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Potential winter threats


tombo82685

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The GEFS looks good for the most part, but we need a sharper ridge axis out west to get a truly explosive event, I'd think. The ridging looks a bit flat due to the trough in the Pacific Northwest area:

I agree. The pattern next weekend and so looks more favorable for light or moderate overruning events than any huge coastals.

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Who cares what it shows pat 180 hours, thats beyond fantasy land, Every 2 days it seems like a new "treat" 240ish hours away. Its a joke!

I'm beginning to have the belief that anything past the 84 hr time frame is good only to show patterns and potential. I just can't get excited over threats 10 days away. Too many times they don't pan out, or the end result is not the one I (we) had hoped for. When something good gets into the NAM time range, then I start to get interested.

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Check out hours 204 and 216 any one want to comment on that ?

Haven't seen the GGEM or Euro but based on the GFS at 500mb on the 6z run, whatever forms is purely driven by the Northern stream with little to no Southern energy involved. Essentially a piece of the PV is pinched off in PA due to the massive block in Central Canada. Based on this it would be hard to get a major coastal without some type of energy coming thru in the Southern jet and interacting. I suppose the baroclinic zone at the coast could support a coastal with the PV diving South, but not quite there yet. A step in the right direction? Yes.

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There's nothing like seeing the landscape covered by snow for thefirst time of the winter season. A 1-3 inch event right now would make me incredibly pleased.

I remember back December 2007 the day before that cutter was going to move in we managed to receive a small batch of snow that dropped about an inch or an inch a half. Everything was white when I woke up that morning when I wasn't expecting anything.

Granted it only lasted one day but that day was cold and white and that's all i need in winter.

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There's nothing like seeing the landscape covered by snow for thefirst time of the winter season. A 1-3 inch event right now would make me incredibly pleased.

I remember back December 2007 the day before that cutter was going to move in we managed to receive a small batch of snow that dropped about an inch or an inch a half. Everything was white when I woke up that morning when I wasn't expecting anything.

Granted it only lasted one day but that day was cold and white and that's all i need in winter.

Completely agree. Especially in December...

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In 140 years of record keeping, Central Park has seen one inch or more of snowfall on Christmas Day 6 (six) times, generally well spaced over the 14 decades.  

So your assertion that "we could get an old fashioned white Christmas like we used to" is complete baloney, just like most of your other posts.

haha,classic.

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In all fairness to him, when I think of a white Christmas it means having snow on the ground, not that it is necessarily snowing on Christmas day. How about we be a little nicer to each other here? Just a thought.

While falling snow is definitely a bonus on Christmas, like you, a white Christmas for me is one which features at least a 1-2 inch snowcover on the ground.

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Well I use to have a white Christmas every year when I lived in the northern Czech Republic, but obviously the differences between here and there are like night and day. The elevation differences are in the thousands, but I think the last good white Christmas was 2002 I think, mainly because it was snowing on Christmas eve night.

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While falling snow is definitely a bonus on Christmas, like you, a white Christmas for me is one which features at least a 1-2 inch snowcover on the ground.

in this area snow accumulating snow falling on Christmas eve or Christmas day is a very rare event..let's see I'm 52 years old..ok..the only accumulating snow i remember in my life time(snow over an inch).. on Dec 24th was 1966..that's it!..Christmas day or night..Dec 25th 1969 at night,Dec 25th 1975,and Dec 25th 2002..How rare is that?

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in this area snow accumulating snow falling on Christmas eve or Christmas day is a very rare event..let's see I'm 52 years old..ok..the only accumulating snow i remember in my life time(snow over an inch).. on Dec 24th was 1966..that's it!..Christmas day or night..Dec 25th 1969 at night,Dec 25th 1975,and Dec 25th 2002..How rare is that?

Yup--- only once in my lifetime-- Dec 25, 2002.

I mean, you could probably pick any single day and chances of seeing an inch or more snow falling on that specific date wouldnt be too great.  I doubt any single day has had 1" or more of snow accumulating even 50% of the time.

This isnt Lake Effect country.

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Yup--- only once in my lifetime-- Dec 25, 2002.

I mean, you could probably pick any single day and chances of seeing an inch or more snow falling on that specific date wouldnt be too great. I doubt any single day has had 1" or more of snow accumulating even 50% of the time.

This isnt Lake Effect country.

funny in my 52 years usually we get something a few days after in the 27-29 range..,1968,1984,1987,1990,1993,1997,

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in this area snow accumulating snow falling on Christmas eve or Christmas day is a very rare event..let's see I'm 52 years old..ok..the only accumulating snow i remember in my life time(snow over an inch).. on Dec 24th was 1966..that's it!..Christmas day or night..Dec 25th 1969 at night,Dec 25th 1975,and Dec 25th 2002..How rare is that?

Yup--- only once in my lifetime-- Dec 25, 2002.

I think I've seen accumulating snow fall on Dec 24/25 perhaps three or four times in my 42 years on this earth. 2002 for sure and then I think two times back in the 70's. Even the 1 inch+ ON THE GROUND is rare around these parts and I can certainly remember many more brown Christmas's than white ones.

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could move to Buffalo..I starting to consider it

I had this crazy thought when I saw OES occurring like 10 miles off the south shore last week.  If Long Island was about 50 miles south of where it is now-- yes we would suffer a bit in coastals, but we might make up for it in sound effect snow having a longer trajectory over water.  Think of how often we ger N/NW winds here in the winter!

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