gets into the NAM time range, then I start to get interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Check out hours 204 and 216 any one want to comment on that ? Haven't seen the GGEM or Euro but based on the GFS at 500mb on the 6z run, whatever forms is purely driven by the Northern stream with little to no Southern energy involved. Essentially a piece of the PV is pinched off in PA due to the massive block in Central Canada. Based on this it would be hard to get a major coastal without some type of energy coming thru in the Southern jet and interacting. I suppose the baroclinic zone at the coast could support a coastal with the PV diving South, but not quite there yet. A step in the right direction? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 There's nothing like seeing the landscape covered by snow for thefirst time of the winter season. A 1-3 inch event right now would make me incredibly pleased. I remember back December 2007 the day before that cutter was going to move in we managed to receive a small batch of snow that dropped about an inch or an inch a half. Everything was white when I woke up that morning when I wasn't expecting anything. Granted it only lasted one day but that day was cold and white and that's all i need in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 There's nothing like seeing the landscape covered by snow for thefirst time of the winter season. A 1-3 inch event right now would make me incredibly pleased. I remember back December 2007 the day before that cutter was going to move in we managed to receive a small batch of snow that dropped about an inch or an inch a half. Everything was white when I woke up that morning when I wasn't expecting anything. Granted it only lasted one day but that day was cold and white and that's all i need in winter. Completely agree. Especially in December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 In 140 years of record keeping, Central Park has seen one inch or more of snowfall on Christmas Day 6 (six) times, generally well spaced over the 14 decades. So your assertion that "we could get an old fashioned white Christmas like we used to" is complete baloney, just like most of your other posts. haha,classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 In all fairness to him, when I think of a white Christmas it means having snow on the ground, not that it is necessarily snowing on Christmas day. How about we be a little nicer to each other here? Just a thought. haha,classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 12z gfs pretty much keeps us cold and dry through 162.....same old song and dance...shoves everything off the se coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 12z gfs pretty much keeps us cold and dry through 162.....same old song and dance...shoves everything off the se coast more interested in 12z euro at this range, and a suppressed GFS is a good GFS for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 God the GFS is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 God the GFS is ugly Yep our ground stays frozen the whole run...yet our first shot of light preciep is at 204......dry/cold times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 In all fairness to him, when I think of a white Christmas it means having snow on the ground, not that it is necessarily snowing on Christmas day. How about we be a little nicer to each other here? Just a thought. While falling snow is definitely a bonus on Christmas, like you, a white Christmas for me is one which features at least a 1-2 inch snowcover on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Well I use to have a white Christmas every year when I lived in the northern Czech Republic, but obviously the differences between here and there are like night and day. The elevation differences are in the thousands, but I think the last good white Christmas was 2002 I think, mainly because it was snowing on Christmas eve night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 this winter is starting to really suck. on eastern, i made a post saying that this was my 4th worst winter of all time already and that was back in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 While falling snow is definitely a bonus on Christmas, like you, a white Christmas for me is one which features at least a 1-2 inch snowcover on the ground. in this area snow accumulating snow falling on Christmas eve or Christmas day is a very rare event..let's see I'm 52 years old..ok..the only accumulating snow i remember in my life time(snow over an inch).. on Dec 24th was 1966..that's it!..Christmas day or night..Dec 25th 1969 at night,Dec 25th 1975,and Dec 25th 2002..How rare is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 in this area snow accumulating snow falling on Christmas eve or Christmas day is a very rare event..let's see I'm 52 years old..ok..the only accumulating snow i remember in my life time(snow over an inch).. on Dec 24th was 1966..that's it!..Christmas day or night..Dec 25th 1969 at night,Dec 25th 1975,and Dec 25th 2002..How rare is that? Yup--- only once in my lifetime-- Dec 25, 2002. I mean, you could probably pick any single day and chances of seeing an inch or more snow falling on that specific date wouldnt be too great. I doubt any single day has had 1" or more of snow accumulating even 50% of the time. This isnt Lake Effect country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Why couldn't we have the great lakes right next to us? Then we'd be seeing 40+ inches of snow even in a terrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yup--- only once in my lifetime-- Dec 25, 2002. I mean, you could probably pick any single day and chances of seeing an inch or more snow falling on that specific date wouldnt be too great. I doubt any single day has had 1" or more of snow accumulating even 50% of the time. This isnt Lake Effect country. funny in my 52 years usually we get something a few days after in the 27-29 range..,1968,1984,1987,1990,1993,1997, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 in this area snow accumulating snow falling on Christmas eve or Christmas day is a very rare event..let's see I'm 52 years old..ok..the only accumulating snow i remember in my life time(snow over an inch).. on Dec 24th was 1966..that's it!..Christmas day or night..Dec 25th 1969 at night,Dec 25th 1975,and Dec 25th 2002..How rare is that? Yup--- only once in my lifetime-- Dec 25, 2002. I think I've seen accumulating snow fall on Dec 24/25 perhaps three or four times in my 42 years on this earth. 2002 for sure and then I think two times back in the 70's. Even the 1 inch+ ON THE GROUND is rare around these parts and I can certainly remember many more brown Christmas's than white ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Why couldn't we have the great lakes right next to us? Then we'd be seeing 40+ inches of snow even in a terrible winter. could move to Buffalo..I starting to consider it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Hour 168 on the 12z gfs ensemble mean the storm is there. Hopefully we can get it closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 could move to Buffalo..I starting to consider it I had this crazy thought when I saw OES occurring like 10 miles off the south shore last week. If Long Island was about 50 miles south of where it is now-- yes we would suffer a bit in coastals, but we might make up for it in sound effect snow having a longer trajectory over water. Think of how often we ger N/NW winds here in the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 12 ggem hr 108 still shows life with the first event brings it further north and east hr 144, im not sure if this is storm number 2 or not but this is just a miss off the coast. After the clupper goes by it leaves the ridge on the east coast instead of crushing it allowing something else to come up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Why couldn't we have the great lakes right next to us? Then we'd be seeing 40+ inches of snow even in a terrible winter. from what I hear, LES bands can be rather fickle. Like New Brunswick gets 20" and TTN and NYC get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 With LES, you can literally drive less than 5 miles from one place to another and go from 3 feet of snow to 3 inches of snow, that's pretty amazing if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 through hr 78, first possible weak storm is gathering. Compared to 0z, vortex is a little further north and weaker. There also is a new vortex that has popped up in se canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 through hr 102, vortex over northeast is a good bit further north. 0z had it just off mass coast, 12z is now over central maine. The overal flow is flatter though cause of the stronger vortex over the plains....2nd storm is deeper in the 4 corner region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 good ice storm still ontap for northern nc and southern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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