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Historic October Snowstorm OBS & Discussion Part I


Alpha5

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32F still and snowing heavily. 2" of snow already on the colder surfaces and maybe an inch on most of the local roads - just got back from some errands and it's slippery out there. At this rate, we're easily going to get 4-6" or more. Gonna be some power outages even along I-95 if we get that much snow. Historic. Gorgeous. Love it.

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Sparta, NW NJ 1PM

Elevation: 900'

Temp: 33

DP: 31

Wind: Calm (or the instrument may be stuck)

Snow: Estimated 2"

Liquid: 0.18"

Moderate snow

I was out recently shacking the snow off the smaller trees and shrubs which still have significant foilage on them. Will be a constant battle to save them. Still early in this event but are we seeing a trend that was similar to last year just not nearly as extreme. That being the heaviest bands as they develop will favor more eastern areas then western ones. Last winter this left some high and dry. Will have to see how this unfolds but it is possible this may happen again just to a much less severe degree then last winter.

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Yeah I'm really concerned about that. Lost power for 4 days in Irene and not looking forward to that again. You step outside and its eerily quiet except for the occasional snap of a branch.

32F still and snowing heavily. 2" of snow already on the colder surfaces and maybe an inch on most of the local roads - just got back from some errands and it's slippery out there. At this rate, we're easily going to get 4-6" or more. Gonna be some power outages even along I-95 if we get that much snow. Historic. Gorgeous. Love it.

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toss 'em!! :weenie:

mcd2278.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1201 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY...NRN CT...NRN

RI...WRN AND CNTRL MA...SRN VT AND NH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 291701Z - 292200Z

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH PA...SERN

NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1+

INCH PER HOUR WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS AND MIGHT

OCCASIONALLY APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND HAS SET UP FROM

CNTRL AND ERN PA ENEWD THROUGH NRN NJ AND SERN NY. SURFACE

TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING

WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AROUND 32F. THE 12Z RAOBS AND RUC PFCS

INDICATE SUB-FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPOSPHERE INLAND FROM THE COAST.

HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH TO

KEEP THE PRECIPITATION RAIN IN MOST AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 30 SM OF THE

COAST.

THE SNOW IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A DEEP BAROCLINIC/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE

THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NEWD THROUGH SRN NEW

ENGLAND. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC LEAF AND COOLING

CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NERN STATES JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM A NEGATIVELY

TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET PIVOTING

NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND IN

ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET. IN THE

PROCESS...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD

INCREASE FROM ERN PA THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THIS ZONE OF ASCENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE PORTION OF THERMODYNAMIC

PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW GROWTH. IN ADDITION...PFCS AND CROSS

SECTION DATA INDICATE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK UPRIGHT AND

SLANTWISE INSTABILITY SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT ALSO REMAINS

LIKELY. WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL REMAIN

AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...PROMOTING A WETTER SNOW...AND THIS COULD

REDUCE ACCUMULATION RATES SOMEWHAT DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE

FLAKES.

..DIAL.. 10/29/2011

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toss 'em!! :weenie:

mcd2278.gif

Have you read upton's latest point forecast for tonight?

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 2am. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 33. Breezy, with a north wind between 16 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. "

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