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Historic October Snowstorm OBS & Discussion Part I


Alpha5

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For the record, the dryslot you see on radar is the beginning of the mid level features forcing the development of the cold conveyor belt and comma head. Over the next few hours you're going to begin to see this come into better focus. Although things may (or may not) slow down for an hour or two, the cold conveyor belt arguably will have the heaviest precipitation and the best snow growth.

The 12z SPC WRF has this directly over the city 5 hours from now.

refd_1000m_f07.gif

refd_1000m_f09.gif

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This has got to go down as one of the worst forecasted events in history for NYC. All the local TV Mets were slaying a slushy coating to an inch. Now they're saying we might get 6"!!!!! That's incredible! The models (EURO) were right!

When you deal with the positioning in regard to the rain/snow line and the thermal profile of the lower troposphere in October, errors are bound to happen.

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