October 29/30 Snowstorm OBS thread

[HoarfrostHubb]

How does one postpone Halloween?

Sorry, more specifically, door to door trick or treating...

We have big snowbanks, our town, being rural, has few streetlights (none in my neighborhood), many folks still w/o power

They decided to move the trick or treating to Saturday.

We will probably have a tornado or something on that day

[amarshall]

Why did Southern Plymouth, Bourne and Sandwich on the water get snow but Quincy did not.

My link

[CoastalWx]

I normally don't question stuff...but this was a pretty bad bust. I'd like to know why they went so low.

http://www.necn.com/10/28/11/bMatt-Noyes-bAccumulation-wind-maps-for-/landing_weathernewengland.html?blockID=584622&feedID=6240

[CoastalWx]

Why did Southern Plymouth, Bourne and Sandwich on the water get snow but Quincy did not.

My link

They might have gotten into that last minute band while having nw winds.

[Typhoon Tip]

Why did Southern Plymouth, Bourne and Sandwich on the water get snow but Quincy did not.

My link

Because the storm didn't like you.

I got a text in the midst of it "...except for Quincy; no snow for you, ONE YEAR"

[Typhoon Tip]

I normally don't question stuff...but this was a pretty bad bust. I'd like to know why they went so low.

http://www.necn.com/...622&feedID=6240

I dunno - maybe good looks, good grades, good verbal/acting skills only make you a talented Meteorologist on paper.

[amarshall]

Because the storm didn't like you.

I got a text in the midst of it "...except for Quincy; no snow for you, ONE YEAR"

[Typhoon Tip]

Lol!!!! 79-80 redux baby

The middle and extended range Euro is a better fit for the GFS ensemble-derived teleconnector spread than the GFS' own operational run is... That signal is warm. How so to be determined, but strong SE ridge signature and NW placed mean polar boundary offers a few opportunities for WSW deep layer flow amid somewhat warm anomalous heights/thicknesses. Could actually be a 70F day in there over the next 7 to 10 days.

Frankly, I found the Indian Summer declaration 2 weekends ago to be false, because the formal definition of that occurrence is following a series of hard freezes and or a snow fall. It can't go from 60 to 80 and have that be an Indian Summer then. But ... just another example of American culture losing its ability for reason.. There's an article in Science News entitled, "The Unscientific American", sub-titled America's growing inability to think with reason.

I digress ... It's been an interesting mid to late summer and autumn so far (snow notwithstanding...), where regardless of pattern there has been a tendency to verify troughs Either way, this next 10 days might be another test to see if a trough suddenly asserts its self amid an otherwise warm pattern.

[CoastalWx]

I dunno - maybe good looks, good grades, good verbal/acting skills only make you a talented Meteorologist on paper.

Anomalous set ups make for anomalous results. This isn't even a Monday morning QB type thing either. Eventually, you have to put away all the thoughts about if it can happen..all the little facts about co-ops not having data suggesting everything like this..and just go with what virtually every single piece of data is telling you. I have no problem with the lower elevations near the coast. That was almost a given that they would receive substantially less. But in the higher elevations to the west? Wow.

Also, these little myths about the ground being "too warm" have finally been laid to rest I think. First off, it is late October. The sun angle is early Feb. Insolation is rather weak for all intents and purposes. It means more in April when insolation is strong, but means very little imo during late October. Fact 2, the ground was already rather cool in many areas, thanks to snow that fell two days earlier. Also, the top few inches soaked in a lot of 36F rain. That's a pretty cold ground already right there. Now flash over to a 33f high water content snow that cannot melt quick...and there is the recipe for plowing about 2 hrs after the onset of snow.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Anomalous set ups make for anomalous results. This isn't even a Monday morning QB type thing either. Eventually, you have to put away all the thoughts about if it can happen..all the little facts about co-ops not having data suggesting everything like this..and just go with what virtually every single piece of data is telling you. I have no problem with the lower elevations near the coast. That was almost a given that they would receive substantially less. But in the higher elevations to the west? Wow.

