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October 29/30 Snowstorm OBS thread


ChrisM

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Longitude FTL. Ocean. Just inland to the SW and NW of BOS got a good 4-7". Bit of a dryslot prevent the NW suburbs of BOS to receive more, but once you got about 35+ miles NW of BOS there was near and over a foot.

 

 

Yeah that was a rough winter for you, but you clearly made up for it the following year. Hopefully your new location brings you lots of snow!

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I posted this on Twitter earlier... but looking back at the 3 big CT storms in the last 2 years... this one and February were probably the most "anomalous"

 

In terms of impact the return time on a Sandy or Irene is 1 in 20 years or so (though Sandy's raw surge values make it a bit more rare in the western Sound where surge was 10 feet but at low tide).

 

The return time for the Feb blizzard and October snowstorm is probably on the order of 1 in 50-100 years. 

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I posted this on Twitter earlier... but looking back at the 3 big CT storms in the last 2 years... this one and February were probably the most "anomalous"

 

In terms of impact the return time on a Sandy or Irene is 1 in 20 years or so (though Sandy's raw surge values make it a bit more rare in the western Sound where surge was 10 feet but at low tide).

 

The return time for the Feb blizzard and October snowstorm is probably on the order of 1 in 50-100 years. 

 

Wasn't the October snowstorm even rarer than that?  I though it was like a 1 in 200 year type event...

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Wasn't the October snowstorm even rarer than that?  I though it was like a 1 in 200 year type event...

 

I'm not sure. Considering all the damage in the valley near Albany on 10/4/87 I have a hard time buying a storm 3 1/2 weeks later in the calendar in Hartford is that kind of rare. I could be wrong though.

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I'm not sure. Considering all the damage in the valley near Albany on 10/4/87 I have a hard time buying a storm 3 1/2 weeks later in the calendar in Hartford is that kind of rare. I could be wrong though.

 

When you start talking about a once in multi-hundred year event we don't have a lot of judge it on... it can be just a fluke that it hasn't happened before if you get what I'm saying. 

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I suppose but given the latitude and elevation difference and closeness to the ocean it's tough to compare. But it is probably the only thing close.

There was double digit snowfall near DXR from that storm too in the hills. Given that it was 3 1/2 weeks prior on the calendar that's pretty darn impressive.

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When you start talking about a once in multi-hundred year event we don't have a lot of judge it on... it can be just a fluke that it hasn't happened before if you get what I'm saying. 

 

Yeah, true... wasn't there an October snowstorm in the early 1800s that we have limited info on? 

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There was double digit snowfall near DXR from that storm too in the hills. Given that it was 3 1/2 weeks prior on the calendar that's pretty darn impressive.

The May 9-10 , 1977 snowfall of like 7.5 inches in Providence and greater boston area has always seemed Incredibly impressive/Most anomalous to me. It is the ONLY recording of snow in the 20'th century in May at Providence and it was warning criteria ten days into month!!

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There was double digit snowfall near DXR from that storm too in the hills. Given that it was 3 1/2 weeks prior on the calendar that's pretty darn impressive.

 

I think that's a fair assessment.  I was around for that '87 one and we were mixed here for a time.  If the track had been different, it would have been a whole different story.

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I think that's a fair assessment. I was around for that '87 one and we were mixed here for a time. If the track had been different, it would have been a whole different story.

Funny how longitude played such a role. Very little east of 91 while places above 400 or 500 ft got smoked west of i91

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The October event is at least 1 in 100 year IMHO and think its probably quite a bit rarer than that...the scale it covered dwarfs the heavier snowfalls in spot locations from previous events like 10/4/87 or 10/10/79 or even any early November event. In fact, we don't even have a large widespread 10"+ event covering the same area that Oct 2011 did until late November in the past for earliest widespread 10"+...which would be November 25, 1971 and then November 26-27, 1898.

 

This wasn't just a 6-8" snowstorm for a stripe in the CCB...this was a widespread blockbuster snowstorm with a huge area getting double digit snowfall in October right down to the valley floor. So while a spot in the Taconics might have a return period more frequent than 1 in 100 for 10" of snow...that is not what necessarily what we should be measuring when we look at the October 2011 storm. Its undiscriminating coverage of heavy snow is truly remarkable for something that early in the season. Again, think of how we basically have to fast forward the calendar a month to get anything similar on record.

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The October event is at least 1 in 100 year IMHO and think its probably quite a bit rarer than that...the scale it covered dwarfs the heavier snowfalls in spot locations from previous events like 10/4/87 or 10/10/79 or even any early November event. In fact, we don't even have a large widespread 10"+ event covering the same area that Oct 2011 did until late November in the past for earliest widespread 10"+...which would be November 25, 1971 and then November 26-27, 1898.

 

This wasn't just a 6-8" snowstorm for a stripe in the CCB...this was a widespread blockbuster snowstorm with a huge area getting double digit snowfall in October right down to the valley floor. So while a spot in the Taconics might have a return period more frequent than 1 in 100 for 10" of snow...that is not what necessarily what we should be measuring when we look at the October 2011 storm. Its undiscriminating coverage of heavy snow is truly remarkable for something that early in the season. Again, think of how we basically have to fast forward the calendar a month to get anything similar on record.

I love it when you talk dirty like this.

 

...Although I think we ended up with just under 5 or 6".  The downed trees literally began just north of us by about 2-4 miles where the totals were higher.

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The October event is at least 1 in 100 year IMHO and think its probably quite a bit rarer than that...the scale it covered dwarfs the heavier snowfalls in spot locations from previous events like 10/4/87 or 10/10/79 or even any early November event. In fact, we don't even have a large widespread 10"+ event covering the same area that Oct 2011 did until late November in the past for earliest widespread 10"+...which would be November 25, 1971 and then November 26-27, 1898.

 

This wasn't just a 6-8" snowstorm for a stripe in the CCB...this was a widespread blockbuster snowstorm with a huge area getting double digit snowfall in October right down to the valley floor. So while a spot in the Taconics might have a return period more frequent than 1 in 100 for 10" of snow...that is not what necessarily what we should be measuring when we look at the October 2011 storm. Its undiscriminating coverage of heavy snow is truly remarkable for something that early in the season. Again, think of how we basically have to fast forward the calendar a month to get anything similar on record.

The extent was the real anomaly - tree-breaking snow at relatively low elevation in S. PA and extending into NNE is probably well outside anything ever recorded for the Northeast.

MBY managed to accumulate less snow (4.5") than about 98% of Maine locations outside of Downeast and the far north, and less than the 6.3" event in Oct 2000. It's a rare snowstorm - in any season - when both PWM (5.2") and Farmington (8.0", their greatest Oct snow) measure more than at my place. Very micro-site specific: 25 miles to my SW (and 300' higher), Hartford reported 13.8".

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