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November Discussion


DaculaWeather

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I know Im looking forward to see how cold we can get for the latter part of Nov. We will begin making snow every chance we can get from here till April.

For those folks from the Whee, WCU is hiring us out to blow snow on campus for their Nov 30 Holiday Event. Will def post pics when we begin blowing; hopefully in a week or so!

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Amazing to some of the similarities we are seeing forecast in the 11-15 day period compared to how the 2nd half of November finished last year.

Last Half of Nov 2010

post-25-0-15854100-1320417158.jpg

GFS ENSEMBLE Day 16

post-25-0-76606700-1320417200.jpg

Notice the presence of a west-based -NAO, trough in western Canada.

Interesting post but don't go getting me excited lol. Man, if we have a year like last year and the last few that would just be astonishing. I was just looking at snow pics from last winter and I actually got butterflies thinking about it happening again.

Here's to hoping your observations is a good sign. :snowman:

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He's made some comments that I just recently was made aware of and if I had saw them he would be gone. The southeast crew is the best on this board and has the least kind of these type of people and it's going to stay that way. I have had very little time the last few months (which I should have more shortly) and I apologize to those who he insulted and the rest of you that I wasn't here to take care of it. Fortunately, midlo, who is amazing and is the absolute best, took care of it. But it's not fair he had to.

That said, Just so you guys know, we will likely be adding another mod very very shortly and I think everyone will like, if not love who it is and garbage like this will be taken care of faster.

And just a reminder, don't hesitate to report someone or pm me about someone if they are being a problem.

I'd be happy to volunteer if you need mod help.

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Great observation Allan, now if we can only get that block to retrograde into central Canada and down through the Plains in time for Christmas again! :arrowhead:

Bulk of the heavier precip exited here this am, somewhat underperforming as the American suite was consistent on 1"+, NAM even had close to 2". Verified at a little over 0.5. Sun is poking through the clouds, likely short lived though as stratiform RN is filling in over N central NC in response to the ULL passing through. Kind of ready for the warm up next week, pattern over the next 5-7 keeps the action to our west, bring on the sun and upper 60's lower 70's!

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Great observation Allan, now if we can only get that block to retrograde into central Canada and down through the Plains in time for Christmas again! :arrowhead:

Bulk of the heavier precip exited here this am, somewhat underperforming as the American suite was consistent on 1"+, NAM even had close to 2". Verified at a little over 0.5. Sun is poking through the clouds, likely short lived though as stratiform RN is filling in over N central NC in response to the ULL passing through. Kind of ready for the warm up next week, pattern over the next 5-7 keeps the action to our west, bring on the sun and upper 60's lower 70's!

I love cold and snow, but i agree............need to get at least one or two more rounds of golf out of my system before winter.

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expecting 40mph + gusts down here on the coast tonight as this low starts to wind up off ILM. should be a fun little coastal to watch.

.73 in the bucket last night, maybe a little more this afternoon in scattered showers

There's going to be a nice pressure gradient on the coast next 24 hours with a 1032 high in NY against the 1004 low off MYB

post-38-0-38026900-1320425427.gif

Had 1.06" and still raining lightly.

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Got almost the exact same amount here on the south side of the app chain. .97" here in Dahlonega. More than I was expecting.

Nice to see you cash in :thumbsup:

I ended up with .9 which is a lot better that I'd hoped for. And now a nice cool wind is blowing. I feel renewed, lol.

What do you think the chances are the pattern will allow for the gulf low the gfs wants to offer in the crazy end of the model? I'm seeing maybe blocking, and maybe slow moving systems, and maybe deep diving systems, and I want to believe, I really do, but........ :) I mean, 9 closed lows must have power, right? Tony

Wooo hooooo!! It's about time Tony :wub:

1.86" overnight. sweet...

Very, very nice total :wub:

1.12" overnight! Already have had more rain in November than the entire month of October! :thumbsup:

This is nice to see :thumbsup:

He's made some comments that I just recently was made aware of and if I had saw them he would be gone. The southeast crew is the best on this board and has the least kind of these type of people and it's going to stay that way. I have had very little time the last few months (which I should have more shortly) and I apologize to those who he insulted and the rest of you that I wasn't here to take care of it. Fortunately, midlo, who is amazing and is the absolute best, took care of it. But it's not fair he had to.