Also, these little myths about the ground being "too warm" have finally been laid to rest I think. First off, it is late October. The sun angle is early Feb. Insolation is rather weak for all intents and purposes. It means more in April when insolation is strong, but means very little imo during late October. Fact 2, the ground was already rather cool in many areas, thanks to snow that fell two days earlier. Also, the top few inches soaked in a lot of 36F rain. That's a pretty cold ground already right there. Now flash over to a 33f high water content snow that cannot melt quick...and there is the recipe for plowing about 2 hrs after the onset of snow.

i think warm ground issue really only shows itself when you have intermittent precip rates or just flat out light precip. you could see that for some of our posters who were having some trouble accumulating for a while when their neighbors to the wnw were cranking. but if it's coming down at a good clip, it'll accumulate...regardless of surface too.

[Ginx snewx]

Anomalous set ups make for anomalous results. This isn't even a Monday morning QB type thing either. Eventually, you have to put away all the thoughts about if it can happen..all the little facts about co-ops not having data suggesting everything like this..and just go with what virtually every single piece of data is telling you. I have no problem with the lower elevations near the coast. That was almost a given that they would receive substantially less. But in the higher elevations to the west? Wow.

Also, these little myths about the ground being "too warm" have finally been laid to rest I think. First off, it is late October. The sun angle is early Feb. Insolation is rather weak for all intents and purposes. It means more in April when insolation is strong, but means very little imo during late October. Fact 2, the ground was already rather cool in many areas, thanks to snow that fell two days earlier. Also, the top few inches soaked in a lot of 36F rain. That's a pretty cold ground already right there. Now flash over to a 33f high water content snow that cannot melt quick...and there is the recipe for plowing about 2 hrs after the onset of snow.

Oh like this from OKX

1. THIS IS A HIGHLY

ANOMALOUS EVENT WHERE SIGNIFICANT LATE OCTOBER SNOW HAS NEVER BEEN

OBSERVED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN PER THE 1ST ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS.

EVEN INLAND...SCANS OF THE COOP DATA SHOWS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS

ALMOST UNHEARD OF. 2. MOST PCPN IS IN THE AFTN AND SOLAR RADIATION

WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS. 3.

LASTLY...I COULD NOT FIND SUPPORT OF SFC TEMPS BEING BELOW FREEZING

IN ANY OF THE PROFILES I EXAMINED. THUS...IN COLLABORATION WITH HPC

WINTER WEATHER DESK AND SURROUNDING WFO`S...WE HAVE LIMITED SNOW

ACCUMULATION TO HIGHER INLAND ELEVATION AND ONLY ALLOWED FOR SLUSHY

TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE COAST - MOST OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AND

8 PM.

AS IT STANDS NOW...ONLY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED AT

ELEVATIONS ABOVE AT LEAST 500` IF NOT 1000` SAT AFTN. ONCE THE SUN

SETS THOUGH...ACCUMULATION IN THE EVENING IS LIKELY FOR THE INLAND

ROADWAYS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. NO ROADWAY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED

FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND NYC.

IMPACT TO TREES IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AS DECIDUOUS TREES MAY EASILY SHED

REMAINING LEAVES. THUS THE WEIGHT ON TREES MAY NOT BE AS BIG A

PROBLEMS AS ONE MIGHT SPECULATE AS IT`S PAST PEAK COLOR FOR INLAND

AREAS. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR IMPACT

[CoastalWx]

i think warm ground issue really only shows itself when you have intermittent precip rates or just flat out light precip. you could see that for some of our posters who were having some trouble accumulating for a while when their neighbors to the wnw were cranking. but if it's coming down at a good clip, it'll accumulate...regardless of surface too.

Yeah if it's just light intermittent stuff it will have some trouble, but even stuff that is like 3/4sm to 1sm will stick. I was surprised driving up 93 the other day in Medford. As soon as it switched to all snow (not even heavy at all), it stuck pretty quickly.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah if it's just light intermittent stuff it will have some trouble, but even stuff that is like 3/4sm to 1sm will stick. I was surprised driving up 93 the other day in Medford. As soon as it switched to all snow (not even heavy at all), it stuck pretty quickly.

what was amazing was the thursday day time snow, it stuck immediately at even a light rate.

[CoastalWx]

Oh like this from OKX

1. THIS IS A HIGHLY

ANOMALOUS EVENT WHERE SIGNIFICANT LATE OCTOBER SNOW HAS NEVER BEEN

OBSERVED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN PER THE 1ST ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS.

EVEN INLAND...SCANS OF THE COOP DATA SHOWS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS

ALMOST UNHEARD OF. 2. MOST PCPN IS IN THE AFTN AND SOLAR RADIATION

WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS. 3.

