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Historic October Snowstorm OBS & Discussion Part I


Alpha5

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I couldn't agree more.. lets see what the last half of this storm has to provide. Will this turn out being a 12/25/02 type of event for western LI? we shall see..

I doubt it will be of that magnitude. I think the band may pivot out more in a SSW-NNE orientation, often times the most severe backlash events for LI occur when the movement is more from the W-E since you usually are more prone to be stuck under an intense band for long periods.

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upton's disco is scary

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY400 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...SFC LOW WAS ABOUT 180 MILES S OF KJFK AT 19Z. WATER VAPOR SHOWSDEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DRY SLOT APPROACHINGTHE CWA. JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SRN MIDATLANTIC...WITH THEH5 LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY CUT THINGS OFF FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THISEVE...OR AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A MIX WITH RAIN AGAIN AS THE ICECRYSTALS ARE LOST. HOWEVER...THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD BE SHUNTEDOFFSHORE AS THE H5 LOW APPROACHES...ALLOWING THE AREA TO FILL INAGAIN. MSAS HAS THE LOW ONLY ABOUT 1001MB ATTM...THIS WILL CHANGETONIGHT AS THE STORM EXPLODES OVER THE OCEAN.FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...REFER TO THE LATEST GRAPHICS. MOST UNCERTAINAREAS ARE LI AND CSTL CT...ALTHOUGH KGON HAS GONE OVER TO ALLSNOW. HAVE LEFT A WIDE RANGE IN THE ADVY AS A RESULT...WITH THEIMMEDIATE SHORELINE SEEING THE LEAST ACCUMULATION.THE WIND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PRESENT THE MOST DANGEROUS THREAT. ASTHE PRES DROPS AND THE GRAD INCREASES...HOWLING NLY WINDS CAN BEEXPECTED. STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL BE ACROSS ERN ZONES...AND THE HIGHWIND WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED ONE COUNTY IN CT. GUSTS IN THEGRIDS WERE CLOSE TO H95 GFS SPEEDS...BRINGING GUSTS TO AROUND 65MPH. HIGHER GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE HAVE ALREADYBEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN...ANDTHE EXTREME CONDITIONS TONIGHT

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