Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Matthew East tweet - "Not liking the looks of the new RPM model run. It keeps things discrete later today as opposed to linear. Will watch closely." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Seems like I have gotten robbed a little bit with all the high rain totals around me. We have had .57 in Weaverville this am. Looks like some more is on the way. At this point I will take what I can get. To those who may battle severe weather today....be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Track of the current tornado warning in Alabama will take it just south of Birmingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The poor folks in west Alabama are going to get bombarded again by severe weather... The shear is a good 40 knots and Storm Relative shear is up over 300... These storms have already produced damage across Mississippi and Louisiana and continue to march to the northeast, closer to the better shear environment... Let's hope it doesn't get too bad for them out there! I've been watching the trends here locally and I'm getting a little concerned about the possibility of a tornado or two for East Alabama/West Georgia. Only reason I'm concerned is because we could see enough clearing in the clouds to bump temperatures into the low to mid 80s. That would be ample enough to fire off a few strong storms! Our only saving grace is the surface low isn't forecast to strengthen all that much... Never the less, a few severe thunderstorms are likely and winds up to 70 mph will be experienced by some... Those in the eastern Carolinas better watch the sky VERY carefully this evening... As I could see a few tornadoes spin up with the STP elevated some and enough heating, highs will get into the mid to upper 70s. It'll be interesting to see the radar trends as we go into the early afternoon hours. Somewhat skeptical yesterday I am starting to grow concerned that this may be worse than originally thought... Updated day 1 disco is out from the SPC and the slgt hatch has once again been broadened on both the north and south sides. SVR reports were min out of TX but picked up early this morning with 5 possible touchdowns in LA & AL, and a new MD that just went up. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS VLY/ERN GULF CST INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CONUS IN RECENT DAYS WILL AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS JET STREAKS NOW OVER AB...MT...AND WY SWEEP RAPIDLY SEWD...RESULTING IN A DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE LWR OH VLY BY 12Z THU. IN THE MEANTIME...UPR IMPULSE THAT CROSSED E TX YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN STRONG AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING SW FLOW OVER THE SERN STATES. THE MAIN PART OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS OVER MS ATTM...AND SHOULD REACH PIEDMONT NC BY EARLY EVE AS A HIGH LVL JET ENTRANCE REGION DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH. AT THE SFC...SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AND PW AROUND 1.50 INCHES/...WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS TO VICINITY OF STNRY FRONT OVER VA. SFC WAVE NOW OVER NRN MS/AL SHOULD REDEVELOP ENE ALONG THE FRONT INTO CNTRL VA LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE CAROLINA CST AS A COLD FRONT LATER THU MORNING. ...LWR MS VLY/ERN GULF CST INTO CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC... BAND OF SCTD SUPERCELLS ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER SE LA/ERN MS AND WRN AL LIKELY WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A WHILE LONGER THIS MORNING AS THE AXIS EDGES SLOWLY EWD IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING UPR IMPULSE. COMBINATION OF RICH MOISTURE INFLOW AND STRONG LOW LVL SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO FOSTER LOW LVL ROTATION/ISOLD TORNADOES AS THE FEATURES CROSSES AL /REF WWS 887 888/. WITH TIME...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING MAY FOSTER REJUVENATION OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS STORMS. MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER...HEATING WILL SUPPORT EVENTUAL ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER PARTS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS...S AND E OF SHALLOW RAIN-REINFORCED BOUNDARY ALONG THE SRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKENING OF UPR IMPULSE IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. BUT COMBINATION OF EVEN WEAK DESTABILIZATION /SBCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ WITH STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES /40 KT SW 850 MB FLOW BENEATH 60-70 KT WSW FLOW AT 500 MB/ LIKELY WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. THESE MAY ORGANIZE INTO BROKEN BANDS THAT WILL POSE A RISK FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND NARROW SWATHS OF DMGG WIND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS/VA. ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY FORM TNGT THROUGH EARLY THU CLOSER TO THE CST AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL JET ENTRANCE REGION. FARTHER NW...OTHER TSTMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG MERGING COLD FRONTS OVER THE TN VLY...