calculus1 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 You can't base patterns on flukes or otherwise all you'll have is confirmation bias. What we've seen already, at least for Oct 1st, was below normal yes, but didn't really shatter any records from what I could tell. The front after that was only slightly below normal compared to what's typical for middle October. That's why I don't take people seriously when they try to base individual storms and storm tracks off of analogs which go off of average temperature, because flukes aren't used in determining statistical trends, and predicting flukes is mere guesswork at this point. That's why unless some extreme fluke of nature is 36 hours away, I probably won't predict it. When the storm hit new england last weekend, I didn't even buy it until about 24 hours out to be honest, and pretty much stuck to snow for upstate PA and NY for a long while - even before other people latched onto at least the possibility of some snow for that time frame in this forum. Look, man, I tried to get others to cut you some slack in the Banter Forum, but you've got to learn to speak wisely. Just offer a little more respect and humility in your posts if you expect to receive the same from others. I can't defend this post at all. People with red tags have proven knowledge and training due to the degrees they hold. I wouldn't walk up to a professor of archaeology and debate his views on early Egyptian civilizations just because I like movies with mummies in them. Sure, I am entitled to a difference of opinion, but sometimes it's better to keep those opinions to myself or to offer them with much more humility than you have been prone to exhibit. Just my words of advice (which you are free to do with as you see fit, I suppose). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schlontz Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Well I'm not being confrontational with you, in fact I was with you last week when I saw the possibility of a major snow, well before it was being mentioned and almost gave you kudos for also seeing that. I usually forecast in a lot of different ways, even if that includes a "fluke" event, if the pattern or other things I'm looking at support it, I will call it. Turns out I was too busy and had other obligations last week to give that storm the big attention it deserves. But predicting a fluke is not really guesswork as you call it. I've seen many big events across the nation over the years, and it was not a surprise to me, maybe it was a huge suprise to the models or to some forecasters, but does that make it a "fluke"? If you live by the models you'll die by the models. I won't go into my whole overall forecasting methodology, but theres a lot to it. And I am not ashamed of my record , but if you don't take my forecasts seriously, thats fine, and no hard feelings. But I'm comfortable with it. Nor should you be ashamed of your record. You are consistently one of the best mets on the entire board, and if someday you do decide to go in depth on your forecasting methodology, I'm sure there are many here who would love to read about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 +1 Nor should you be ashamed of your record. You are consistently one of the best mets on the entire board, and if someday you do decide to go in depth on your forecasting methodology, I'm sure there are many here would love to read about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Nor should you be ashamed of your record. You are consistently one of the best mets on the entire board, and if someday you do decide to go in depth on your forecasting methodology, I'm sure there are many here would love to read about it. Thanks for the compliments! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Look, man, I tried to get others to cut you some slack in the Banter Forum, but you've got to learn to speak wisely. Just offer a little more respect and humility in your posts if you expect to receive the same from others. I can't defend this post at all. People with red tags have proven knowledge and training due to the degrees they hold. I wouldn't walk up to a professor of archaeology and debate his views on early Egyptian civilizations just because I like movies with mummies in them. Sure, I am entitled to a difference of opinion, but sometimes it's better to keep those opinions to myself or to offer them with much more humility than you have been prone to exhibit. Just my words of advice (which you are free to do with as you see fit, I suppose). You won't be able to get some to cut people slack because they aren't interested in mature conversation. After all, just today two people who don't even know me personally told me to 'stop thinking' and to 'stfu'. I can be abrasive, yes, and it's in my nature. I don't mean anything personal by it - I'm just no-nonsense. It's the internet. I'm not here for a popularity contest or to win favors from everyone. Also, let the records show that I respect some of the Mets around here, including Foothills. That doesn't mean I have to agree with him 100% of the time, or can't voice my opinion when I disagree. I know I've been wrong before, but unlike some of the non-met posters around here, at least I'll put forward my opinions the best I can and back away when I'm wrong. As far as people like buckeye, or lugnutz, or any others that have insulted me by doing nothing more than typing 'u' for 'you', incomplete sentences, and cutesy GIFs, they can say whatever they want, but if they're immature about it they aren't making me look any worse, and are in fact making themselves look bad. As far as the two people I mentioned, and others, well I've been insulted and name-called by worse people than that, but you know, I'm still here. And, even if I get banned, I'll still be alive breathing in the fresh air of wherever I call home. There are worse things people can say to me, and no matter what people dole out on the internet, to paraphrase Tiny Tim, I'll be "Living in the Sunlight, Loving in the Moonlight, Having a wonderful time!" Speaking of obs, now that my irrigation system is officially winterized, I'll look forward to the next batch of rain even if the growing season has pretty much stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'd keep an eye on that system that the GFS and Euro brings across the SE around next week Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 You are right you don't have to agree with anybody but I will say you might want to see how accurate Foothills has been over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 You are right you don't have to agree with anybody but I will say you might want to see how accurate Foothills has been over the years. I didn't see him as really attacking me, just think he's venting and judging from the posts over the last