November Discussion

[NCSNOW]

30 IMBY. 4th a.m. in a row with a hard freeze or frost. I'm just passing peak out here in the countryside while in town everything is peaking leaf wise. These early steady cold shots have the hardiest 4 bradford pear trees on earth that reside in my yard starting to flip the switch alot quicker than normal. This is good news since they are past 10 years old and for their survival need to be bare by Dec 1st in order to avoid any frozen precip like we had the first week of December 2002. Peeking at the 6z GFS, looks like another coastal low is set to run the seaboard early-mid next week. It will be mostly rain, but it draws attention that we may be seeing alot of Noreasters this winter season. I just hope some of them have their genesis as Miller A type storms as oppessed to Miller B's that form off Hatteras like this one will probably do.

[Brick Tamland]

Someone is already running for weenie of the year? Brick better get his grass roots movement going

I will always be the People's Weenie.

This guy is just annoying... Brick can be slightly amusing at times.

Thanks!

[MountainMarvel]

Down to 31 here at 8 a.m. That's four mornings in a row sub freezing.... Heavy frost again.

[strongwxnc]

Great photo sir. I always love to grab the sun bouncing off anything frozen.

Awesome!

Down to 31 here at 8 a.m. That's four mornings in a row sub freezing.... Heavy frost again.

[mjpayne44]

Finally got our first frost here in Columbia, as I noticed this morning before driving to work around 7:15am ET.

[DaculaWeather]

Looking at a blizzard out in KS, NE, and CO

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2285.html

[mjpayne44]

Yep, along with small chances of snow in northern Oklahoma as it advances eastward. I'm surely glad I moved from that region---winters out there can be tough

[WFFaithful]

Great photo MM!

[FoothillsNC]

Looking at a blizzard out in KA, NE, and CO

http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md2285.html

Yep, I've been watching this one for a few days, and that stout upper low is going to hold in tact as a small but pretty intense rain maker as it comes rolling due east and then drops southeast across the Carolinas. By Friday morning, the higher elevations may switch to heavy snow or a mix, but that will be pretty high up as the cold air associated with the upper low is weakening. Yet the dynamics for precip and a comma head hold very much in tact...its too bad it won't be a little colder for the mountain areas, as it would be a nice little snow. But the rain amounts look to be amped up again for the Carolinas and extreme ne GA region early Friday as strong banding and easterly sfc flow right under the comma head accentuate lift along the eastern slopes and good stratiform rain spreads or fans out across most of NC and SC. We don't see many east or southeast dropping systems here, so once again, interesting storm and pattern, and decent rain amounts...which is always welcome here.

[DCMetroWinston]

Yep, along with small chances of snow in northern Oklahoma as it advances eastward. I'm surely glad I moved from that region---winters out there can be tough

Sounds like a dream to me

[MotoWeatherman]

Looking at a blizzard out in KS, NE, and CO

http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md2285.html

My cousin lives out there in Boulder and he just reported 7 1/2" to me from that deal.

[griteater]

12z NAM is showing a moist bullseye across the western 1/2 of NC Thurs night / early Fri, with the GSP lee low enhancing the precip. These kinds of systems can be a crap shoot though. It will be a good test for the 'upgraded' NAM

[Lee]

12z NAM is showing a moist bullseye across the western 1/2 of NC Thurs night / early Fri, with the GSP lee low enhancing the precip. These kinds of systems can be a crap shoot though. It will be a good test for the 'upgraded' NAM

Man! hope we get that track this winter with cold air in place. We used to get plastered here with that track.

[FoothillsNC]

12z NAM is showing a moist bullseye across the western 1/2 of NC Thurs night / early Fri, with the GSP lee low enhancing the precip. These kinds of systems can be a crap shoot though. It will be a good test for the 'upgraded' NAM

Its been in line with the other models too.Haven't seen the 12z run though, but the models hold a strong 5h system and brings it due east across TN valley then drops into SC, that usually does NC and upstate (much of the Carolinas really) quite well with enhanced rains spiraling in easterly upslope style.

Man! hope we get that track this winter with cold air in place. We used to get plastered here with that track.

Yep, the biggest snowstorm on record here did just like this track is doing, back in 1969. It would be interesting to get this kind of stout system come at us from this way when its in Jan or Feb. The trajectory of the system means as it pivots southeast once its near AVL, usually keeps moderate to heavy precip going a longer period of time in the nw piedmont of NC, even when others clear out or dryslot. So, some area just north of the track will bank up to 1.5" or more in rain probably. btw, kudos to GFS from showing this nearly verbatim from over 7 days ago.

[buckeyefan1]

Finally got our first frost here in Columbia, as I noticed this morning before driving to work around 7:15am ET.

Welcome to the SE forum

First frost was on Sunday

[FoothillsNC]

nice little temp. contrast with this system by early Friday. Upper 30s under the upper low in HSV and southern Apps, but low 60's central and eastern SC.

