Gastonwxman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 More detail for the watch area: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 430 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN GEORGIA WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 430 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS FROM UPSTATE SC INTO ERN GA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMERGING FROM THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THIS MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN A 50+ KT SWLY LLJ BEING FOCUSED ACROSS THE REGION...ENHANCING ALREADY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. GIVEN THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AND LCL WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Wow, things are really rolling now. Could be a long night for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Patterson Springs is where he calls home... Hope Robert is safe, he should have some first hand accounts of this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Looks like north side of Shelby might get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Cleveland County / Shelby, NC storm rotation has weakened according to Panovich on Ch36 out of Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Patterson Springs is where he calls home... ok, thank you, so he should have been a good bit to the south Latest reflectivity shot out of GSP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Folks in Union County should really take this seriously, this thing is winding up tight again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I'm in Union county SC near Jonesville and can hear thunder but I think the worst will go about 10 miles southeast of me. I'm afraid the city of Union gets hit with this cell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Wow, sry haven't posted in awhile... Impressive Disco out of ILM, this evening... Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 318 PM EST Wednesday Nov 16 2011 Synopsis... a cold front over the Tennessee Valley will slide eastward bringing showers and a chance of thunderstorms...including severe weather...tonight through Thursday morning. Much cooler and drier air will follow late Thursday and Friday. High pressure will move overhead with temperatures moderating during the weekend. A second front will drop south through the area Tuesday. && Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... as of 300 PM Wednesday...tropical warmth and humidity will come to a crashing halt late tonight as a strong cold front arrives from the west. The transition from a tropical to an Arctic airmass will not be an easy one...and severe thunderstorms appear possible across the eastern Carolinas tonight. Instability parameters are impressive for a cool-season event. Although surface cape falls away to a few hundred j/kg after dark with 75-100 j/kg of inhibition to overcome...starting to lift a parcel from around 925 mb yields 600-1500 j/kg of uninhibited cape aided by reasonably steep middle and upper level lapse rates. Unlike our typical wintertime "severe shower" scenarios there could actually be deep (40+ kft) convection tonight. Wind shear parameters are also impressive: 50-60 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear...200-300 m^2/s^2 0-3 km helicity...and 50 knots wind speeds within 2500 feet of the ground all point toward organized storms...perhaps even supercells...with the potential for wind damage and tornadoes. Synoptically a 300 mb jet streak will move east through the Middle-Atlantic States tonight. This will place the eastern Carolinas within the right-entrance region of the jet streak aiding in deep-layer lift. Timing-wise...the last three runs (15-16-17z) of the hrrr rapid update model all place the leading edge of the squall line in western Darlington County at 7 PM...moving into Florence... Dillon and Lumberton by 8 PM...and to the coast between 10 PM and midnight. Our highest probability of precipitation (80-90%) extend from Florence...Marion and Myrtle Beach northward through southeastern North Carolina. Lower probability of precipitation (50-60%) are forecast south into the Georgetown area where this first batch of convection may be too far north for impacts. Additional showers and possibly thunderstorms may develop behind this first batch...associated with subtle upper disturbances working on residual elevated instability. This second batch of convective activity could continue up until the time of the frontal passage around daybreak Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will be tricky with the surface cold front likely arriving around 12z. We are forecasting middle 60s on the coast and 59-63 inland...however there is significant bust potential in either direction if the front is only a couple hours faster or slower than is currently forecast. && Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/... as of 300 PM Wednesday...concern during the period revolves around cold frontal passage and associated convection early Thursday...followed by a drastic drop in temperatures which will make it feel once again like early winter. Strong cold front will be just inside western edge of the County Warning Area Thursday morning and rapidly moving east. The uncertainty with strength of convection revolves around the fact that frontal passage is occurring at a non-ideal time with respect to instability. However...parameters do suggest that convection will be ongoing at the beginning of the period...especially across the eastern zones. Ridge of low level Theta-E air remains in place through Thursday morning along with steep middle level lapse rates and precipitable waters near 1.5 inches. Additionally...some positive vorticity advection near a vorticity lobe trailing through the eastern Carolinas...locally enhanced diffluence in the right entrance region of an exiting upper jet...and the cold front itself will help force some lift and keep convection going through late morning. 