griteater Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Interesting post from isohume about GSP having more days with severe / tornado warnings this year than any other office in the nation... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/28922-interesting-charts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Interesting post from isohume about GSP having more days with severe / tornado warnings this year than any other office in the nation... http://www.americanw...resting-charts/ It was amazingly active right in the heart of their CWA last Spring, the damage in many counties around Gaston and Cleveland was nearly like an ice storm on atleast a couple big events. There are still several places in Shelby where 100 year old Oaks are laying right beside the roads and highways. Just got in and checked the GFS. It's been toying with the blocking closed high for several runs, so this is not a given yet, but at some point, it probably will occur. The models are also usually too fast with blocking, and the full effects take a while to show up for us, but eventually we'd get cold and stormy. Of course this is only November so rain would be the primary, but if we get this pattern in later Dec and Jan/Feb, that's when the snow lovers would rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 RAH is coming in with some big numbers in their updated forecast for here.... half to 3/4" overnight (after 2AM at that) , and 3/4 to 1 inch tomorrow. We'll see. Radar right now shows rain just crossing over from GA/TN into the far SW corner of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Hope the rebuilt dunelines over on the OBX hold up. Sounds like they're in for a good gale via The Outer Banks Voice on FB... High winds will follow heavy rain into the weekend as a strong coastal storm moves along the South and North Carolina border, then offshore. Up to two inches of rain are possible on Hatteras Island Friday with a little less along the northern beaches, the National Weather Service says. By Friday night, winds will increase to between 28 and 31 mph from the north and northeast with gusts approaching 50 mph. The rain will be gone Saturday, but winds will continue, gusting to 41 mph on the northern beaches and 47 mph along Hatteras Island. Waves will build to 12 to 14 feet, according to the NWS office in Newport. Gale watches or warnings might be issued later Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Interesting post from isohume about GSP having more days with severe / tornado warnings this year than any other office in the nation... http://www.americanw...resting-charts/ If you take into account that the Southern Appalachians helps intialize convection in the summer and then add the fact that the two biggest severe weather events of the year went right through the GSP CWA then I can see us having the most warnings of anybody in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Check this out!!! SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND I might see my first little FRIZZLE ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Got some light rain falling..putting back the moisture the wind has been taking all day. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 New in the RAH HWO - I'm liking this-- 457 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING... PRIMARILY IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 RAH is coming in with some big numbers in their updated forecast for here.... half to 3/4" overnight (after 2AM at that) , and 3/4 to 1 inch tomorrow. We'll see. Radar right now shows rain just crossing over from GA/TN into the far SW corner of NC. as the system drops toward northern SC, that should really put central NC in a nice spot for this. Hope you get an inch, it looks possible and pretty widespread. The ECMWF seems to go too low (but even it is jiving with GFS this time). Is that today's run? I just saw the old height comparison, but if the Scandinavian ridge links with the Greenland blocking, that is one very good way to get it cold and stormy in the East. I put an old GFS long range map up a few days ago that showed the Scandinavian ridge really flexing and wanting to work back north and west. Who knows yet though, the models are usually too fast with it. It will be a good test to see how things may go this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schlontz Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 You never played Vegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Just wanted to say that I would buy your book as well Robert..........I too have learned a good deal from you especially when it comes to pattern changes and I consider you a friend as well as a good forecaster. We appreciate your input and you add a lot to the SE forum........Now bring on winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'm thinking about a book. That would be fun to do, but I 'd have to find the target audience. A buch of other things would have to come together and it would be a huge undertaking, but I'll post more about it later. And back on topic, the rain is coming as the strong 5h system begins dropping southeast starting now...going from central Missouri to eastern TN and the northern part of SC eventually offshore around ILM. That track is probably going to put the best rains just north of where I made my map, so now I think northern NC is going to get into a solid rain event, southern VA. The models place GSO to RDU in a sweet spot, and again right on the outer banks with strong development just offshore as the 5h tightens and shifts to neutral or neg. tilt, which would easily develop a small but intense gale offshore. I would read any book about weather you decide to write - would be a blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 .67" is the total and the band just moved through. I'm quite pleased, I wasn't expecting this much. Wind is picking up and the leaves are coming off like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Wahoo! I'm getting the best rain I've had in a long while! Over half an inch by now. Now I know that seems like chump change to a lot of you, but to me, it is big time, lol. I've managed to miss all the dry holes and had a steady downpour. I've got puddles, and runnels, the whole 9 yards! