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Historic October Snowstorm OBS & Discussion Part I


Alpha5

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Even on long island very soon the heavy bands i think will start producing wet snow if keithli is reporting wet snow/rain mix right now

rain/snow mix in CENTRAL NASSAU...wtf...why is this much earlier than progged? the DP is 30 btw...

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RUC also has the bulk of the precip falling between 18z and 21z, then a dryslot appears to move into W LI, SW CT. not sure if this will actually happen, but banding will be important. hopefully temps fall quickly enough, because if the heavy snow ends before sunset, accumulations could be limited a bit

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Here in Bellmore Southshore Nassau County...Temp 36.5 and falling, rain 0.35", pressure 30.02 falling like a rock, wind gusting to 22.

Cams and current condition from my HOME,with emergency scanner feed(Note, click on the play button on the menu bar,not the video screen to stay on page)

http://www.hurricane...NY-Weather.html

can see the snow better on the outdoor cam

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RUC also has the bulk of the precip falling between 18z and 21z, then a dryslot appears to move into W LI, SW CT. not sure if this will actually happen, but banding will be important. hopefully temps fall quickly enough, because if the heavy snow ends before sunset, accumulations could be limited a bit

I think RUC is too aggressive with its northward push, it does that all the time.

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NAM AIR QUALITY DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

956 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

...MIDWEST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC...

THE NAM INITIALIZATION HAS OVER FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL WINDS IN

THIS AREA. THE INDIVIDUAL VALUES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT BUT THE

COVERAGE OF THIS TREND IS NOTABLE. THE NAM FORECAST FOR MOISTURE

DOES NOT QUITE MATCH UP WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE NAM KEEPS THE

FORECAST MOISTURE MAX JUST WEST OF THE OBSERVED OVER THE GREAT

LAKES.

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Even on long island very soon the heavy bands i think will start producing wet snow if keithli is reporting wet snow/rain mix right now

in woodmere and long beach, the last two spots I would have expected to changeover, already are changing over

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pic? I find it hard to believe its now on long beach right now when to the NW its 100 percent rain.

its not 100% rain northwest. theres snow here in roslyn area, 2 reports, reports in northwest suffolk, southwest suffolk..

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I really don't get it. And this was just put out

WESTERN UNION-

1118 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

.THIS AFTERNOON...RAIN...SNOW WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW

ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.

GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

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NAM AIR QUALITY DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

956 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

...MIDWEST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC...

THE NAM INITIALIZATION HAS OVER FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL WINDS IN

THIS AREA. THE INDIVIDUAL VALUES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT BUT THE

COVERAGE OF THIS TREND IS NOTABLE. THE NAM FORECAST FOR MOISTURE

DOES NOT QUITE MATCH UP WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE NAM KEEPS THE

FORECAST MOISTURE MAX JUST WEST OF THE OBSERVED OVER THE GREAT

LAKES.

yes, NAM has the best slug of moisture too far NW IMHO

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pic? I find it hard to believe its now on long beach right now when to the NW its 100 percent rain.

There's some rain mixed in at my house, but I'd say it's half or more snow. Just before in a heavier precip burst, it was mostly snow. The amount of snow in it varies by intensity, but it's definitely snowing outside here.

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