LASTLY...I COULD NOT FIND SUPPORT OF SFC TEMPS BEING BELOW FREEZING

IN ANY OF THE PROFILES I EXAMINED. THUS...IN COLLABORATION WITH HPC

WINTER WEATHER DESK AND SURROUNDING WFO`S...WE HAVE LIMITED SNOW

ACCUMULATION TO HIGHER INLAND ELEVATION AND ONLY ALLOWED FOR SLUSHY

TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE COAST - MOST OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AND

8 PM.

AS IT STANDS NOW...ONLY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED AT

ELEVATIONS ABOVE AT LEAST 500` IF NOT 1000` SAT AFTN. ONCE THE SUN

SETS THOUGH...ACCUMULATION IN THE EVENING IS LIKELY FOR THE INLAND

ROADWAYS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. NO ROADWAY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED

FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND NYC.

IMPACT TO TREES IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AS DECIDUOUS TREES MAY EASILY SHED

REMAINING LEAVES. THUS THE WEIGHT ON TREES MAY NOT BE AS BIG A

PROBLEMS AS ONE MIGHT SPECULATE AS IT`S PAST PEAK COLOR FOR INLAND

AREAS. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR IMPACT

Well when you have 50-60 microbars smacked into the DGZ, it will accumulate. The NYC area was defintely trickier and along the waters edge. But when I was on duty Saturday morning, I told our terminal guy that I felt like it could switch over much sooner than we think. Dynamics are an amazing thing.

[Ginx snewx]

Well when you have 50-60 microbars smacked into the DGZ, it will accumulate. The NYC area was defintely trickier and along the waters edge. But when I was on duty Saturday morning, I told our terminal guy that I felt like it could switch over much sooner than we think. Dynamics are an amazing thing.

The trees comment will haunt him/her forever that was just uniformed.

[CoastalWx]

The one thing I did not really foresee, is suck a wet snow for Kevin's area...and even Will. I thought the column was plenty cold enough if they got to like 31F, but there was a warmer layer that materialized and I think allowed for a more wet snow in these areas. I also started getting bullish the day of the storm when we were flipping over, but my fears of the day before came true as right along the coast because difficult to snow thanks to the ra/sn line stalling. So I misjudged KBOS area.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah if it's just light intermittent stuff it will have some trouble, but even stuff that is like 3/4sm to 1sm will stick. I was surprised driving up 93 the other day in Medford. As soon as it switched to all snow (not even heavy at all), it stuck pretty quickly.

possible too that with the profile relatively cold you weren't getting a partial melt on the flakes...when you have a deep -.5 to .5C isothermal layer you can get some partial melt on the outer edges of the flakes and maybe that just results in a quicker/easier melt on a >0C surface? whereas in this case the temps aloft were a good -2 to -7 until the very very lowest levels so you weren't seeing that pre-surface melting going on.

so maybe some of the "normal" rules didn't work out and failed some people.

but the data said you had to ignore some of the traditional "warm" season snow rules. this certainly wasn't modeled and didn't behave like a typical shoulder season event. like we were talking about, those were really really cold soundings.

[CT Rain]

possible too that with the profile relatively cold you weren't getting a partial melt on the flakes...when you have a deep -.5 to .5C isothermal layer you can get some partial melt on the outer edges of the flakes and maybe that just results in a quicker/easier melt on a >0C surface? whereas in this case the temps aloft were a good -2 to -7 until the very very lowest levels so you weren't seeing that pre-surface melting going on.

so maybe some of the "normal" rules didn't work out and failed some people.

but the data said you had to ignore some of the traditional "warm" season snow rules. this certainly wasn't modeled and didn't behave like a typical shoulder season event. like we were talking about, those were really really cold soundings.

Great post and yeah... totally agree with that. A lot of the rules of thumb don't work when you have a once in multi-hundred year event.

[CoastalWx]

possible too that with the profile relatively cold you weren't getting a partial melt on the flakes...when you have a deep -.5 to .5C isothermal layer you can get some partial melt on the outer edges of the flakes and maybe that just results in a quicker/easier melt on a >0C surface? whereas in this case the temps aloft were a good -2 to -7 until the very very lowest levels so you weren't seeing that pre-surface melting going on.

so maybe some of the "normal" rules didn't work out and failed some people.

but the data said you had to ignore some of the traditional "warm" season snow rules. this certainly wasn't modeled and didn't behave like a typical shoulder season event. like we were talking about, those were really really cold soundings.