few days he got misunderstood some, then that got compounded or something. I don't like being in the middle of anything, so no hard feelings to him or anybody. But thanks for the compliments, even though I'm just an average forecaster I think. Anyway, time for the new models and we'll see how the next system affects us....looking forward to more rain, then a sunny weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Nor should you be ashamed of your record. You are consistently one of the best mets on the entire board, and if someday you do decide to go in depth on your forecasting methodology, I'm sure there are many here who would love to read about it. +1 I value the wisdom FoothillsNC brings to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 To get the heavier precip, you definitely want to be north of the 500mb vort max track with this kind of system - that will keep those areas in the comma head precip. Along and south of the vort max track, the areal coverage of precip will be less. As of now, that puts NC in the bullseye...but again, these storms traversing the apps can be tricky, and can underperform. I don't see the proper configuration with the jet to support divergence aloft. Reforming sfc low in the lee of the apps in NE GA and NW SC is the fly in the oinment as to how much that aids the precip. I'll go with a general 0.50 to 1.25 across the western 2/3 of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I can be abrasive, yes, and it's in my nature. I don't mean anything personal by it - I'm just no-nonsense. It's the internet. I'm not here for a popularity contest or to win favors from everyone. It all boils down those four sentences. Your no-nonsense comes across as arrogance due to the way you phrase things, especially when you are first introducing yourself to an established group such as this one. Social skills are important even on an internet board. I agree this is not a popularity contest per say, but in order to be taken seriously you have to reach at least a minimal level of acceptance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'm more inclined to believe the slightly more northerly track of the 500mb vort max as seen on the 00z GFS and RGEM (tracking it more toward Myrtle Beach) vs. the more southerly track of the NAM (tracking it toward Charleston). I've seen this bias with the NAM before...one result being that I believe the GFS and RGEM are more on track with showing precip extending farther up into Virginia on the north side of the precip shield. 00z RGEM looking quite moist in NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 0Z GFS has an East based -NAO. Has 570 DM heights over and east of Greenland. It's been suggesting a pattern change in the extended for quite sometime. Will it stay consistent? And will it lock in? I think the general idea is there... Still looks like severe weather possible next week. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Large area in NC of 2-3 inch totals on RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Nice look to the current storm system. It's really dumping some rain across MO and IL. http://gwxmanblog.bl...-for-later.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 Thanks for the compliments! +1 I value the wisdom FoothillsNC brings to the board. IMHO, Robert is the best on the southeast section of the board, and that's saying a lot because we have MANY great met's here. It's amazing they spend the time they do sharing their knowledge and experience for free... I can't say enough thanks to all of the mets on this board. And thank you Robert for the depth of knowledge that you share and the completeness of your explanations. I've learned a ton from you and hope to continue for many years to come! And Robert... sounds like it's time to start writing! Forecasting Methodology for the Southeast is book #1 and book #2 is Southeast Winter Storms - An in Depth Study I'm feeling it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 But thanks for the compliments, even though I'm just an average forecaster I think. You da man! You are more than AVERAGE....and that's for sure Keep on keepin on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I didn't see him as really attacking me, just think he's venting and judging from the posts over the last few days he got misunderstood some, then that got compounded or something. I don't like being in the middle of anything, so no hard feelings to him or anybody. But thanks for the compliments, even though I'm just an average forecaster I think. Anyway, time for the new models and we'll see how the next system affects us....looking forward to more rain, then a sunny weekend. I agree but some of us have been able to get to know you personally and we will defend you and your forecast. I think you can see most on here are always on your side. Rain, Rain,Rain I want Snow, Snow, Snow!! Come on Robert bring it to us as soon as you can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 I like these guys in Birmingham... RIDGING BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...IT GETS SEPARATED FROM ITS MODE OF TRANSPORTATION AND HANGS UP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND IT...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...ENDS UP WITH NOWHERE TO GO. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SURFACE WEDGE TO SET UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY GIVE US A CAD ISSUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME OVERRUNNING IS SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MEANS MORE CLOUDS... AND POTENTIALLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RUN WITH THIS THOUGHT...KEEPING HIGHS ON SUNDAY 2-4 DEGREE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. NOW THE CLOSED LOW WILD CARD COMES INTO PLAY. WITH NOWHERE FOR IT TO GO AND THIS WEDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH STUCK BEHIND IT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY EVOLVES IN RESPONSE. SURPRISINGLY ENOUGH...