The GFS is coming in similarly, by tom. evening the precip in GA really picks up esp around and north of ATL and points north and east to the western Carolinas, with a surface low re-developing near GSP and heading across northern SC. Its putting a good rain event all across NC, esp. northern and western sections with over 1" and 1.75" or 2" in sw VA. Plenty of .50" and greater in much of north GA and the Carolnas, including the coast where more enhancement as the system pulls moisture back inland. and may drop around 2" there.

[november rain]

Whats the prospect of severe weather in the SE late Thur and during the overnight ?

[griteater]

12z Canadian RGEM is also very moist from NE GA through central NC (and probably into eastern NC if you were to extrapolate past where the model ends at 48 hrs)

[FoothillsNC]

todays run of ECMWF has a lot of closed lows around the northern hemisphere. I don't ever recall it showing this many, I counted about 9 very strong closed lows, not including the deep troughs. Not sure what this means, other than we're in an extremely amplified flow pattern and if it continues through November, we'll have more blockbuster snowstorms somewhere concentrated in areas that get on the proper side of these strong bundles of energy. The models have it getting much colder beyond 7 days. Pretty amazing how many strong closed lows have already happened in the last month, and what's being shown to come.

[POWERSTROKE]

todays run of ECMWF has a lot of closed lows around the northern hemisphere. I don't ever recall it showing this many, I counted about 9 very strong closed lows, not including the deep troughs. Not sure what this means, other than we're in an extremely amplified flow pattern and if it continues through November, we'll have more blockbuster snowstorms somewhere concentrated in areas that get on the proper side of these strong bundles of energy. The models have it getting much colder beyond 7 days. Pretty amazing how many strong closed lows have already happened in the last month, and what's being shown to come.

I like the way you talk. I believe when it rains on friday we will start testing out salters and snow plows on trucks to make sure all are ready for the winter.

[FoothillsNC]

My call on the Thursday Night/Friday rain, centered on Carolinas and Ga/east TN region. The models look reasonable, but the biggest question is where the max 2" amounts could be. I think ne GA to the eastern flank of the Blue Ridge in NC will be a spot, and again on the Outer Banks and Coastal SC/NC border areas as the system pulls copious moisture back inland. Any subtle shift in the track of the 7h spin on this system will change things and bring in a dryslot (which will happen anyway as with comma head lows). The GFS was a smidge further north than what I 'm going with, and I'm antsy to go against it too much.

[buckeyefan1]

My call on the Thursday Night/Friday rain, centered on Carolinas and Ga/east TN region. The models look reasonable, but the biggest question is where the max 2" amounts could be. I think ne GA to the eastern flank of the Blue Ridge in NC will be a spot, and again on the Outer Banks and Coastal SC/NC border areas as the system pulls copious moisture back inland. Any subtle shift in the track of the 7h spin on this system will change things and bring in a dryslot (which will happen anyway as with comma head lows). The GFS was a smidge further north than what I 'm going with, and I'm antsy to go against it too much.

Looks good Robert I'm not expecting much here, but hope to gather enough sprinkles to reach the 1/4" mark

[valkhorn]

todays run of ECMWF has a lot of closed lows around the northern hemisphere. I don't ever recall it showing this many, I counted about 9 very strong closed lows, not including the deep troughs. Not sure what this means, other than we're in an extremely amplified flow pattern and if it continues through November, we'll have more blockbuster snowstorms somewhere concentrated in areas that get on the proper side of these strong bundles of energy. The models have it getting much colder beyond 7 days. Pretty amazing how many strong closed lows have already happened in the last month, and what's being shown to come.

It's the models just sensing variability in a usually turbulent time of the year. I did mention something before the last snowstorm in the northeast that I thought we'd start into more of a zonal pattern for the SE for a little while until at least the 10th of November. I still think this is the case, and I think even though rain will be in and out of the picture for some of us the next shot of cold air will be between Nov. 10th and 20th, and my guess is around the 12th. Of course due to climatology it will be a little colder than the last front, so I'd say upper 20s are a safe bet for lows with the next one across the top half of the SE, with highs mostly in the 50s in MS, AL, GA, and 30s and 40s in TN and NC - if that makes sense. I don't think it'll be cold enough for valley snow or any SE snow until December.