It was such a crazy setup. We'll never see that again. Perhaps eastern areas closer to the coast may see 2 or 3 inches like they did in Oct 29 2005, but nothing like what we just had. If you step back and think about it...it's mind boggling what we just went through. It might be tough for those to think of it that way when they didn't get more than an inch, but think of this.....we had a rasn mix with a 40kt ne wind on October 29th. You also went from 48F before the precip, to 36F during it. Oh yeah...water temps are 55F.

[Ginx snewx]

It was such a crazy setup. We'll never see that again. Perhaps eastern areas closer to the coast may see 2 or 3 inches like they did in Oct 29 2005, but nothing like what we just had. If you step back and think about it...it's mind boggling what we just went through. It might be tough for those to think of it that way when they didn't get more than an inch, but think of this.....we had a rasn mix with a 40kt ne wind on October 29th. You also went from 48F before the precip, to 36F during it. Oh yeah...water temps are 55F.

These type of situations are where you guys shine. You are out of the Box thinkers, it is a quality which drew me to these boards in the first place. I know you Ryan, Will, Phil, Mitch, Tip, Mek ,Ocean St all think with open minds and are not afraid to go beyond boxed thinking. Sometimes folks get lazy and just go with status quo especially those in Govt positions. Your value to me is immense, than you all.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It was such a crazy setup. We'll never see that again. Perhaps eastern areas closer to the coast may see 2 or 3 inches like they did in Oct 29 2005, but nothing like what we just had. If you step back and think about it...it's mind boggling what we just went through. It might be tough for those to think of it that way when they didn't get more than an inch, but think of this.....we had a rasn mix with a 40kt ne wind on October 29th. You also went from 48F before the precip, to 36F during it. Oh yeah...water temps are 55F.

yeah i'm still just amazed that the BL was as cold as it was so far east. we've seen -3C 850s or whatnot in october with precip but the lower levels are like 4 or 5C...so you just have a cold rain and maybe some high elevation coating or light accumulation. what's also lost in the whole thing...amazingly...is some spots had like 4 or 5" of snow two days earlier. LOL.

[grinch1989]

I normally don't question stuff...but this was a pretty bad bust. I'd like to know why they went so low.

http://www.necn.com/...622&feedID=6240

Not to run people under buses...but this was an absolute joke...I stopped watching years ago

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wonder what Walt thought about this...

His AFD would have been off the hook

[powderfreak]

These type of situations are where you guys shine. You are out of the Box thinkers, it is a quality which drew me to these boards in the first place. I know you Ryan, Will, Phil, Mitch, Tip, Mek ,Ocean St all think with open minds and are not afraid to go beyond boxed thinking. Sometimes folks get lazy and just go with status quo especially those in Govt positions. Your value to me is immense, than you all.

Its also different if you are just posting on a message board instead of actually making an operational forecast for the public.

Ryan was going nuts with excitement on here but looking at his forecast online it was much, much more tamed down leading up to the storm... it was really on the last day that he went balls to the walls.

I think the discussion of "what could happen" with the likes of Tip, Will, and CoastalWx is awesome but its a lot different than an operational forecast. You just don't forecast a historical 1 in hundreds of years event 3-4 days out... though it was discussed plenty on here. No one was forecasting 12-24" at 24-48 hours out except CT_Blizz... though it was discussed that it "could happen if these model runs are correct."

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not to run people under buses...but this was an absolute joke...I stopped watching years ago

Well, we did have 6"+ here

...14"+. That was lolable

[Typhoon Tip]

possible too that with the profile relatively cold you weren't getting a partial melt on the flakes...when you have a deep -.5 to .5C isothermal layer you can get some partial melt on the outer edges of the flakes and maybe that just results in a quicker/easier melt on a >0C surface? whereas in this case the temps aloft were a good -2 to -7 until the very very lowest levels so you weren't seeing that pre-surface melting going on.

so maybe some of the "normal" rules didn't work out and failed some people.

but the data said you had to ignore some of the traditional "warm" season snow rules. this certainly wasn't modeled and didn't behave like a typical shoulder season event. like we were talking about, those were really really cold soundings.

Eh, it's more a deep micro-physics research effort to know for sure - everything "sounds" plausible.

