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November Discussion


DaculaWeather

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Was just stirred by the sound of heavy rain...

Radar reveals a nearly-stationary band parked over a small area of Northeast TN.

post-1466-0-09466400-1320388370.gif

Edit: Surface map reveals the low over Western NC has moved eastward into a near-perfect position for this setup, as I'm to the northwest.

Now to fall back to sleep to the sound of moderate rain.

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I didn't look much at the model today for specifics, but the rainier pattern should shift south some as we go toward Winter, but keep in mind the La Nina is usually a little drier than normal. But, blocking is a supressor so that would favor central GA during those times for precip, and thats what a lot of forecasters are banking on this season. If we get a really strong blocking pattern, you may be ground zero for a lot of fun and games. Its rare but at some point we'll have that kind of pattern again and a La Nina would favor it more than a nino...especially considering since we've had some major blocks the last couple years and the overall NAO is probably in the longer term negative state. So Ala/GA/SC region is probably going to experience much more Wintry precip than they've grown accustomed to in most of our lifetimes, since the cycle is about 30 plus, 30 negative.

Are you trying to get my hopes up ;) Well, chances don' t seem to get any better than this....here's to hoping for a great winter.....and hoping the computer lives through it :lol:

Seroiusly...its 5 years old....anyone want to pm me and tell me how to save my favorites list to my jump drive? Would really appreciate it...I know it can be done, I'm just not that computer literate.

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From GSP AFD...

BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS THIS MORNING. COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGES...BUT THAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAINLY ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY AREAS.

Already 30 above 5700' in Macon County and Mt Mitchell is at 32.

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From NWS-GSP on Facebook

So far there have been few reports of snow in the high elevations of the NC Mountains this morning, November 4th. We did hear that 441 through Newfound Gap is closed due to snow and ice, but haven't heard of any amounts. If anybody out there sees any snow (and you'll need to be above 5000 feet for that to happen), let us know.

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From GSP AFD...

BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS THIS MORNING. COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGES...BUT THAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAINLY ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY AREAS.

Already 30 above 5700' in Macon County and Mt Mitchell is at 32.

Mt Mitchell webcam at 8:45 shows snow.

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1.86" overnight. sweet...

1.12" overnight! Already have had more rain in November than the entire month of October! :thumbsup:

Glad you guys got a nice one...this looked good for your area. Right now I'm at .95" and the backside of the circulation is driving another round of rain through, so I may pass 1". Looking out at the north woods is a sight I don't usually see with dark clouds, pretty stiff winds and the nice colors on the trees. Makes for a great picture of contrasts.

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My first post but just gotta say it.....

Valkhorn will get banned is my forecasat....Seriously just STFU....My god man,You're talking to trained professionals who have probably forgot more about the weather than you will ever know....If you would stand in the mirrow and read what you post you SHOULD see just how stupid you sound...Jesus Christ Allmighty enough already...

He's made some comments that I just recently was made aware of and if I had saw them he would be gone. The southeast crew is the best on this board and has the least kind of these type of people and it's going to stay that way. I have had very little time the last few months (which I should have more shortly) and I apologize to those who he insulted and the rest of you that I wasn't here to take care of it. Fortunately, midlo, who is amazing and is the absolute best, took care of it. But it's not fair he had to.

That said, Just so you guys know, we will likely be adding another mod very very shortly and I think everyone will like, if not love who it is and garbage like this will be taken care of faster.

And just a reminder, don't hesitate to report someone or pm me about someone if they are being a problem.

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I didn't look much at the model today for specifics, but the rainier pattern should shift south some as we go toward Winter, but keep in mind the La Nina is usually a little drier than normal. But, blocking is a supressor so that would favor central GA during those times for precip, and thats what a lot of forecasters are banking on this season. If we get a really strong blocking pattern, you may be ground zero for a lot of fun and games. Its rare but at some point we'll have that kind of pattern again and a La Nina would favor it more than a nino...especially considering since we've had some major blocks the last couple years and the overall NAO is probably in the longer term negative state. So Ala/GA/SC region is probably going to experience much more Wintry precip than they've grown accustomed to in most of our lifetimes, since the cycle is about 30 plus, 30 negative.

Thanks, man! From your keyboard to the record books :) Now, if we can get the Thames to freeze, that will be a good start for the next 30, lol.

43.3 overnight, so not much change after the rain. T

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He's made some comments that I just recently was made aware of and if I had saw them he would be gone. The southeast crew is the best on this board and has the least kind of these type of people and it's going to stay that way. I have had very little time the last few months (which I should have more shortly) and I apologize to those who he insulted and the rest of you that I wasn't here to take care of it. Fortunately, midlo, who is amazing and is the absolute best, took care of it. But it's not fair he had to.

That said, Just so you guys know, we will likely be adding another mod very very shortly and I think everyone will like, if not love who it is and garbage like this will be taken care of faster.

And just a reminder, don't hesitate to report someone or pm me about someone if they are being a problem.

Awesome! I'm looking forward to see who the new mod is. This post is completely full of win.

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Amazing to some of the similarities we are seeing forecast in the 11-15 day period compared to how the 2nd half of November finished last year.

Notice the presence of a west-based -NAO, trough in western Canada.

It will be interesting to see if we can lock into a good pattern for a couple of weeks at a time or if the coming pattern flip will be transient.

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