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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - IV


Baroclinic Zone

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The power outages would be incredible if this verified...

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS    LAT=  42.37 LON=  -71.03 ELE=    20

                                           12Z OCT29
                2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 12Z 29-OCT   2.2    -4.9    1024      65      55    0.00     557     538    
SAT 18Z 29-OCT   7.2    -5.0    1019      63      99    0.02     555     540    
SUN 00Z 30-OCT   2.8    -5.2    1013      97     100    0.70     551     540    
SUN 06Z 30-OCT   1.2    -5.3    1008      96      99    0.72     541     535    
SUN 12Z 30-OCT   1.0    -6.6    1011      87      88    0.38     539     530    

Seems like there's quite the discrepancy between that and the current forecast. Granted it can't be easy to forecast an out of season event like this.

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It's interesting that the Euro continues to target a faster changeover just back from teh water in SE MA. You can already see the influences of being back from the water just a bit in Falmouth at Otis where it's 41.

Everywhere else it's warmer. Just those few miles of land is enough to cool it off with these precip rates.

It just mixed with snow/slush here at 42 degrees.

FALMOUTH LGT RAIN 41 39 93 NE14

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3.5" at 2:20 at 600 ft. elevation 3 mi. S of I-84 in Ridgefield.

0.4" in the last 13 min... :o

Bands continuing to pivot from south to north and we aren't even on the backside yet when things will really rip.

I think 12" is a lock, and 16" might be attainable depending on where the deformation band sets up (and I-84 is not a bad guess for that).

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http://www.earthcam....rk/timessquare/

Cam 4 is the best, select iat the bottom.

Dynamic cooling did its best here. we got down and level at 42.9. So we chopped 13 degrees off sea temps 200 feet away. Bodes well if we get a wind change later, but IMO it looks like it's going to take until 3z or later in the CP.

Just looked at teh Euro...230z to 3z is when I think Boston itself would flip to accumulating snow.

Any idea on a place like Dighton,MA. Not farmilar with se mass. My parents have to drive from there back home near ORH in a few hours. :yikes:

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Any idea on a place like Dighton,MA. Not farmilar with se mass. My parents have to drive from there back home near ORH in a few hours. :yikes:

Dighton is a tough call. It looks liek there will be a burst that "could" change them to snow in the next few hours. Then maybe a quick lull where it changes back over before the wrap around where they get 3-6 or 4-8"

same goes for Easton too.

I think the final change to snow comes between 830 and 1030 in that area.

We are trying to mix/change here right now, so I don't think areas inland will have much trouble once the wind trajectory changes. My temp diving into the 40ish range now. INCREDIBLE

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Meso banding beginning to move in here from the S. One main band will probably set up shop somewhere while other smaller bands merge into it. Wherever this occurs, look out. Snowman.gif

Visibility now below a mile and dropping fast. Already a dusting on grassy surfaces.

Mitch--what's your take for the northern climes with the eastern shifts? I assume the boon to the southern areas is at the expense of us up here.

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