Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yes, you can see that pretty well on the 500mb chart. There clearly is a phase at 168 in pretty much the same spot as the 12z run, but with the surface reflection way off shore this time instead. something is going to produce in this pattern, atleast i hope...Dt posted something in the gen forums i believe that at hr 168 (storm2) there should be a surface reflection with a closed low over the mid atl, yet it didnt have anything which you probably saw till it was way ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 yeah i mean it is 240 hrs out...its just good to see threats...i would not give up hope for the late week event also.... yea i wouldnt either. The vortex was stronger but it was further north, which helped bring the precip further north than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 here is the slp at h85 and h5 map for the us off the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This is really just sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yes, you can see that pretty well on the 500mb chart. There clearly is a phase at 168 in pretty much the same spot as the 12z run, but with the surface reflection way off shore this time instead. Can this relate to the gfs in any way? i know the gfs at 500mb looked somewhat similar and it has the storm ots like this euro run..Just wondering if there is any type of agreement there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Its pretty much a miller A........its def looks like it would come up the coast....but the blocking is def not as strong....so track verbatiam could be anything for i-95.... blocking may wane with time, a common thing models do out that far. As we get closer, it may be just as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 More of a Rex Block on that map, John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 that baby is definitely coming up the coast...a good ole traditional miller A...now lets cross our fingers lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This is really just sick but can the -nao be that good a month or 2 from now. I think we need to make hay now while it still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 If this were a weaker Nina, neutral or an El Nino season with that type of block shown, we'd be in snow heaven. I'm surprised no one's mentioned this but isn't all of this warming in the Arctic and Greenland causing adverse effects for them. This can't be too good for those who are for global warming, there must be a lot of melting going on up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Hold up, the 12z euro had a big hit well before 240 hours, but now its a few days delayed? Granted with such a huge block shown on the ensembles, somethings gotta give even if we don't have a neutral or positive PNA. If this were a weaker Nina, neutral or an El Nino season with that type of block shown, we'd be in snow heaven. I'm surprised no one's mentioned this but isn't all of this warming in the Arctic and Greenland causing adverse effects for them. This can't be too good for those who are for global warming, there must be a lot of melting going on up there. 240 hr storm is a completely different storm... The other one has the same upper level setup as 12z but its ots.. Read the last 10 posts or so to get a better understanding.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 If this were a weaker Nina, neutral or an El Nino season with that type of block shown, we'd be in snow heaven. I'm surprised no one's mentioned this but isn't all of this warming in the Arctic and Greenland causing adverse effects for them. This can't be too good for those who are for global warming, there must be a lot of melting going on up there. not really sure how to respond to the global warming comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 here are the indiv ens members for the first events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Narssarssuaq, Greenland is currently at 45oF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Even if that 'first event' came up the coast, it would be nothing more than a 'cheap thrill'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Even if that 'first event' came up the coast, it would be nothing more than a 'cheap thrill'. agreed....2nd and 3rd are where its at. I actually lost interest in the first because I think its obvious blocking is too strong for us which might not necessarily be a bad thing because it sets up our next threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Even if that 'first event' came up the coast, it would be nothing more than a 'cheap thrill'. i think majority of us would take a cheap thrill of 1-3 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 i think majority of us would take a cheap thrill of 1-3 at this point. Waste of time as far as I am concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 i think majority of us would take a cheap thrill of 1-3 at this point. not me. no way. here in jersey, that kind of mini snow event causes many accidents on the roads. it's the minor events that are the worst. Stupid people can't drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 not me. no way. here in jersey, that kind of mini snow event causes many accidents on the roads. it's the minor events that are the worst. Stupid people can't drive. lol that is very true, the whole mindset is completely different, because its only 1-3 and not 6-12...well say there wasn't any cars would you take a 1-3 at this point, lets put it like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 guys...ensemble means has the 168hr storm...huge development imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The means actually support a storm off the coast between 168 and 192 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 guys...ensemble means has the 168hr storm...huge development imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 lol that is very true, the whole mindset is completely different, because its only 1-3 and not 6-12...well say there wasn't any cars would you take a 1-3 at this point, lets put it like that? hey snow is cool. I like the KU storms mainly. But if there were no cars? Yea, i guess 1-3 would be fine. Especially as we get close to Christmas. But, def would rather have a foot plus so it sticks around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 guys...ensemble means has the 168hr storm...huge development imo The GEFS looks good for the most part, but we need a sharper ridge axis out west to get a truly explosive event, I'd think. The ridging looks a bit flat due to the trough in the Pacific Northwest area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 That actually wasn't a bad run, much better than I expected, at least there are a few threats out there unlike the gfs which is pretty quiet. Oh how I wish we could get an old fashioned white Christmas like we used to. Move to Alaska and don't take your computer with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 If this were a weaker Nina, neutral or an El Nino season with that type of block shown, we'd be in snow heaven. I'm surprised no one's mentioned this but isn't all of this warming in the Arctic and Greenland causing adverse effects for them. This can't be too good for those who are for global warming, there must be a lot of melting going on up there. Agree that we'd be doing very well in a neutral ENSO or weak Niño/Niña...but that's not the reality right now unfortunately. There has been a lot of warming in the Arctic in the last 30 years but it isn't melting right now...it's mid-December dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Who cares what it shows pat 180 hours, thats beyond fantasy land, Every 2 days it seems like a new "treat" 240ish hours away. Its a joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_192l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_204l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_216l.gif 6Z GFS though out to sea, finally shows the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 In 140 years of record keeping, Central Park has seen one inch or more of snowfall on Christmas Day 6 (six) times, generally well spaced over the 14 decades. So your assertion that "we could get an old fashioned white Christmas like we used to" is complete baloney, just like most of your other posts. That's telling em William ! Chances of a while christmas are usually < 25% along I 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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