That said, Just so you guys know, we will likely be adding another mod very very shortly and I think everyone will like, if not love who it is and garbage like this will be taken care of faster.

And just a reminder, don't hesitate to report someone or pm me about someone if they are being a problem.

The SE Crew is the best of the best :wub:

Amazing to some of the similarities we are seeing forecast in the 11-15 day period compared to how the 2nd half of November finished last year.

Notice the presence of a west-based -NAO, trough in western Canada.

This gave me tingles :hug:

I didn't quite manage enough sprinkles to reach the 1/4" mark, but it was close with .20 and I'll take it :weight_lift:

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I'm amazed at the accumulation I received last night, with regards to how dry the water vapor images last night looked.

Fall colors are nearing peak in Mooresville, NC. :) looks beautiful with everything being so wet.

Here is a 24 hours precip total map:

Link to it here: http://www.accuweath...r/sc_/radar.asp

I question that map (at least for my localized area here in TN). I know of several weather stations in northeast TN (mine included) that is squarely within their 3 inch range and none of those stations ended with more than 1.6 inches in the prior 24 hours. I wonder why this would be off so much?

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Sun has broke the sky wide open now. Winds have also increased in the last hour or so... Leaves are going to take a beating this afternoon...

There's going to be a nice pressure gradient on the coast next 24 hours with a 1032 high in NY against the 1004 low off MYB

Had 1.06" and still raining lightly.

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Only wound up with a storm total of .60" here as almost all of that came from that first band.

More times than not, our local radar(KMRX) under estimates rainfall here( I record with official NWS gage ). I noticed the heavy rain event before this one that most of the drops were rather small, and there was even more of an under estimate from Radar. When rainfall is of greater Dbz it seems to be reflected better on estimates,of which makes sense as it is being picked up better.

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I'm amazed at the accumulation I received last night, with regards to how dry the water vapor images last night looked.

Thanks for posting that accum map! It helped me sniff out a crack in the base of my RN gauge. Checked it around 11 when the sun came out, and was sitting just over 1/2". Saw your map and went to re-examine, was under a quarter inch. A general 1.5" seems reasonable here based on the puddling and water in the low areas outback. Axis of heaviest QPF stayed to the north, but still not totally done as the RAH site is continuing to fill in as the surface low slowly exits off the SE NC coast and the upper level traverses the NC/SC boarder. Not much wind atm, but the 12z global has it picking up to 20 sustained here this evening.

post-382-0-40839100-1320429251.jpg

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I question that map (at least for my localized area here in TN). I know of several weather stations in northeast TN (mine included) that is squarely within their 3 inch range and none of those stations ended with more than 1.6 inches in the prior 24 hours. I wonder why this would be off so much?

Well it's a Doppler radar accumulation averaged map. Microscale/Mesoscale phenomena could have played a role for accumulations in your localized area. Also, no map is 100% correct, just saying. Every map has its pro and cons.

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'Only' picked up another .28" today, but wow, it sure has been a long time since I walked through the yard and had it "squish" back at me! Was hoping for more backside rain, but very happy with this event.

Watching radar and sat. images this evening, it sure looks like quite a storm getting it's act together off the Carolina coasts. Fun stuff to observe!

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 558 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011 ...STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CAPE FEAR AND THE GRAND STRAND THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... NCZ105>110-SCZ054-051000- /O.NEW.KILM.WI.Y.0001.111105T0000Z-111105T2100Z/ INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER- COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK- COASTAL HORRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURGAW...SURF CITY...TOPSAIL BEACH... WILMINGTON...CAROLINA BEACH...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...LELAND... BOLIVIA...SHALLOTTE...OCEAN ISLE BEACH...HOLDEN BEACH... OAK ISLAND...SOUTHPORT...MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH... GARDEN CITY 558 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY. * TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. * WINDS...NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...GUSTING FREQUENTLY TO 45 MPH. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. * IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAKE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES DIFFICULT...AND CAN KNOCK DOWN SMALL BRANCHES AND DEAD OR WEAKENED TREES WHICH MAY CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. LIGHT LAWN FURNITURE...TRASH CANS...AND BASKETBALL GOALS MAY BE KNOCKED OVER OR BLOWN AROUND AS WELL.

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