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Wahoo! I'm getting the best rain I've had in a long while! Over half an inch by now. Now I know that seems like chump change to a lot of you, but to me, it is big time, lol. I've managed to miss all the dry holes and had a steady downpour. I've got puddles, and runnels, the whole 9 yards! Tony thats pretty good, glad you got hit. Looks like if you go much further south you'll be out of the band as it narrows down to just a strip. The rain just started here, and I'm hoping for the models to have the .75" right. Its been pretty good here for a while. No floods or anything but I'm not missing out for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevinhmd Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Wow. Got 0.92" from that! Much more than I expected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 4, 2011 Author Share Posted November 4, 2011 0.76" here and the rain just ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Still raining, .49 here in johnson city. Rainy cool night 50 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Rain's coming down a good bit now. It was doing just a light shower for an hour earlier this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 got more than i thought here as well, ended up with .68" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Wow. Got 0.92" from that! Much more than I expected! Got almost the exact same amount here on the south side of the app chain. .97" here in Dahlonega. More than I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Very breezy night here. Multiple gusts over 25 mph, and there was one that had to be 35+. Temperature has dropped to 46o since the rain stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Lowest pressures with the surface low re-forming in the lee of the Apps are in the vicinity of Greenwood, SC / Augusta, GA. Sfc pressure at Greenwood, SC has dropped from 30.20 inches at 10AM, down to 29.82 at 9PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 thats pretty good, glad you got hit. Looks like if you go much further south you'll be out of the band as it narrows down to just a strip. The rain just started here, and I'm hoping for the models to have the .75" right. Its been pretty good here for a while. No floods or anything but I'm not missing out for sure. I ended up with .9 which is a lot better that I'd hoped for. And now a nice cool wind is blowing. I feel renewed, lol. What do you think the chances are the pattern will allow for the gulf low the gfs wants to offer in the crazy end of the model? I'm seeing maybe blocking, and maybe slow moving systems, and maybe deep diving systems, and I want to believe, I really do, but........ I mean, 9 closed lows must have power, right? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I had .65" in the bucket. The deck steps sure were cold on my bare feet when I put the dog out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I ended up with .9 which is a lot better that I'd hoped for. And now a nice cool wind is blowing. I feel renewed, lol. What do you think the chances are the pattern will allow for the gulf low the gfs wants to offer in the crazy end of the model? I'm seeing maybe blocking, and maybe slow moving systems, and maybe deep diving systems, and I want to believe, I really do, but........ I mean, 9 closed lows must have power, right? Tony I didn't look much at the model today for specifics, but the rainier pattern should shift south some as we go toward Winter, but keep in mind the La Nina is usually a little drier than normal. But, blocking is a supressor so that would favor central GA during those times for precip, and thats what a lot of forecasters are banking on this season. If we get a really strong blocking pattern, you may be ground zero for a lot of fun and games. Its rare but at some point we'll have that kind of pattern again and a La Nina would favor it more than a nino...especially considering since we've had some major blocks the last couple years and the overall NAO is probably in the longer term negative state. So Ala/GA/SC region is probably going to experience much more Wintry precip than they've grown accustomed to in most of our lifetimes, since the cycle is about 30 plus, 30 negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Lol got to love DT and his "Alert's" From his facebook page: *** ALERT *** EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES for the 3rd run in a row NOW develop a SIGNIFICANT change in the overall pattern. This Model the shows a BULGE developing t in the Jet stream over Greenland.. AND shows Scandinavia Bulge in the Jet stream retrograding back to Iceland. We are now beginning to see consistency in the Models .... that the pattern is about to change at Mid NOV... NOV 15. . That does NOT mean its going to get REAL cold by NOV 15 or wintry or snowy... But SOME sort of pattern change IS coming by Mid month that wiill end the Mild spell. I really need to go out and buy me a rain gauge of some sort. That way I can keep track of my rain amounts at the house, don't think wunderground really cuts it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Rode to Roan Mtn today.. Sure didnt expect to see SNOW on the ground!!!! Snow1.bmp Snow2.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Moderate to heavy rain in Mooresville, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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