I remember parachutes in Ayer at 35F, with thicknesses of 552dm on October 17, 2009. Wasn't really a particularly impressive dynamical system, but a cool pool aloft nonetheless and some week DPVA to go along with engineered a low SE... The big key was timing in that event - there was an unusually cold slab of air in the 850 critical thickness level. The thing is, once you get to the 700mb level precipitating columns will have frozen content anyway, even in the summer (save perhaps in a hurricane's UVM core). That event was less certain looking than this one.

Scott makes a good point about the solar insolation. Yes I agree that the soil temperature is overrated, particularly at this time of year when seasonal obliqueness makes the surface prone to cooling. The preceding light snow event, and/or general 38F rains that encompassed most of the region just 2 days before the Saturday event (with an intervening night in the upper 20s to lower 30s at that) that was "priming the wick" so to speak. The area became a string just waiting to accumulate wax. In other words, even if there is validity to the soil temperature causality, it was probably irrelevant by the time Saturday arrived.

Hind sight is 20/20, sure - but I keep hearkening back to a few of those Euro modeling images (and NAM in late innings) and seeing a heavily backed wind in a -3SD thickness anomaly for late October; I was fairly certain there would be a high impact serious situation without really even talking exact accumulation numbers. I told Harvey Leonard I thought 10-12" would be good from ORH to Ayer, more west, less east. ... more or less that was a good call, but more importantly, there was really only the 3 synoptic factors contributing to that decision - I figure most other details get muted out by the giantness of those variables.

[Ginx snewx]

Its also different if you are just posting on a message board instead of actually making an operational forecast for the public.

Ryan was going nuts with excitement on here but looking at his forecast online it was much, much more tamed down leading up to the storm... it was really on the last day that he went balls to the walls.

I think the discussion of "what could happen" with the likes of Tip, Will, and CoastalWx is awesome but its a lot different than an operational forecast. You just don't forecast a historical 1 in hundreds of years event 3-4 days out... though it was discussed plenty on here. No one was forecasting 12-24" at 24-48 hours out except CT_Blizz... though it was discussed that it "could happen if these model runs are correct."

Thats not what my post was about

[CT Rain]

Its also different if you are just posting on a message board instead of actually making an operational forecast for the public.

Ryan was going nuts with excitement on here but looking at his forecast online it was much, much more tamed down leading up to the storm... it was really on the last day that he went balls to the walls.

I think the discussion of "what could happen" with the likes of Tip, Will, and CoastalWx is awesome but its a lot different than an operational forecast. You just don't forecast a historical 1 in hundreds of years event 3-4 days out... though it was discussed plenty on here. No one was forecasting 12-24" at 24-48 hours out except CT_Blizz... though it was discussed that it "could happen if these model runs are correct."

Yeah, totally.

Friday morning I had 6-12 for HFD and NW areas... 3-6" around HVN and less in SE CT.

Just needed a 12-20 band

In retrospect though I'm happy with that forecast especially because I really focused on the huge impact even6-12 would have with leaves!!

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, totally.

Friday morning I had 6-12 for HFD and NW areas... 3-6" around HVN and less in SE CT.

Just needed a 12-20 band

In retrospect though I'm happy with that forecast especially because I really focused on the huge impact even6-12 would have with leaves!!

but his post was irrelevant to mine. Mine was about your out of the Box way of thinking, nothing about forecasts or your professional lives.

[powderfreak]

Thats not what my post was about

Ahhh I thought you were just saying that they think outside the box when the Gov't forecasters and other forecasters typically don't.

I was just saying that this message board is a great spot to think outside the box but if you were in the NWS hot seat on Friday afternoon would you have actually forecast 2" of QPF as 15:1 ratio snow in God's Country? Its hard to bust on other meteorologists for a low-balled forecast in this event because even on here we see a lot of..."wow, can you imagine if this happened...." or "NAM is a full on blizzard for the interior"... but I'm not sure if the Mets who are saying that would actually then go to their clients/public/whoever and forecast what they just saw on Bufkit. There's always some tailoring to climo (basically reservations about an exotic solution actually occurring).

These type of situations are where you guys shine. You are out of the Box thinkers, it is a quality which drew me to these boards in the first place. I know you Ryan, Will, Phil, Mitch, Tip, Mek ,Ocean St all think with open minds and are not afraid to go beyond boxed thinking. Sometimes folks get lazy and just go with status quo especially those in Govt positions. Your value to me is immense, than you all.