12 hour sref precipitation probs do not drop below 50 percent until after 03z Friday...so although the severe threat after sunrise Thursday appears limited will keep thunderstorm mention through late morning along the coast...with some light rain possible until early afternoon. Frontal passage occurs across the entire County Warning Area by the afternoon bringing an end to precipitation through the remainder of the short term. Drying will occur behind front as high pressure builds into the region...but Post frontal cloud cover/stratus will exist through much of Thursday before clearing on Friday. The highest temperatures of the period will occur Thursday morning along and ahead of the front...dropping rapidly in the afternoon as strong cold air advection develops. Large bust potential on maximum temperatures Thursday depending on exact timing of frontal passage...but expect temperatures around 60 inland...middle 60s at the coast at daybreak Thursday...then falling through the day. Mex/mav in agreement with maximum temperatures Friday in the middle 50s...but guidance has a tendency to over forecast highs the day after a strong frontal passage. Will trend maxes down to the low/middle 50s...but note this may still be too warm. Mins each night will be in the middle 30s at the coast...around 30 in the colder spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I'm in Union county SC near Jonesville and can hear thunder but I think the worst will go about 10 miles southeast of me. I'm afraid the city of Union gets hit with this cell though. Jonesville looks to be ok. Anyone is Union and south should def be in there safe areas now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Augusta area and southward should really be keeping a close eye on things right now. "Train" of cells approaching that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Last two frames of the Union cell looking nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 This storm looks mean in SC. Nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 TOR needed for Union County SC as tornado was reported close to the Laurens area. Looks like a possible tornado heading near the airport just south of Union...I certainly hope, if it is a tornado, it moves south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Getting closer..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Looks like a possible tornado heading near the airport just south of Union...I certainly hope, if it is a tornado, it moves south of the city. Looks really bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Don't see a TOR for Lincoln and Iredell counties in NC yet...fast developing and cyclic storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 well I've got a lot of catching up to do. I had to take care of parents this morning then the afternoon in Cherryville, so I've been out of the loop all day. The scud type clouds are really racing just above the ground here now, and I've had .93" of rain, and a decent thunderstorm a few minutes ago. Hope everyone stays safe tonight, its looking rough. By the way this is the event the models missed if you looked for explicitly on GFS and ECMWF about a week or 8 days ago I think. It had us in zonal type flow but the southern stream 5H closed low in Baja got ejected nicely. The GFS was first to catch on to it later on and I was skeptical of a non-event since the Bermuda ridge was nicely placed with supressed westerlies out west and strong s/w embedded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Getting closer..... Stay safe buckeyefan1 we don't need to have a Déjà Vu -------------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Getting closer..... That cell coming though AGS is def one to watch for our area buckeye! Part of a line of supercells looking to impact areas along the I-26 corridor between CAE and CHS this evening if they hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Updated: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Stay safe buckeyefan1 we don't need to have a Déjà Vu -------------- Will do oldlogin ...I've already checked "tornado" off my bucket list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Here's Augusta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 That cell coming though AGS is def one to watch for our area buckeye! Part of a line of supercells looking to impact areas along the I-26 corridor between CAE and CHS this evening if they hold together. Ft. Gordon is getting rocked at the moment...waiting patiently for the line to get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The cell down near Augusta, SC looks pretty bad: Richmond County, GA Tornadic Thunderstorm 64 dBZ Severe Hail: 60% Hail: 90% Hail Size: 1.25" Top: 36,000 ft. VIL: 46 kg/m² Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 It looks like the Union storm misses the more populated areas of town. Still passed through an area with scattered homes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Thankfully at the moment CLT looks like it's out of the line of fire with this first round. Hopefully everyone else stays safe out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Still a good area of rotation with this cell south of AGS... wouldnt be surprised to see CAE issue a TOR Warning shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Augusta fro the Columbia radar, the previous image was from Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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