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...BRINGING IT INTO THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OUT OF THE LAST 2 OR 3 SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS EVOLUTION AS TO WHERE THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL END UP TO GIVE US A THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. FOR NOW...LETS GO AHEAD WITH BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE CONTINUED OPEN WAVE NATURE OF THE LATEST EURO RUN PULLING THE SUPPORTING CAST OF DYNAMICS NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH OF THE STATE. IT DOES NEED TO BE SAID THAT IF THE CURRENT GFS VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST DOSE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN QUITE AWHILE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Nor should you be ashamed of your record. You are consistently one of the best mets on the entire board, and if someday you do decide to go in depth on your forecasting methodology, I'm sure there are many here who would love to read about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Another chilly morning - much below the forecast 36 --- dropped down to 30 again between 7:30 and 8 this morning after sitting on 32 most of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Frost again this moring in Mt Airy.Thats 5 in a row now .Glad to see the grass growing season coming to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Down to 28 this morning. Thats 5 days in a row below 30. Nice to wake up to start my car each morning; love that crunch walk! Cataloochee opens Saturday (11am - 5pm) for those ready to pick up season passes. We're about 3 weeks from opening day!!! Can't wait to hit the slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 And Robert... sounds like it's time to start writing! Forecasting Methodology for the Southeast is book #1 and book #2 is Southeast Winter Storms - An in Depth Study I'm feeling it! I'm thinking about a book. That would be fun to do, but I 'd have to find the target audience. A buch of other things would have to come together and it would be a huge undertaking, but I'll post more about it later. And back on topic, the rain is coming as the strong 5h system begins dropping southeast starting now...going from central Missouri to eastern TN and the northern part of SC eventually offshore around ILM. That track is probably going to put the best rains just north of where I made my map, so now I think northern NC is going to get into a solid rain event, southern VA. The models place GSO to RDU in a sweet spot, and again right on the outer banks with strong development just offshore as the 5h tightens and shifts to neutral or neg. tilt, which would easily develop a small but intense gale offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 HPC is forecasting three quarters of an inch to 1.7 inches of rain for portions of North Carolina. 12 UTC NAM is on the same boat but just a bit northwest of the HPC. HPC: NAM: Also for (RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD) counties: "THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED...WEAK TORNADO FORMING IN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN UPSTATE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR." (KGSP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 It's only early November and people are already getting froggy in here? Wow. Cannot wait until December this year! As an aside, I would buy your book in a heartbeat Robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Looks like two max's on the 12z gfs, Northern North Carolina and along the Blue Ridge Escarpment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 It's only early November and people are already getting froggy in here? Wow. Cannot wait until December this year! As an aside, I would buy your book in a heartbeat Robert. Greg, you might be in the book, in a way, if he talks about the 93 March wonder, lol. If fact we had all better watch out, if he decides to do a 'tell all" I like that Goofy at 6z had a low in the gulf, finally. If I only get one la la storm to become real this year, that'd be my choice. Notice, I said this year, not this winter. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 You won't be able to get some to cut people slack because they aren't interested in mature conversation. After all, just today two people who don't even know me personally told me to 'stop thinking' and to 'stfu'. I can be abrasive, yes, and it's in my nature. I don't mean anything personal by it - I'm just no-nonsense. It's the internet. I'm not here for a popularity contest or to win favors from everyone. Also, let the records show that I respect some of the Mets around here, including Foothills. That doesn't mean I have to agree with him 100% of the time, or can't voice my opinion when I disagree. I know I've been wrong before, but unlike some of the non-met posters around here, at least I'll put forward my opinions the best I can and back away when I'm wrong. As far as people like buckeye, or lugnutz, or any others that have insulted me by doing nothing more than typing 'u' for 'you', incomplete sentences, and cutesy GIFs, they can say whatever they want, but if they're immature about it they aren't making me look any worse, and are in fact making themselves look bad. As far as the two people I mentioned, and others, well I've been insulted and name-called by worse people than that, but you know, I'm still here. And, even if I get banned, I'll still be alive breathing in the fresh air of wherever I call home. There are worse things people can say to me, and no matter what people dole out on the internet, to paraphrase Tiny Tim, I'll be "Living in the Sunlight, Loving in the Moonlight, Having a wonderful time!" Speaking of obs, now that my irrigation system is officially winterized, I'll look forward to the next batch of rain even if the growing season has pretty much stopped. When i first started reading your posts i thought to myself "great" another knowledgeable person who is close to my area who could give some valuable insight about the weather in my area..But dude,when you tell a pro met that he is no expert on snow just because he's from georgia and then gets confrontational with one of the most Ingenious minds on the board with Robert...Well your expertise about the weather just flew out the window with me...I will apologize to you for my original post,..It's not any of my business when,where,what or how you like to explain your theories about the weather...Sometimes we take things too seriously when one should just ignore the man behind the curtain...So again i apologize.. I would like to say Robert (FootHills) is one of the main reasons i visit the SE forum...He truly has a gift for writing and explaining things about the weather making it so simple a third grader can understand...Look forward to his every post.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'm more inclined to believe the slightly more northerly track of the 500mb vort max as seen on the 00z GFS and RGEM (tracking it more toward Myrtle Beach) vs. the more southerly track of the NAM (tracking it toward Charleston). I've seen this bias with the NAM before...one result being that I believe the GFS and RGEM are more on track with showing precip extending farther up into Virginia on the north side of the precip shield. 00z RGEM looking quite moist in NC... If only later in December or January ........................SIGH. What an awesome looking low for the southern apps. (and others too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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