[FoothillsNC]

It's the models just sensing variability in a usually turbulent time of the year. I did mention something before the last snowstorm in the northeast that I thought we'd start into more of a zonal pattern for the SE for a little while until at least the 10th of November. I still think this is the case, and I think even though rain will be in and out of the picture for some of us the next shot of cold air will be between Nov. 10th and 20th, and my guess is around the 12th. Of course due to climatology it will be a little colder than the last front, so I'd say upper 20s are a safe bet for lows with the next one across the top half of the SE, with highs mostly in the 50s in MS, AL, GA, and 30s and 40s in TN and NC - if that makes sense. I don't think it'll be cold enough for valley snow or any SE snow until December.

well with the close call recently in just nw NC and south central VA, I don't know if you can say that, especially considering how ampped the pattern is. And as for being zonal, that just isn't panning out for very long. Each time the models latch on to a small scale shortwave, it amps up and becomes a bigger deal than once thought. The zonal flow isn't lasting very long at a time, there's just so many s/w in the flow, and that really doesn't look to end. I will say the SE is probably going to warm up a good bit next week with the trough in the West and Plains, with another major storm or 2 for the Plains and Rockies, which will possible come our way as yet another closed low. For now, the closed lows are stealing the show. I don't remember seeing this many in the Fall, not only for the US, but for the globe. They just won't quit. However Fall and Spring are the times for those, so they should ease up in December (theoretically).

[buckeyefan1]

It's the models just sensing variability in a usually turbulent time of the year. I did mention something before the last snowstorm in the northeast that I thought we'd start into more of a zonal pattern for the SE for a little while until at least the 10th of November. I still think this is the case, and I think even though rain will be in and out of the picture for some of us the next shot of cold air will be between Nov. 10th and 20th, and my guess is around the 12th. Of course due to climatology it will be a little colder than the last front, so I'd say upper 20s are a safe bet for lows with the next one across the top half of the SE, with highs mostly in the 50s in MS, AL, GA, and 30s and 40s in TN and NC - if that makes sense. I don't think it'll be cold enough for valley snow or any SE snow until December.

It would be best if you quit thinking, guessing, and betting

[FoothillsNC]

After we get done with this event, strong sw flow and a series of strong disturbances come into the Southern and Central Plains and Midwest. The GFS is showing a setup that might just be too much rain. Its something to watch for those folks. A lot of times GFS is pretty good on major large scale rain events, even this far out. But again, it could be more progressive than its showing, which would cut down totals. I think the ECMWF was also showing that system turning into a possible cutoff and coming toward the Southeast later next week. This is kind of far out though, but here's a very rough guess.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

It would be best if you quit thinking, guessing, and betting

+1

[dsaur]

After we get done with this event, strong sw flow and a series of strong disturbances come into the Southern and Central Plains and Midwest. The GFS is showing a setup that might just be too much rain. Its something to watch for those folks. A lot of times GFS is pretty good on major large scale rain events, even this far out. But again, it could be more progressive than its showing, which would cut down totals. I think the ECMWF was also showing that system turning into a possible cutoff and coming toward the Southeast later next week. This is kind of far out though, but here's a very rough guess.

Hope some of that "too much" finds me. I need it badly. I had frost that I saw on Sun. and I'm pretty sure we had some a day or two before, but it has been in the 30s so I've been sleeping real good and can't vouch for it....but the frost is about all the moisture I'm seeing, so big "too much" rains would be great

Last years 1st frost was NOv 7th by the way. Still haven't hit freezing, but getting frost is a good thing. Looking back, most 1st frosts don't come until Nov. down here. Just 5, now 6 since 1991 in Oct. or earlier. T

[lugnuts]

My first post but just gotta say it.....

Valkhorn will get banned is my forecasat....Seriously just STFU....My god man,You're talking to trained professionals who have probably forgot more about the weather than you will ever know....If you would stand in the mirrow and read what you post you SHOULD see just how stupid you sound...Jesus Christ Allmighty enough already...

[FoothillsNC]

You can't base patterns on flukes or otherwise all you'll have is confirmation bias. What we've seen already, at least for Oct 1st, was below normal yes, but didn't really shatter any records from what I could tell. The front after that was only slightly below normal compared to what's typical for middle October. That's why I don't take people seriously when they try to base individual storms and storm tracks off of analogs which go off of average temperature, because flukes aren't used in determining statistical trends, and predicting flukes is mere guesswork at this point. That's why unless some extreme fluke of nature is 36 hours away, I probably won't predict it. When the storm hit new england last weekend, I didn't even buy it until about 24 hours out to be honest, and pretty much stuck to snow for upstate PA and NY for a long while - even before other people latched onto at least the possibility of some snow for that time frame in this forum.

Well I'm not being confrontational with you, in fact I was with you last week when I saw the possibility of a major snow, well before it was being mentioned and almost gave you kudos for also seeing that. I usually forecast in a lot of different ways, even if that includes a "fluke" event, if the pattern or other things I'm looking at support it, I will call it. Turns out I was too busy and had other obligations last week to give that storm the big attention it deserves. But predicting a fluke is not really guesswork as you call it. I've seen many big events across the nation over the years, and it was not a surprise to me, maybe it was a huge suprise to the models or to some forecasters, but does that make it a "fluke"? If you live by the models you'll die by the models. I won't go into my whole overall forecasting methodology, but theres a lot to it. And I am not ashamed of my record , but if you don't take my forecasts seriously, thats fine, and no hard feelings. But I'm comfortable with it.