tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I guess this is a good time to start looking at the next potential for this area which is 6-7 days away. 18z gfs and the 12z euro are showing a possible frozen/freezing event affecting the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z gfs now has a pretty bad ice storm for va and brings snow into dc and balt area. On this run, the northern extent of the moisture is to the m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z gfs now has a pretty bad ice storm for va and brings snow into dc and balt area. On this run, the northern extent of the moisture is to the m/d line Yeah brings a warnning level snowfall to DC....then it gets sheared out......Love how we have a threat on all the models...7 days out.....thats all we want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Came in juicier and further north. I dont know if it bombs it off the coast like the euro yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Its really amazing watching like the bulk of the precip just ride that blue line and hardly any passes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 also of note is that while 850's warm after our cold outbreak temps don't really warm much and we don't get any more than a couple degrees above freezing on the WARMEST days for the next 8-9 days according to the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It seems interesting enough. It looks like a "Thread the Needle" type of event for those north of the 850 0c line. Where is the high pressure in SE Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 also of note is that while 850's warm after our cold outbreak temps don't really warm much and we don't get any more than a couple degrees above freezing on the WARMEST days for the next 8-9 days according to the 18z gfs Yep we pretty much stay below the 0c line out to 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 the gfs also slides out another piece of energy at hr 192.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It seems interesting enough. It looks like a "Thread the Needle" type of event for those north of the 850 0c line. Where is the high pressure in SE Canada? freezing line is south of the 850 line=ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 freezing line is south of the 850 line=ice Good point but I hope this event is predominantly snow for most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Good point but I hope this event is predominantly snow for most locations. I'd think that as long as our huge west based -NAO stays put with out nice 50/50 in place there isn't much room for a northerly trend (if everything is modeled correctly which is a big if) but I doubt we'll see non-frozen precip if the storm ends up impacting us there is no way any LP is driving into that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Honestly, I'd rather not see any storm north of DC affecting our area right now.....let's leave them way to the south until we get inside 120 hours or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Came in juicier and further north. I dont know if it bombs it off the coast like the euro yet.. huh? why did i not hear about this? (i have no idea what that smiley is but it's new!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 No thank you if it is an ice storm. That being said I think the northern MA is in a good spot right now for the eventual north trend and hopefully we're above the 850 0 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 this is skew t for phl at h144 when the storm is over dc, i have never seen this before, well this dramatic. Thats showing a very dry layer at 800-900mb correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 This will be our storm, we're going to get slammed with 6-12" of snow, I can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 This will be our storm, we're going to get slammed with 6-12" of snow, I can't wait. lol i love the enthusiasm. One thing is for sure the pattern doesn't break down into the medium range. December still has 3 wks left to provide some snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 gfs has 3-4 inches in central va with the 18z track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 huh? why did i not hear about this? (i have no idea what that smiley is but it's new!) haha, well i forgot to add the euro bombs it well ots.. right now, it could just be the gfs SE bias like the last storm in the long range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 haha, well i forgot to add the euro bombs it well ots.. right now, it could just be the gfs SE bias like the last storm in the long range., party pooper i feel like we're never going to get to see these new-and-enhanced crayola maps from tombo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 party pooper i feel like we're never going to get to see these new-and-enhanced crayola maps from tombo.... if the euro still advertises this at 0z tonight, you will see the new and improved maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Meh...looks minor right now. Not really enthused...the gfs suppresses it to the south and even there the qpf is modest and a lot like last Saturday's event. IMO, really isn't a "threat" but a minor event FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Meh...looks minor right now. Not really enthused...the gfs suppresses it to the south and even there the qpf is modest and a lot like last Saturday's event. IMO, really isn't a "threat" but a minor event FTW! so...much...mixed...emotion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 so...much...mixed...emotion... It's something to track...I'll give folks that but I don't see SECS from it. Decent is possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It's something to track...I'll give folks that but I don't see SECS from it. Decent is possible though. eh if we get enough ice... or high ratios. whichever, lol. both are in play at this point. and the idea that its a weekday makes it better too. but otherwise yeah it seems like nothing too major. im fine with that though. a nice 2-4" or 3-6" would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'd take a few inches at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 this is pretty interesting for dc at that timeframe when that storm is coming, bufkit gives them a 17-1 to 18-1 snow ratio. Gives them 2.5 inches on .16 qpf, surface temps in the mid 20s, so the cold air is present. http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kdca.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 this is pretty interesting for dc at that timeframe when that storm is coming, bufkit gives them a 17-1 to 18-1 snow ratio. Gives them 2.5 inches on .16 qpf, surface temps in the mid 20s, so the cold air is present. http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kdca.dat how are these ratios calculated though? if the 850s are warmer, is that taken into account? or are the 850s only warm from VA south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 how are these ratios calculated though? if the 850s are warmer, is that taken into account? or are the 850s only warm from VA south? i don't know this for a fact, so if this is wrong please correct me, but i believe the ratio is determined by the temperature at which the snow is being manufactured at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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