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY. ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 11/16/2011 I went through the CIPS analog guidance based on the 11/15 12z GFS t-stepped at 36 hrs and these are the svr reports based on the top 15 analogs. Keep in mind most of the analogs had 0 svr reports, and more than half occurred in a month other than Nov; 6 in Dec, 6 in Nov & 3 in Oct. The best match I could find is 11/5/1992, it is the #3 analog overall, and #1 in terms of PMSL, 2mTMP and 2mDWP (all by a good margin). The only issue I see is the H3 match, where it falls in at #9. In 1992 the 300mb jet was more potent running up through the MS Valley into northern New England. Here are the svr reports for this analog, and I feel that given some clearing E NC may see something slightly more subdued than this tonight. The 15z SREF from yesterday was picking up on some enhanced supercell potential for GA, SC and NC. The 3z run has come in much more bullish showing composite parameters >9, as a mean, for the northern half of GA, almost all of SC, and NC bounded by I-77&95. This run even hatches a 12 right over CLT at 6pm tonight which is impressive! Moving east into the Coastal Plain of NC tonight, the potential for tornados is the greatest. While we are starting the day with OVC conditions, most of the guidance has areas along and east of 95 clearing out with 25-35% cloud cover after 12pm. That is going to be the determining factor, and really impossible to predict until it actually happens as often times the clearing does not happen, and the event does not materialize as a result. However, if we do clear out, folks need to keep the wx radios close tonight because all one has to do is go back to the Kenly event in 2008 to see that even these low end EF0-EF2 touchdowns can take lives. That being said, this is the sig tornado parameter based on the 3z SREF for ENC tonight, solid hatch of 4 showing up around midnight, 3 hrs prior it is even over Florence. When looking at the mean sig tor param, 50% of the members have E NC as a 5 or better, the highest value used on the SPC site. 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Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Another tweet from met Matthew East - "Looks like a little meso-low is moving through central Alabama. Will need to watch this feature later in the Carolinas." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 From well-respected severe weather met out of Alabama... "Instability is increasing across the region (in Alabama), but the shear is starting to rapidly decrease. For the most part, this is going as expected. Still, a couple of isolated, weak, short-lived tornadoes remain possible for at least a few more hours, before transitioning to predominantly a damaging wind threat. Still think the main threat east of I-75 into the Carolinas will be damaging straight-line winds." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 From well-respected severe weather met out of Alabama... "Instability is increasing across the region (in Alabama), but the shear is starting to rapidly decrease. For the most part, this is going as expected. Still, a couple of isolated, weak, short-lived tornadoes remain possible for at least a few more hours, before transitioning to predominantly a damaging wind threat. Still think the main threat east of I-75 into the Carolinas will be damaging straight-line winds." Do you mean Highway 75 here in union county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Do you mean Highway 75 here in union county? He's referring to I-75 going through Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 He's referring to I-75 going through Atlanta Haha This is why I have a GPS! Thanks for clarifying this.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Some hope starting to appear more often on the 6Z GFS... Maybe that storm can help begin to change our pattern, otherwise it's more of the same with healthy doses of rain and warm, followed by a quick, but sharp cold snap. Looking at other maps clearly shows a -PNA, +NAO, and the firehose still turned on in the Pacific. I am thinking it may well be mid December before this flips, which is ok with me. Doing outside stuff in November and early to mid December is a plus in my book. This year may very well have more variability, meaning less sustained cold, but I think the chances of bigger storm systems goes up as well. Patience grasshoppers. Hoping for minimal damage today for our brothers and sisters to my south having to face severe weather today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 flash of lightning this morning around 830 while leaving deer stand. One crack of thunder and that was it. Just heavy rain since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 The line looks quasi-linear in AL but appears to be changing to more discreet as cells break out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Tornado Watch just went up for parts of Georgia, including my location. Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 945 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011 TORNADO WATCH 889 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS GAC015-045-047-053-055-057-063-067-077-083-085-089-097-111-113- 115-117-121-123-129-135-139-143-145-149-151-187-199-213-215-223- 227-231-233-247-255-259-263-281-285-291-295-311-313-170000- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0889.111116T1545Z-111117T0000Z/ GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLAYTON COBB COWETA DADE DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS FANNIN FAYETTE FLOYD FORSYTH FULTON GILMER GORDON GWINNETT HALL HARALSON HARRIS HEARD HENRY LUMPKIN MERIWETHER MURRAY MUSCOGEE PAULDING PICKENS PIKE POLK ROCKDALE SPALDING STEWART TALBOT TOWNS TROUP UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 RPM valid at 5:00 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I've gotten a half inch so far. I wasn't expecting that much before the front came through, so I'm ahead. I my own mind, anyway. The bad news is the sun is out, and it has been near 80 the past few days in mid Nov...and a squall line is approaching Oh, well, maybe CandyMan gets to see some hail, finally. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 .27 here since midnight, and .67 for the storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 It's quickly becoming an active afternoon! There are a few tornado warnings up and a few reports of damage coming in from them too.... The southern end of this line is coalescing and becoming linear in fashion. This also means it's starting to bow in sections.... That bow is heading right for Montgomery. It will also head for my area, so HOPEFULLY I don't have to worry about tornado warnings... But you never know with the temps already well into the 70s and DPs near 70. The northern half of this line is becoming more discreet and will REALLY need to be watched for tornadoes, albeit smaller ones than the spring ones, in NW Georgia and into the Carolinas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Storm total of 2.13" here so far. 1.04" since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 It's quickly becoming an active afternoon! There are a few tornado warnings up and a few reports of damage coming in from them too.... The southern end of this line is coalescing and becoming linear in fashion. This also means it's starting to bow in sections.... That bow is heading right for Montgomery. It will also head for my area, so HOPEFULLY I don't have to worry about tornado warnings... But you never know with the temps already well into the 70s and DPs near 70. The northern half of this line is becoming more discreet and will REALLY need to be watched for tornadoes, albeit smaller ones than the spring ones, in NW Georgia and into the Carolinas... Here's the picture for most of the SE. Dynamics look poised to explode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 didnt have time to check the actual amount of rain, but a quick glance looked llike over 1.25" it was pouring when i went to pour and also this morning now we need some rain like this when our temps are much lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Full sun broken out here in eastern NC gonna be a hot one today currently 73/64, timing of the storms going to be important I think and them getting here several hrs after sunset might be all that prevents us from a really nasty day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Sun is out and shining brightly along the escarpment...normally these types of severe weather affects areas along I-85 in NC/SC...now I wonder if we get a cell or two to make its way to the I-40 cooridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Sun is out and heating underway as of 11am, about an hour ahead of schedule, with PC skies currently... Eastern US 1km vis valid 11:15am EST shows a couple pockets of clearing that may work into the upstate of SC and over towards Charlotte during the afternoon. Just looked at some of the experimental rapid-refresh products from NCEP and most take a robust segment (linear in nature) through RDU later tonight and up into SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The weak rotation near Montgomery is poised to pass near downtown within 10 mins... Hopefully there's no tornado on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Suspected tornado about to cross into Georgia in the Rome / Cedartown area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Still thick cover to you south Dan. Let the radar watching start! Sun is out and shining brightly along the escarpment...normally these types of severe weather affects areas along I-85 in NC/SC...now I wonder if we get a cell or two to make its way to the I-40 cooridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 One would think at the very least this is producing a funnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Great Disco from Brad Panovich in your in the Carolinas http://wxbrad.com/?p=2278 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Starting to see 2nd and 3rd lines of storms developing behind the first wave that will be coming though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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